Do you think Gaddafi will hold on ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since things seem to be getting more and more tough, with Gaddafi taking a city, then rebels retaking it etc, the outcome of Libyan protests seems pretty hard to predict. What do you think about it ?

Personally, I have a hard time thinking that Gaddafi could defeat the rebels, while the latter seem to be close of taking Tripoli. But maybe it's wishful thinking...

[Zarn]

Stalemate might be the near future result. Eventually, I think the rebels will win.

[John Dibble]

Stalemate might be the near future result. Eventually, I think the rebels will win.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Lean No: the Rebels are a lot more likely to take Tripoli than Gaddafi is to take back the East.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In the unlikely event Gaddafi holds on, it will be as leader of Tripolitania, not of Libya.  I don't see him regaining Cyrenaica.

[The Mikado]

Keep your eyes on Sirt.  Now that the rebels hold Ras Lanuf, they'll be making a push at it.  It's CQ's home town, and if it falls, he's in deep s**t.

[GMantis]

Keep your eyes on Sirt.  Now that the rebels hold Ras Lanuf, they'll be making a push at it.  It's CQ's home town, and if it falls, he's in deep s**t.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/168362.html
No confirmation and it's rather doubtful, but the timing is still ironic

[opebo]

I voted for the first choice, but I cannot say why. To say this vote represented 'optimism' would probably not be allowed..

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You know what would be ironic? Great Socialist People's Trypolitanian Arab Jamahiriya and Sanussi Kingdom of Cyraneica.

[Zarn]

I voted for the first choice, but I cannot say why. To say this vote represented 'optimism' would probably not be allowed..

I find this post rather silly. Complain about no rights on a forum but then love a dictator for actually keeping people's rights out of their hands. Great stuff.

[opebo]

I voted for the first choice, but I cannot say why. To say this vote represented 'optimism' would probably not be allowed..

I find this post rather silly. Complain about no rights on a forum but then love a dictator for actually keeping people's rights out of their hands. Great stuff.

It isn't 'silly'.  It might be hypocritical, but that isn't the same thing as 'silly'.  I champion the right to express aprobation for Gadaffi and disapprobation for his bearded foes, but I certainly don't believe in democracy or human rights.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't really know enough about Libya to tell. He's clearly in a lot of trouble though; the rapid speed at which news spreads now makes his position look stronger than it actually is as a week is now an eternity in the news.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This could go on for a while, but I doubt that he'll still be in power a couple of years from now.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Lean no. For some reason, Qaddafi's counter-offensive reminds me of the Battle of the Bulge.

[phk]

Of course. Barring outside intervention equilibrium will end up being a low-scale civil war a la pre-9/11 Afghanistan.

[Torie]

How can he hold on with no oil money? And I assume that Iran is not sending him tons of money, or anyone else. He's done.

[phk]

How can he hold on with no oil money? And I assume that Iran is not sending him tons of money, or anyone else. He's done.

It's in Iran's interests to not send him money. At least as long as it wants to remain influential with the Lebanon's Shi'a community.

[Beet]

The Chinese and the Indians are still buying oil from Gaddafi. If the West wants to exert some pressure but won't commit to a no-fly zone, it could lean on these two countries to join the sanctions.

[Torie]

The Chinese and the Indians are still buying oil from Gaddafi. If the West wants to exert some pressure but won't commit to a no-fly zone, it could lean on these two countries to join the sanctions.

Gaddafi doesn't have physical possession of any oil fields at the moment does he? If he does, the supply line should certainly be cut off. I would be amazed if it hasn't.

[opebo]

How can he hold on with no oil money? And I assume that Iran is not sending him tons of money, or anyone else. He's done.

Why would Iran send him money?  He's fighting the Revolution they had in 1979.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How can he hold on with no oil money? And I assume that Iran is not sending him tons of money, or anyone else. He's done.

Why would Iran send him money?  He's fighting the Revolution they had in 1979.

Gaddafi and Hafez Al-Assad were actually the only Arab leaders, who supporter Iran over Iraq during the 1980s war.

[phk]

How can he hold on with no oil money? And I assume that Iran is not sending him tons of money, or anyone else. He's done.

Why would Iran send him money?  He's fighting the Revolution they had in 1979.

Gaddafi and Hafez Al-Assad were actually the only Arab leaders, who supporter Iran over Iraq during the 1980s war.

The problem than comes over the Musa al-Sadr situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump, seems like we have new developments to take into account.

[opebo]

Just saw a credible guy on BBC today (I think they identified him as an ex foreign secretary of the UK) who said he had always thought Gaddafi would win out, and that he doesn't think any foreign powers will intervene decisively.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yet he still hasn't been proven right, and hopefully won't.