Texas demographer: "It's basically over for Anglos [in Texas]"

[Lief 🗽]

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2011/02/texas_demograph.html

Looking at population projections for Texas, demographer Steve Murdock concludes: "It's basically over for Anglos."

Two of every three Texas children are now non-Anglo and the trend line will become even more pronounced in the future, said Murdock, former U.S. Census Bureau director and now director of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University.

Today's Texas population can be divided into two groups, he said. One is an old and aging Anglo and the other is young and minority. Between 2000 and 2040, the state's public school enrollment will see a 15 percent decline in Anglo children while Hispanic children will make up a 213 percent increase, he said.

The state's largest county - Harris - will shed Anglos throughout the coming decades. By 2040, Harris County will have about 516, 000 fewer Anglos than lived in the Houston area in 2000, while the number of Hispanics will increase by 2.5 million during the same period, Murdock said. The projection assumes a net migration rate equal to one-half of 1990-2000.

Most of the state's population growth is natural, Murdock told the House Mexican American Legislative Caucus today. About 22 percent of the growth comes from people moving to Texas from other states.

About 6 percent of the state's population is not documented, he said.

By 2040, only 20 percent of the state's public school enrollment will be Anglo, he said. Last year, non-Hispanic white children made up 33.3 percent of the state's 4.8 million public school enrollment.

...

Unless the trend line changes, 30 percent of the state's labor force will not have even a high school diploma by 2040, he said. And the average household income will be about $6,500 lower than it was in 2000. That figure is not inflation adjusted so it will be worse than what it sounds.

"It's a terrible situation that you are in. I am worried," Murdock said.

[freepcrusher]

too bad the non-anglos don't vote and are put in vote sink districts (ever seen EBJ's district?)

[Sbane]

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

[Torie]

Anglos aren't replacing themselves. And I consider the sad state of education for Hispanics to be something akin to a national crises for ensuing generations. Good luck.

[cinyc]

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

Anglos aren't moving out of Texas.  They're actually still moving in.  But Anglos are not having kids and ultimately will be dying off and/or they are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic among those obsessed by race.

[phk]

Far lower fertility rates for Whites than Mexicans.

In fact Mexican-Americans have a higher fertility rate than Mexicans themselves.

I mentioned earlier in a thread about the Central Valley where the high fertility rate for Mexican's has made their median age 20 years lower than that of Whites. Nearly a generation younger. This has the dual effect of making areas more religious and more Democratic at the same time.

I do expect Mexican fertility rates to decline like they have for other Hispanic groups.

[Brittain33]

I think higher fertility rates are only part of it... a differential from 20-30 years ago can also make a difference, because you have a proportionately larger population of child-bearing age even if the fertility rate isn't that much higher. This is why China's population keeps growing 20-some years into the one child policy. Mexican-American women could have significantly lower fertility rates than people think but still have the community as a whole growing quickly because of fertility rates in Mexico and the U.S. in the 1980s.

[phk]

I think higher fertility rates are only part of it... a differential from 20-30 years ago can also make a difference, because you have a proportionately larger population of child-bearing age even if the fertility rate isn't that much higher. This is why China's population keeps growing 20-some years into the one child policy. Mexican-American women could have significantly lower fertility rates than people think but still have the community as a whole growing quickly because of fertility rates in Mexico and the U.S. in the 1980s.

Mexican-Americans have had a higher fertility rate than Mexico does since at least 1995.

The difference could probably stem from Mexicans who moved just before Mexico instituted more rigorous family planning policies. Even than Mexicans are mostly Catholic which traditionally meant opposition to condoms and abortions.

Even more specifically the main reason why it is higher is because of elevated fertility rates in women aged 18-24 and once again in the older age group of 30-44.

[phk]

[phk]

Regression data

Table 1: Percent distribution of predictor variables by generation/nativity
group for Mexican-American for Mexican-Origin women.
Ages [15-44].


Table 2: Percent distribution of predictor variables for all women
ages [15-44] who had a birth in the year prior to the survey.

[RI]

That is called Catholicism.

[ilikeverin]

Anglos...are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic...

