old timey villain
cope1989
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,741
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« on: April 18, 2011, 06:05:47 PM » |
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So I've been crunching some numbers to figure out what the demographic changes in Georgia mean for the future politics of the state. Right now the Republicans are completely dominant in state and national politics in Georgia. But I always say that once you're at the top there's no other way to go but down. As whites in north and south Georgia become increasingly allied to the Republicans, the crown jewels of the Republican establishment in Georgia are losing their luster.
Cobb and Gwinnett at one point were the crowning achievement of the Republicans takeover in Georgia. Two fast growing, dynamic counties of the new south that were about as Republican as you can get. They represented the party's future dominance in the region. But these days, things have changed. One by one, these counties circling Atlanta are falling to forces farther to the left. By the 1980s, in the era of Reagan, only Fulton county, home to Atlanta, went Democratic, narrowly favoring Mondale over Reagan. In 1988, Dekalb county joined its neighbor in voting for Dukakis. In 1992, when Clinton took Georgia, Clayton county, quickly becoming majority minority created a trio of Democratic leaning Atlanta counties.
From 1996 to 2004, as Republicans quickly seized power in the state, the politics of Metro Atlanta looked stable. It became much more common for Democratic counties in North and South Georgia to quickly change allegiances. This gave us our first Republican governor since reconstruction. Things looked pretty stable for Republicans, but then 2008 happened.
While Obama underperformed in more rural Areas of the state, he did exceptionally well in Metro Atlanta. The trio of blue counties were joined by Douglas, Rockdale and Newton counties, all once rock solid Republican counties that had seen considerable growth from minorities. But the most surprising was Cobb and Gwinnett. These huge counties barely held for McCain. He won them by 10 points or less. Since then Gwinnett has become a majority minority county, and Cobb has continued its demographic transition as well. Both counties swing back towards the Republicans in 2010, but this was to be expected with an electorate that was whiter and older than the one in 2008.
Looking forward to 2012, here's some data I compiled using the latest the latest voter registration statistics. First I'll show you Gwinnett:
As of March 2011 Gwinnett has 384,468 voters
-Whites are 57% of the electorate
-Minorities are 40% of the electorate
(Voters listed as "Other" I gave 74% to Obama, as most of those voters are likely mixed race who still identify and minorites and likely vote Democrat.)
-The other 3% left over I split evenly between Obama and the Republican candidate (This may not have been the most accurate thing to do though, they were just sort of the leftovers)
-Using trends observed in 2008, Obama recieves 51.4 of the vote and the Republican gets 48.7% of the vote (assuming no major third party candidate)
I'll admit, I'm a rookie at this, so any advice is appreciated. I looked at the turnout in 2008 and crunched some numbers for 2012, assuming a similar turnout and Obama momentum. If Obama loses then this is all for nothing. I gave Obama 90% of the Minority vote and 25% of the white vote.
So, what do you think??
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