US House Redistricting: Iowa
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  US House Redistricting: Iowa
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Iowa  (Read 25889 times)
BoiseBoy
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« Reply #200 on: October 05, 2021, 12:39:54 PM »

Maps are voted down 18-32 in the Senate. Party line vote as far as I can tell. They now have until December to draw new maps.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #201 on: October 05, 2021, 12:59:12 PM »

Maps are voted down 18-32 in the Senate. Party line vote as far as I can tell. They now have until December to draw new maps.

Disappointed but not surprised
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Thunder98
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« Reply #202 on: October 05, 2021, 03:01:52 PM »

The GOP probably wants a 3R-1D map that makes Axne a dem sink.

IA-1: Trump +5%
IA-2: Trump +4.33%
IA-3: Biden +8.92%
IA-4: Trump +32.71%

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf43f5f6-1cf6-4dfd-a36c-3f683c564be6

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Gass3268
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« Reply #203 on: October 05, 2021, 03:35:30 PM »

Was reading online that if the LSA takes its time developing the next set of maps, plus what I would imagine would be the third round and we get to December 1 with no maps, the Iowa Supreme Court will take over.

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GALeftist
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« Reply #204 on: October 05, 2021, 04:13:49 PM »

Was reading online that if the LSA takes its time developing the next set of maps, plus what I would imagine would be the third round and we get to December 1 with no maps, the Iowa Supreme Court will take over.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1445381917344509954?s=20

Yeah, it seems unlikely that the IAGOP will have time to wait for a second proposal, reject it, wait for a third proposal, reject that too, modify it, and pass it all before December 1. Iowa's Supreme Court is 6-1 Republican; I don't know exactly how partisan it is, but I'd imagine that the legislature would probably want to avoid punting it to the courts if it can help it.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #205 on: October 05, 2021, 04:17:10 PM »

Was reading online that if the LSA takes its time developing the next set of maps, plus what I would imagine would be the third round and we get to December 1 with no maps, the Iowa Supreme Court will take over.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1445381917344509954?s=20

Yeah, it seems unlikely that the IAGOP will have time to wait for a second proposal, reject it, wait for a third proposal, reject that too, modify it, and pass it all before December 1. Iowa's Supreme Court is 6-1 Republican; I don't know exactly how partisan it is, but I'd imagine that the legislature would probably want to avoid punting it to the courts if it can help it.

In all likelihood if it gets to that point the Republican Supreme Court will grant the Republican legislature an extension past Dec 1. 
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #206 on: October 05, 2021, 04:35:38 PM »

The GOP probably wants a 3R-1D map that makes Axne a dem sink.

IA-1: Trump +5%
IA-2: Trump +4.33%
IA-3: Biden +8.92%
IA-4: Trump +32.71%

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf43f5f6-1cf6-4dfd-a36c-3f683c564be6


The first and second aren't safe during a republican midterm and a blue wave.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #207 on: October 05, 2021, 04:53:27 PM »

The GOP probably wants a 3R-1D map that makes Axne a dem sink.

IA-1: Trump +5%
IA-2: Trump +4.33%
IA-3: Biden +8.92%
IA-4: Trump +32.71%

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf43f5f6-1cf6-4dfd-a36c-3f683c564be6


The first and second aren't safe during a republican midterm and a blue wave.

Well its almost safe as you can get for Iowa for the GOP due to the geography and county/compactness rules.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #208 on: October 05, 2021, 05:08:18 PM »


I am expecting something like this to be drawn.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #209 on: October 05, 2021, 05:31:56 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2021, 05:34:57 PM by Oryxslayer »


I am expecting something like this to be drawn.

As said before, one of the conditions of rejection is that you have to ask the mappers to produce a lower pop div than the previous proposal. So the Polk-Iowa City map is never going to get spit out by the algorithm, excluding the fact that the compactness also is a stated criteria. A map like this could only work if the leg rejects the three commission maps, and it is unclear if the court would give extra time for gerrymandering after rejecting 3 hypothetical proposals, or more likely simply say three strikes your out.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #210 on: October 06, 2021, 06:02:51 AM »

Disheartening. I guess the NM gerrymander would be fair payback for the GOP's shenanigans here.
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S019
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« Reply #211 on: October 06, 2021, 02:37:47 PM »


I am expecting something like this to be drawn.