Definitely an underappreciated contributor to this trend.

[phk]

Anglos...are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic...

Definitely an underappreciated contributor to this trend.

Heh.

I have heard that Texas Mexican's are more likely to convert to Protestantism than those in California (it seems like their Catholicism rubs off on Anglos). Which would accelerate the White-washed process and lead to marrying Whites.

[RI]

That is called Catholicism.

Doesn't explain the blacks. It's called poverty. The only thing Catholicism "explains" is that fertility rates stay elevated for Hispanic women as they age.

I was only half-serious, but I would say that the reason why the spike is so high for Hispanics at the relatively young (by modern 'secular' society standards) of 20-24 is because of their religion. Without that, I think their line would be more down by the African-American line.

The overall reason why Blacks and Hispanics are above Whites is a combination of a number of factors, and poverty is certainly a big one of them, but I certainly think religion plays a factor in why the line for the minorities spikes before the line for Whites.

[memphis]

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

Not a small part of the equation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montgomery_County,_Texas

[Sbane]

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

Anglos aren't moving out of Texas.  They're actually still moving in.  But Anglos are not having kids and ultimately will be dying off and/or they are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic among those obsessed by race.

Excellent point. There is a high rate of intermarriage between Latinos and Anglos, meaning their kids might also be considered Latino.

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

Not a small part of the equation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montgomery_County,_Texas

The thing about Harris county though is that the northwest party still has plenty of open land that will be converted into exurbia and is quite similar to Montgomery County. Sort of votes the same too. I would expect the same sort of people are moving in as well.

[phk]

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

Anglos aren't moving out of Texas.  They're actually still moving in.  But Anglos are not having kids and ultimately will be dying off and/or they are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic among those obsessed by race.

Excellent point. There is a high rate of intermarriage between Latinos and Anglos, meaning their kids might also be considered Latino.

So if Anglos are also leaving Texas, where are they going? Or is it just olds dying off in rural areas with no one to replace them?

What I found odd was that apparently there will be less Anglos in Harris county in 2040 than in 2000. Why would they be moving out of Houston? I thought people from all over the country were flocking there?

Not a small part of the equation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montgomery_County,_Texas

The thing about Harris county though is that the northwest party still has plenty of open land that will be converted into exurbia and is quite similar to Montgomery County. Sort of votes the same too. I would expect the same sort of people are moving in as well.

Basically depends on what type of Hispanic the Hispanic parent is though racially.

Texas Mexicans tend to be more from Northern States than Californians and thus more White.

[Torie]

Anglos...are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic...

Definitely an underappreciated contributor to this trend.

Heh.

I have heard that Texas Mexican's are more likely to convert to Protestantism than those in California (it seems like their Catholicism rubs off on Anglos). Which would accelerate the White-washed process and lead to marrying Whites.

And Pubbies get about an split the Protestant Hispanic vote in the US. Arizona for some reason has an unusually high percentage of Protestant Hispanics, which is why the Pubbies get a higher share of the Hispanic vote in Arizona than in most states (but not as much as Florida with all of those Cubans).

[phk]

Anglos...are marrying Hispanics, rendering their offspring Hispanic...

Definitely an underappreciated contributor to this trend.

Heh.

I have heard that Texas Mexican's are more likely to convert to Protestantism than those in California (it seems like their Catholicism rubs off on Anglos). Which would accelerate the White-washed process and lead to marrying Whites.

And Pubbies get about an split the Protestant Hispanic vote in the US. Arizona for some reason has an unusually high percentage of Protestant Hispanics, which is why the Pubbies get a higher share of the Hispanic vote in Arizona than in most states (but not as much as Florida with all of those Cubans).

It's highly possible for a state like Arizona to have an elevated % of LDS Hispanics.

I have met 3 in Fresno. I imagine there'd be more in Arizona.

[Sam Spade]

I'm actually curious how much of the distinction between Hispanic voters in California vs. Texas and Arizona is based on religion, because we have to rely on polling companies for our stats there (at least we did in 2008).

