Irish Election Results Thread

[patrick1]

And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.

Glad A. Power was not elected. Not a fan of her husband, her party or policies.  

I don't mind her husband all that much.

Well his wife sent out some stupid mailers (only she can stop Sinn Fein) and I am not sold on his objectivity.

[ilikeverin]

Cavan-Monaghan very tight. Looking like FG will pick up 3. Kathryn Reilly (SF) has been close behind them for many counts now, but seems unable to close the gap.

Margaret Conlon's (FF) distribution and the inevitable ensuing distibution of the Brendan Smith (FF) surplus that that distribution will create - will decide things. That those votes are much more Monaghan than Cavan in origin, will likely count against Reilly.

As predicted, reallocation is not very Reilly friendly; looks almost certain that Cavan-Monaghan will be 3 FG-1 FF

[patrick1]

Cavan-Monaghan very tight. Looking like FG will pick up 3. Kathryn Reilly (SF) has been close behind them for many counts now, but seems unable to close the gap.

Margaret Conlon's (FF) distribution and the inevitable ensuing distibution of the Brendan Smith (FF) surplus that that distribution will create - will decide things. That those votes are much more Monaghan than Cavan in origin, will likely count against Reilly.

As predicted, reallocation is not very Reilly friendly; looks almost certain that Cavan-Monaghan will be 3 FG-1 FF

Yeah, it looks like very good vote management by FG. I do think it is pretty cool that someone of 21 years can make a good run at it no matter what the party.

[DistingFlyer]

Mayo's final count is in - they did it.

[Lief 🗽]

Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some rounding.

[Хahar 🤔]

A map of the left-wing vote might be interesting (Lab+SF+ULA+independents).

[DistingFlyer]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

[Verily]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

[DistingFlyer]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

I doubt they'll make it, but seeing how the transfers are so efficiently squeezing out Fianna Fail candidates it is possible.

[patrick1]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

No, lets not. What has Fine Gael ever done? I am leery of their supposed solutions.

[DistingFlyer]

Only three constituencies left to declare tonight - chalk up three more Fine Gael members from Cavan – Monaghan.

[Verily]

Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

No, lets not. What has Fine Gael ever done? I am leery of their supposed solutions.

Sure. I want FG to win outright so Labour can be the opposition and Ireland can get a real party system. Implicit in that is the assumption that FG will f' up, which is really inevitable whether Labour is in government or not (but, if Labour are in government, FF will make a comeback when FG f's up.)

[Хahar 🤔]

The count goes on and on in Dublin SC, where FG's Catherine Byrne has been reelected. It's more or less a done deal at this point; it'll end up being 2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 ULA (PBP).

[DistingFlyer]

Dublin South-Central has finished, so no more declarations until tomorrow.

Current tally:
FG - 59
Lab - 31
FF - 14
SF - 13
ULA - 3
Ind - 11

Thirty-five more seats to come.

As for defeats, all six Greens are out, as well as Michael D'Arcy for Fine Gael and thirty Fianna Fail members.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's how each party has done so far (shaded by number of seats, not vote share):

[minionofmidas]

Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW, FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.

Cork NC might end up an FF shutout as well - FF incumbent there did well on first pref.s but his transfers look so bad they might as well be negative. One Labour candidate to be eliminated now, after that it'll be a big surplus from the other, incumbent Labour candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if both FG candidates overtake him on those two redistributions - one certainly will. (And after that, there'll be nothing left.)

Yeah well, no. Did much better on Labour transfers.

[minionofmidas]

Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).

Halligan's victory is one of the coolest things of the night.

Also, is Colm Keaveney (Labour) an actual transfermagnet? More than doubled his tally so far, with more to come, and by now more than 50% likely to nick a seat imho.

Another person to mention is Robert Troy (FF-Longford & Westmeath). An FF freshman, beating the FF incumbents to salvage the party a seat. Maybe FF could have done a teeny bit better if they'd run more fresh faces elsewhere?

[minionofmidas]

Ciaran Lynch (Labour - Cork SC) becomes the first person to be elected today. As expected, of course - they started the day by distributing his running mate's votes.

[YL]

Fourth count in Kerry South: Gleeson eliminated, Sheahan (FG) some way behind the two Independents.

[minionofmidas]

Deirdre Clune confirmed as second FG incumbent to lose seat. Her ridistribution is almost a formality - can't see the SF candidate pick up the needed votes to overtake Michael McGrath (FF), seeing as Buttimer (FG) will be receiving the bulk of these votes. (Simon Coveney, FG, elected on Lynch's surplus.)

[YL]

Why is Wicklow being so slow?  The eliminated candidates haven't exactly had large numbers of votes to redistribute.

[minionofmidas]

They didn't release the first count until late last night. I think they basically had a full recount on account of the order of also-runs' eliminations before releasing the first count.

[YL]

On the RTE website, Dún Laoghaire seems to have gone back to the elimination of the Green.

EDIT: now it's gone back to roughly what it was before, so I presume that was something to do with them editing the figures after the recount (and the recount doesn't seem to have changed much).

[minionofmidas]

Deirdre Clune confirmed as second FG incumbent to lose seat. Her ridistribution is almost a formality - can't see the SF candidate pick up the needed votes to overtake Michael McGrath (FF), seeing as Buttimer (FG) will be receiving the bulk of these votes. (Simon Coveney, FG, elected on Lynch's surplus.)

Buttimer's surplus is large enough that they'll have to distribute it before McGrath can partay.