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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2012 Senate Predictions
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Author Topic: 2012 Senate Predictions  (Read 6287 times)
R2D2 (Compulsive Hand Washing Edition)
20RP12
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« on: March 01, 2011, 07:09:44 pm »



Net Gains:

Republicans: +6
Democrats: +2
Independants: -1
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2011, 07:47:51 pm »

As it stands today if all incumbents running for reelection win their primaries....



>80%=Safe
>60%=Likely
>40%=Lean
>30%=Slight
Green=Pure Tossup
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2011, 10:44:31 pm »

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2011, 10:46:04 pm »
« Edited: March 01, 2011, 10:50:50 pm by George »

Dems -3
GOP +3
OH, NV as tossups
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2011, 11:02:52 pm »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2011, 04:44:40 am »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
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DS0816
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2011, 06:20:26 am »

If President Obama wins re-election in 2012 (and I predict he will), the Democrats will not lose majority control of the Senate.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2011, 01:41:27 pm »

If President Obama wins re-election in 2012 (and I predict he will), the Democrats will not lose majority control of the Senate.

Really? NE and ND have already as good as fallen.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2011, 02:01:26 pm »

Losing ND and NE can be offset with MA-assuming DEMs nominate a credible candidate. and NV-assuming DEMS nominate a credible candidate. ME is Snowe loses in the Republican primary.
MT,MO,and VA are pure tossup states.  Dems will probally hold onto OH and MI.
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Heimdal
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2011, 03:38:33 pm »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2011, 03:49:28 am »

I'd see republicans picking up 3 or 4 seats and democrats picking up 1 or 2, thus dems retaining a narrow majority. Of course, everything can happen for now.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2011, 08:43:41 am »
« Edited: March 03, 2011, 01:53:54 pm by Mechaman »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a newbie.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2011, 09:52:44 am »
« Edited: March 03, 2011, 09:54:26 am by George »

That's because Nevada has replaced Missouri as a swing state. Noticed in the last senate election Reid wond up winning and Carnahan lost. I say Nevada has very well replaced Missouri as a bellweather.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2011, 11:08:59 am »

That's because Nevada has replaced Missouri as a swing state. Noticed in the last senate election Reid wond up winning and Carnahan lost. I say Nevada has very well replaced Missouri as a bellweather.

Spot on analysis my friend.
Although I have to say that if there is any Senator who could probably retain their seat in an upset it's probably McCaskill (based on what I've seen and heard of her).  Tester could possibly retain his seat as well depending on the mood of the Montana electorate come election time.
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Heimdal
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« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2011, 12:41:46 pm »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.

I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2011, 01:34:08 pm »
« Edited: March 03, 2011, 01:42:52 pm by Mechaman »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.

I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.


Jesus dude, settle down.  I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here.  A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2011, 01:52:05 pm »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.

I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.


Jesus dude, settle down.  I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.


Yes, lets keep this friendly.
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Heimdal
HenryH
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« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2011, 04:22:25 pm »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.

I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.


Jesus dude, settle down.  I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here.  A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).

Hehe. I guess I didn't really read your post before I typed my response. The blame is all mine mate. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2011, 05:09:18 pm »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.

I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.


Jesus dude, settle down.  I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here.  A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).

Hehe. I guess I didn't really read your post before I typed my response. The blame is all mine mate. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

I could've said "newb" instead of "noob" (which in hindsight sounds offensive).
Whatever man, welcome to the forum.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2011, 05:48:42 pm »

Losing ND and NE can be offset with MA-assuming DEMs nominate a credible candidate. and NV-assuming DEMS nominate a credible candidate. ME is Snowe loses in the Republican primary.
MT,MO,and VA are pure tossup states.  Dems will probally hold onto OH and MI.

This exactly.  Also CT will have end up with a more reliable Dem senator.
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Heimdal
HenryH
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« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2011, 02:17:56 am »

I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.

Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.

I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.

This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.

I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.

I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.


Jesus dude, settle down.  I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here.  A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).

Hehe. I guess I didn't really read your post before I typed my response. The blame is all mine mate. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

I could've said "newb" instead of "noob" (which in hindsight sounds offensive).
Whatever man, welcome to the forum.

Regardless of that, thank you.
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