Rather, the exit polls in 2008 and 2010 continue to suggest that the distinction in California and Texas/Arizona Hispanics is in how the middle/upper-class Hispanics vote - in Texas/Arizona, it's getting close to 50-50, at most 60-40 Dem, but might be even better than 50-50 GOP in Texas, according to my maths, whereas in California it is at most 1 in 3 GOP, and maybe 1 in 4 GOP.

Thoughts?

[phk]

Found this:

According to the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life national survey:

    * The first generation of Latino immigrants is 74 percent Catholic, and 15 percent Protestant.
    * The second generation is 72 percent Catholic, and 20 percent Protestant.
    * The third generation is 62 percent Catholic, and 29 percent Protestant.

Catholic priest and scholar Andrew Greeley predicted in 1988 that within 25 years, half of all American Hispanics would not be Catholics due to defections.

“Were it not for the massive influx of largely Catholic immigrants arriving in the United States over the past decade, Greeley’s predictions might have already come to pass,” Espinosa said.

[Verily]

Well, that may have to do with the strength of the state GOP as much as anything else. The Texas GOP (and the Arizona GOP) has the organizational capacity to reach out to wealthy Hispanics (and to have been reaching out to wealthy Hispanics for a while). Also probably has to do with sources of wealth--most wealthy Hispanics in Texas are probably large landowners or in the oil industry, both Republican demographics. Wealthy Hispanics in California are probably in entertainment or technology, Democratic demographics.

[Torie]

I'm actually curious how much of the distinction between Hispanic voters in California vs. Texas and Arizona is based on religion, because we have to rely on polling companies for our stats there (at least we did in 2008).

Rather, the exit polls in 2008 and 2010 continue to suggest that the distinction in California and Texas/Arizona Hispanics is in how the middle/upper-class Hispanics vote - in Texas/Arizona, it's getting close to 50-50, at most 60-40 Dem, but might be even better than 50-50 GOP in Texas, according to my maths, whereas in California it is at most 1 in 3 GOP, and maybe 1 in 4 GOP.

Thoughts?

It would be nice to find a solidly overwhelmingly middle class Hispanic town in California to test that hypothesis. "Unfortunately," middle class Hispanics really have no desire to hang with other Hispanics particularly, and therefore have next to no tendency to congregate as opposed to finding a neighborhood that has the best house and schools for the money (very different from Jews and to a substantial extent Asians actually). Heck, an Hispanic couple live on my block. The husband had a successful landscaping business, and now is retired, and enjoys walking his two little poodles. It would be hard to find even one precinct in Socal that does not have some Hispanics in it. The best one can do is perhaps a lower middle class town like Moreno Valley which is about half Hispanic.

By the way, my Hispanic construction foreman brought his family over to my house yesterday. He speaks pretty good English, but is hardly fluent (his wife speaks almost no English, so I had to communicate with her using my pathetic little Spanish vocabulary of about 500 words). This is the guy who come over to the US illegally at 16 with no money and no knowledge of English. He is 38 years old now. His 10 year old son however speaks English flawlessly with no accent, and is as smart as a tack, asking intelligent questions about this or that. He will be joining the middle class. It warmed my heart really. In fact, if I live long enough, I might help pay for his college expenses.

[krazen1211]

I finally got the new data to pull up in DRA.


Wow, Fort Bend county got really, really hosed for Pete Olson. You can just barely get it up to majority white by attaching the Lavaca, Fayette, and the other rural counties.

[ag]

I am afraid these sort of studies do not take into account assimilation. There is a lot of intermarriage. A lot of the third-generation "Hispanics" are barely Hispanic at all - and even that only for all sort of minority-preference purposes.  Still more don't even identify themselves as Hispanic.

Ignoring this also has the effect of exaggerating the poverty, lack of education, fertility, etc., etc. of the Hispanic population. It is the poorest and least educated that continue on unassimilated and easily identifiable as Hispanic. To a degree, we are confusing the causality: a lot of these people aren't poor and uneducated because they are Hispanic, but they are "Hispanic" because they are poor and uneducated. Of course, this is only part of the story: you don't have to be poor to self-identify as Hispanic. But assimilation is much easier for those higher up on the social scale.