US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Roll Roons]

I think the commission could produce something like this:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3ad4c15b-fadd-4eb7-ae12-70b1ec3ab71c

IA-01 and IA-02 don't change that much. Both of them voted for Trump, the former by about 5 and the latter by about 4. Hinson and Miller-Meeks will start out favored in 2022, but one or both could certainly lose in a blue wave.

IA-03, still centered on Des Moines, becomes a lot bluer at Biden +7, as it loses rural areas and gains Story. This seat is within reach for the GOP in a good year, but Axne should be favored most of the time. Even Hillary won it by 4.

IA-04 is even redder than the current version. Especially with an incumbent who isn't Steve King, this seat will be Safe R for quite some time.

[Roll Roons]

Miller-Meeks is going to be superbly pissed off if this map passes, lol

They're basically conceding IA-2 with this.

She actually lives in Ottumwa, so her district is pretty safe. It's actually Hinson who gets screwed, since she lives in Linn County.

[Roll Roons]

Can someone explain to me why it's in the GOP's benefit to create a D "vote sink" in Des Moines rather than just keeping a map simillar to the current config. The thing is a Des Moines seat doesn't really help to shore up IA-1 and 2 at all, it just means IA-4 can get redder but that seat is already red enough for the GOP. Wouldn't it just be better to have a map simillar to the current config where IA-3 is more or less a tossup with rurals that may help cancel out some of the urban trends of Des Moines?

For example, a map like the map below follows the county rules and is reasonably compact, and would make districts 1, 2, and 3 all redder.

Iowa may be volatile in off-year elections; without Trump on the ballot, a least change map could be 3-1 D again.

That's really only possible if it's a blue wave. A neutral year probably produces a 3R-1D or maybe even a 4R.

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, I think they'll just go with this one. Hinson and Miller-Meeks should be generally favored barring a blue wave (which 2022 will not be) and they'll have a good shot at knocking off Axne next year.