US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Minnesota Mike]

For all of you drawing Iowa maps with population ranges in the hundreds or the thousands a little history.

Overall population range of Congressional districts in adopted plans.

1981: 217 (+144, -73)
1991: 265 (+143, -122)
2001: : 134 (+40, -94)
2011: 76 (+35, -41)*
* From DRA.

A good overview how redistricting actually works from a lawyer in 2011.

https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/REDST/Redistricting_in_Iowa.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

Since everything is nested as much as possible a lot depends on how much state legislators like their own maps. A Republican who's own district map is OK with them may vote for the overall map despite not being thrilled with the congressional map.

[Minnesota Mike]

GOP should like this map.  The cores of all the districts are preserved.  Hinson and MMM both go a point or so to the right, IA-3 is now a Biden district but just by 0.3%.  Populations go from +256 to -312. 

The population range will not go down. If you want to draw a different map it needs to have a smaller population spread than the last proposal.

[Minnesota Mike]

What's the range on the current proposal?

Current proposal is -36 to +63. Your proposed map would have less of a population range but it is clearly not close to being compact.

[Minnesota Mike]

Was reading online that if the LSA takes its time developing the next set of maps, plus what I would imagine would be the third round and we get to December 1 with no maps, the Iowa Supreme Court will take over.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1445381917344509954?s=20

Yeah, it seems unlikely that the IAGOP will have time to wait for a second proposal, reject it, wait for a third proposal, reject that too, modify it, and pass it all before December 1. Iowa's Supreme Court is 6-1 Republican; I don't know exactly how partisan it is, but I'd imagine that the legislature would probably want to avoid punting it to the courts if it can help it.

In all likelihood if it gets to that point the Republican Supreme Court will grant the Republican legislature an extension past Dec 1. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Map 2 passes the IA Senate 48-1.

[Minnesota Mike]

And map 2 passes the IA House 93-2. On to governor.