US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateBoulton/status/1438517942182821889?s=20

[Gass3268]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Eh, Dallas and Polk have the vast majority of the population in that district and both are moving left.

[Gass3268]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Eh, Dallas and Polk have the vast majority of the population in that district and both are moving left.

This won't pass but you wonder if maybe they cut a deal to make IA-3 a clear lean Dem seat in exchange for 1,2 being like Trump +8-12.

That would be the smart thing for Iowa Republicans to do. Even if Iowa is now a solid Likely-R state, going for the 4-0 could result in a 3-1 for Democrats given the states political geography, population growth, and political trends.

[Gass3268]

Was reading online that if the LSA takes its time developing the next set of maps, plus what I would imagine would be the third round and we get to December 1 with no maps, the Iowa Supreme Court will take over.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1445381917344509954?s=20