As said before, one of the conditions of rejection is that you have to ask the mappers to produce a lower pop div than the previous proposal. So the Polk-Iowa City map is never going to get spit out by the algorithm, excluding the fact that the compactness also is a stated criteria. A map like this could only work if the leg rejects the three commission maps, and it is unclear if the court would give extra time for gerrymandering after rejecting 3 hypothetical proposals, or more likely simply say three strikes your out.

Wouldn't the deviations on this map be too high too, I thought you need lesser deviation each time, and that also applies to the legislature-drawn maps, no?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #212 on: October 06, 2021, 02:51:42 PM »


I am expecting something like this to be drawn.

As said before, one of the conditions of rejection is that you have to ask the mappers to produce a lower pop div than the previous proposal. So the Polk-Iowa City map is never going to get spit out by the algorithm, excluding the fact that the compactness also is a stated criteria. A map like this could only work if the leg rejects the three commission maps, and it is unclear if the court would give extra time for gerrymandering after rejecting 3 hypothetical proposals, or more likely simply say three strikes your out.

Wouldn't the deviations on this map be too high too, I thought you need lesser deviation each time, and that also applies to the legislature-drawn maps, no?

Yes, you do. The de jure justification for rejection is too high div, of course there are other de facto concerns. This is why Polk-Iowa City become impossible, cause there is not way to get the div lower than proposal 1 for that district, excluding the fact it would get removed from possible consideration by the algorithm on compactness grounds.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #213 on: October 06, 2021, 03:43:35 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2021, 03:49:33 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

Can someone explain to me why it's in the GOP's benefit to create a D "vote sink" in Des Moines rather than just keeping a map simillar to the current config. The thing is a Des Moines seat doesn't really help to shore up IA-1 and 2 at all, it just means IA-4 can get redder but that seat is already red enough for the GOP. Wouldn't it just be better to have a map simillar to the current config where IA-3 is more or less a tossup with rurals that may help cancel out some of the urban trends of Des Moines?

For example, a map like the map below follows the county rules and is reasonably compact, and would make districts 1, 2, and 3 all redder.

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Stuart98
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« Reply #214 on: October 06, 2021, 04:42:12 PM »

Can someone explain to me why it's in the GOP's benefit to create a D "vote sink" in Des Moines rather than just keeping a map simillar to the current config. The thing is a Des Moines seat doesn't really help to shore up IA-1 and 2 at all, it just means IA-4 can get redder but that seat is already red enough for the GOP. Wouldn't it just be better to have a map simillar to the current config where IA-3 is more or less a tossup with rurals that may help cancel out some of the urban trends of Des Moines?

For example, a map like the map below follows the county rules and is reasonably compact, and would make districts 1, 2, and 3 all redder.


Iowa may be volatile in off-year elections; without Trump on the ballot, a least change map could be 3-1 D again.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #215 on: October 06, 2021, 04:46:13 PM »

Can someone explain to me why it's in the GOP's benefit to create a D "vote sink" in Des Moines rather than just keeping a map simillar to the current config. The thing is a Des Moines seat doesn't really help to shore up IA-1 and 2 at all, it just means IA-4 can get redder but that seat is already red enough for the GOP. Wouldn't it just be better to have a map simillar to the current config where IA-3 is more or less a tossup with rurals that may help cancel out some of the urban trends of Des Moines?

For example, a map like the map below follows the county rules and is reasonably compact, and would make districts 1, 2, and 3 all redder.


Iowa may be volatile in off-year elections; without Trump on the ballot, a least change map could be 3-1 D again.

That's really only possible if it's a blue wave. A neutral year probably produces a 3R-1D or maybe even a 4R.
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S019
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« Reply #216 on: October 06, 2021, 07:59:09 PM »


I am expecting something like this to be drawn.

