When will Mississippi shift into the Democratic column?

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

How long will it take for it's growing black population to swing the state into Democratic hands? They can't exactly lose any more ground amongst the white population.

[phk]

How long will it take for it's growing black population to swing the state into Democratic hands? They can't exactly lose any more ground amongst the white population.

Just play around with this by filling in the blanks.

(Black_Pop)*e^(Pop_Growth_Rate*Years) > (White_Pop)*e^(Pop_Growth_Rate*Years)

and the Years on the LHS is the number you want.

[Mjh]

Not anytime soon.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

They got 43% in 2008. As white elderly die off and black youth(not to mention white youth, who are more Democratic then average, even in Mississippi)become of voting age, I struggle to see how it could have not flipped to the Democrats by 2032.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Once all the racists die.

[tpfkaw]

Never, barring the possibility of platform shifts in the parties.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Never, barring the possibility of platform shifts in the parties.

How can you say that? Blacks are already the majority of Mississippi youth.

[Badlands17]

Yeah, basically when the electorate gets close to 50% white.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Yeah, basically when the electorate gets close to 50% white.

I think you can add Louisiana and Georgia to that.

[Nichlemn]

Depends how the various races continue to vote. I mean, if they all vote as they did in 2008, then Democrats will soon win every national election in a landslide, so the fact they win MS would be quite moot. I don't think that will happen though, because it doesn't jive with the median voter theorem. However, it's possible that blacks stay loyally Democratic while Hispanics and whites trend enough to keep Republicans competitive. So maybe Republicans might start losing the South while dominating the Midwest.

[Smash255]

Yeah, basically when the electorate gets close to 50% white.

I think you can add Louisiana and Georgia to that.

Louisiana yes, not as low in Georgia.  Keep in mind the margin in Georgia was 5% and you do have a bunch of white liberals in Atlanta and Athens.

[Nichlemn]

They got 43% in 2008. As white elderly die off and black youth(not to mention white youth, who are more Democratic then average, even in Mississippi)become of voting age, I struggle to see how it could have not flipped to the Democrats by 2032.

More Democratic than MS whites as a whole, yes... but still 81-18% McCain according to the CNN exit poll.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Depends how the various races continue to vote. I mean, if they all vote as they did in 2008, then Democrats will soon win every national election in a landslide, so the fact they win MS would be quite moot. I don't think that will happen though, because it doesn't jive with the median voter theorem. However, it's possible that blacks stay loyally Democratic while Hispanics and whites trend enough to keep Republicans competitive. So maybe Republicans might start losing the South while dominating the Midwest.

That certainly seems to be the case for whites... 20% of whites age 18-29 voted Obama vs only 10% for voters 45-64.

However, young blacks were even more Democratic leaning then older ones- so as the older generations die off we'll see decreased polarization amongst whites coupled with increased polarization(not that their's much room for more polarization, LOL) amongst blacks.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Once all the racists die.

This is mostly true, but even Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas failed to carry the Heart of Dixie.

Mississippi is, after all, the most racially polarized state in the nation. McCain won whites 90-10 and Obama won blacks 95-5, IIRC. Something along those lines. It's sad but you have a white man's party and a black man's party in Mississippi, so in order for the Democrats to carry the state, they'll have to win over a larger portion of the white vote.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Once all the racists die.

This is mostly true, but even Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas failed to carry the Heart of Dixie.

Mississippi is, after all, the most racially polarized state in the nation. McCain won whites 90-10 and Obama won blacks 95-5, IIRC. Something along those lines. It's sad but you have a white man's party and a black man's party in Mississippi, so in order for the Democrats to carry the state, they'll have to win over a larger portion of the white vote.

That or wait until Mississippi becomes Manjority-Minority like Hawaii, California, and Texas.

[DrScholl]

The state is likely to become majority-minority at some point, so I'd say it will be about 15 to 20 years before it changes columns.

[SvenssonRS]

2012. Just to preempt DSO.

[Person Man]

If I may update my outlandish, probably wrong, but very possible 2032 map-

30%- winner under 52%
50%- winner 52-57% or 5-15% margin
90%- winner over 57% or over 15% margin

[Del Tachi]

Never.

Even though blacks constitute close to 50% of the under 18 population, that doesn't mean that in 10-20 years the electorate will be half black.  Turnout amongst Mississippi's AA's is extremley low, in 2004 (which is more of a baseline) I believe it was 39%.  Also, as blacks continue the move up the social mobility ladder you can expect them to become slighty more GOP--especially in Mississippi.   

[Smash255]

Never.

Even though blacks constitute close to 50% of the under 18 population, that doesn't mean that in 10-20 years the electorate will be half black.  Turnout amongst Mississippi's AA's is extremley low, in 2004 (which is more of a baseline) I believe it was 39%.  Also, as blacks continue the move up the social mobility ladder you can expect them to become slighty more GOP--especially in Mississippi.   

According to Exit Polls blacks made up 34% of the vote in 2004, so they do have lower turnout than whites, but not much lower.  Also as far as social mobility, I don't see how that results in more GOP, typically better educated and middle to upper middle class blacks have higher turnout than poor blacks, and then really do not vote GOP at a higher rate.