US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

After last night's results with the suburbs still very strong for Dems, think maybe the GOP decides they need to shore up IA-1 and 2 and instead packs Iowa City into 3 and creates a Dem seat for Axne while making things a very safe 3-1 for the decade. I know the state is trending R but midterm turnout patterns with whites can threaten an incumbent only elected by 6 votes!

I don't think that's possible due to the very strict whole county and compactness rules.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I do think both parties in Iowa tend to like their non-partisan redistricting proccese and I personaly doubt that either caucus leader is in for a painful redistricting fight(which it will have to be given the structure of the counsition and it's redistircting procces). I don't think the commision will get overriden.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Iowa with it's redistricting rules has just horrible geography for republicans.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Also, here are some other plans the computer program made, but were rejected for compactness/pop div/other reases. All have 1 Biden seat to a considerable degree. Some have 2. GOP probably wanted something like some of these ideally.

They probably end up with something like the top middle.

IDK seems like it's likley to backfire in a bad-normal year it could easily be a 2-2 or 3-1.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Iowa Senate is voting now on the three maps.

Link to livestream/tweet ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

livestreem for those who want it:https://www.legis.iowa.gov/dashboard?view=videoLive&chamber=S

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The GOP probably wants a 3R-1D map that makes Axne a dem sink.

IA-1: Trump +5%
IA-2: Trump +4.33%
IA-3: Biden +8.92%
IA-4: Trump +32.71%

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf43f5f6-1cf6-4dfd-a36c-3f683c564be6

The first and second aren't safe during a republican midterm and a blue wave.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Can someone explain to me why it's in the GOP's benefit to create a D "vote sink" in Des Moines rather than just keeping a map simillar to the current config. The thing is a Des Moines seat doesn't really help to shore up IA-1 and 2 at all, it just means IA-4 can get redder but that seat is already red enough for the GOP. Wouldn't it just be better to have a map simillar to the current config where IA-3 is more or less a tossup with rurals that may help cancel out some of the urban trends of Des Moines?

For example, a map like the map below follows the county rules and is reasonably compact, and would make districts 1, 2, and 3 all redder.

Iowa may be volatile in off-year elections; without Trump on the ballot, a least change map could be 3-1 D again.

That's really only possible if it's a blue wave. A neutral year probably produces a 3R-1D or maybe even a 4R.

Yeah but there's always the risk of a blue year, It would really prevent the Iowa republicans from building up seniority.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1451203610193371143?t=YKgpr4B9_C2X73UtnYG4pg&...
Obviously if I was a Republican, I would much happier with this map than the previous map. But it can end up as 3-1 D in a favorable year

I don't know, I could easily see 2 districts trending D from suburban growth.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yeah, I think they'll just go with this one. All four incumbents live in their districts, Hinson and Miller-Meeks should be generally favored barring a blue wave (which 2022 will not be) and they'll generally have a good shot at knocking off Axne.

IDK though if it's a republican midterm Democrats could easily regain a 3-1 delegation.