As said before, one of the conditions of rejection is that you have to ask the mappers to produce a lower pop div than the previous proposal. So the Polk-Iowa City map is never going to get spit out by the algorithm, excluding the fact that the compactness also is a stated criteria. A map like this could only work if the leg rejects the three commission maps, and it is unclear if the court would give extra time for gerrymandering after rejecting 3 hypothetical proposals, or more likely simply say three strikes your out.

Wouldn't the deviations on this map be too high too, I thought you need lesser deviation each time, and that also applies to the legislature-drawn maps, no?

Yes, you do. The de jure justification for rejection is too high div, of course there are other de facto concerns. This is why Polk-Iowa City become impossible, cause there is not way to get the div lower than proposal 1 for that district, excluding the fact it would get removed from possible consideration by the algorithm on compactness grounds.

As a follow up, I attempted maps based on the Des Moines to Iowa City sink and both of them fell far short of the average deviation of Map 1 (around 68 people), let alone Map 3

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9fd6260a-0866-4bfe-b4d3-b600192eab5e

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9739ab0e-0ecc-4715-a455-d9e4c2abe498

I just don't see these maps happening
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #217 on: October 06, 2021, 08:00:48 PM »

Can someone explain to me why it's in the GOP's benefit to create a D "vote sink" in Des Moines rather than just keeping a map simillar to the current config. The thing is a Des Moines seat doesn't really help to shore up IA-1 and 2 at all, it just means IA-4 can get redder but that seat is already red enough for the GOP. Wouldn't it just be better to have a map simillar to the current config where IA-3 is more or less a tossup with rurals that may help cancel out some of the urban trends of Des Moines?

For example, a map like the map below follows the county rules and is reasonably compact, and would make districts 1, 2, and 3 all redder.


Iowa may be volatile in off-year elections; without Trump on the ballot, a least change map could be 3-1 D again.

That's really only possible if it's a blue wave. A neutral year probably produces a 3R-1D or maybe even a 4R.
Yeah but there's always the risk of a blue year, It would really prevent the Iowa republicans from building up seniority.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #218 on: October 06, 2021, 11:13:13 PM »

Iowa LSA has announced the second proposal will be released by October 21, which is relatively quick
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #219 on: October 19, 2021, 08:01:38 PM »

Iowa LSA has announced the second proposal will be released by October 21, which is relatively quick
Not by, but on the 21st:
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andjey
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« Reply #220 on: October 21, 2021, 10:18:08 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2021, 10:23:49 AM by АndriуValeriovich »



Obviously if I was a Republican, I would be much happier with this map than the previous map. But it can end up as 3-1 D in a favorable year
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #221 on: October 21, 2021, 10:19:34 AM »


Obviously if I was a Republican, I would much happier with this map than the previous map. But it can end up as 3-1 D in a favorable year
I don't know, I could easily see 2 districts trending D from suburban growth.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #222 on: October 21, 2021, 10:28:47 AM »


Obviously if I was a Republican, I would much happier with this map than the previous map. But it can end up as 3-1 D in a favorable year
I don't know, I could easily see 2 districts trending D from suburban growth.

Ehhh... if Trump was still president, this would be possible in 2022.  As it stands now, the earliest a Dem wave could reasonably happen would be 2026 and Iowa could easily be off the charts R by then.  Can't really see anything other than IA-03 going Dem that late, and it's already Dem today.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #223 on: October 21, 2021, 10:41:34 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2021, 10:45:11 AM by Roll Roons »

Yeah, I think they'll just go with this one. Hinson and Miller-Meeks should be generally favored barring a blue wave (which 2022 will not be) and they'll have a good shot at knocking off Axne next year.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #224 on: October 21, 2021, 10:43:04 AM »

Yeah, I think they'll just go with this one. All four incumbents live in their districts, Hinson and Miller-Meeks should be generally favored barring a blue wave (which 2022 will not be) and they'll generally have a good shot at knocking off Axne.
IDK though if it's a republican midterm Democrats could easily regain a 3-1 delegation.
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