1988 Wasn't That Bad

[Akno21]

If you look at the percentages for 1988, and everything within five points, Dukakis could easily be over 200 EV's. He came close in CA, IL, PA, MO and MD, among others. Thoughts?

[Alcon]

You're right. The only states that Bush hit 60% in were Florida, Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. The only state in there that is not very conservative is obviously Florida.

[Sam Spade]

Bush 41 won Broward and West Palm Beach County in Florida that year. (!!)  Only black-majority Gadsden County in northern Florida voted against Bush that year in Florida, by a measly 380 votes.

Of course, the exurbs that dominated this year weren't as powerful as they were before.

Bush in 1988 did well in older suburbs, rural areas and even some inner cities (and certainly did better than any Rep candidate has afterwards).  This explains his broad state-by-state success, without the large gaps between rural and inner city, older suburb vs. newer suburb that we've seen in the past few elections.

[dazzleman]

1988 was the last election of its era.  After 1988, there was a massive shift toward the Democrats in older suburbs, and cities became even more heavily Democratic than they were before.

The country has become much more geographically divided since 1988.  Nobody thought in terms of "red states" and "blue states" back then.

[Nym90]

1988 was the last election of its era. After 1988, there was a massive shift toward the Democrats in older suburbs, and cities became even more heavily Democratic than they were before.

The country has become much more geographically divided since 1988. Nobody thought in terms of "red states" and "blue states" back then.

Indeed, and likewise rural areas became much more Republican. Dukakis did fairly well in many rural areas, especially in the Midwest. He did much better than Kerry in many rural counties.

Bush on the other hand achieved percentages that his son can only dream of in many cities and especially suburban areas, particularly in the Northeast.

I think what we've mainly seen is people voting more on social issues and less on economic issues. In the 1980's wealthier urban areas voted Republican and poorer rural areas largely voted Democratic, both due to economic issues.

[True Democrat]

The farm crisis really helped Dukakis in the midwest.

[rbt48]

Also, remember that before the Republican convention that year, Dukakis had double digit leads in the polls.  The conventional wisdom was baffled that with a strong economy, the incumbent party could be trailing.  After the RNC, the polls did a complete flip-flop and Dukakis never recovered.