US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Oryxslayer]

Miller-Meeks is going to be superbly pissed off if this map passes, lol

They're basically conceding IA-2 with this.

She actually lives in Ottumwa, so her district is pretty safe. It's actually Hinson who gets screwed, since she lives in Linn County.

Yeah, notice the numbers of 1 and 2 got flipped. I think thats cause the incumbents live in opposite seats here.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, here are some other plans the computer program made, but were rejected for compactness/pop div/other reases. All have 1 Biden seat to a considerable degree. Some have 2. GOP probably wanted something like some of these ideally.

[Minnesota Mike]

Since everything is nested as much as possible a lot depends on how much state legislators like their own maps. A Republican who's own district map is OK with them may vote for the overall map despite not being thrilled with the congressional map.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Iowa with it's redistricting rules has just horrible geography for republicans.

[Tintrlvr]

Looking at the alternatives from the computer program, I don't see how the Republicans could have done materially better within the narrow confines of what's permissible in Iowa. All of the options are roughly the same, and some are noticeably worse for the Republicans. The geography is not so favorable for the Republicans since the strong R areas in the west of the state can't really be used to sink either Des Moines or the Democratic towns in the east.

Nice for the Democrats that the end result is likely D+1, R-1.

[Devils30]

Again I don't think this passes but maybe it makes the sides cut a deal where Axne gets Polk, Story and a Dem trending Dallas county in exchange for the SE Iowa district being like a Trump mid single- digit district. A 2-1-1 map in a neutral year with it 3-1 Trump 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, here are some other plans the computer program made, but were rejected for compactness/pop div/other reases. All have 1 Biden seat to a considerable degree. Some have 2. GOP probably wanted something like some of these ideally.

They probably end up with something like the top middle.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Also, here are some other plans the computer program made, but were rejected for compactness/pop div/other reases. All have 1 Biden seat to a considerable degree. Some have 2. GOP probably wanted something like some of these ideally.

They probably end up with something like the top middle.

IDK seems like it's likley to backfire in a bad-normal year it could easily be a 2-2 or 3-1.

[indietraveler]

Wow that's a surprisingly dem friendly map. The fastest growing areas of the state would be dem territory so this would likely evolve into a solid 2-2 map part way through the decade.

[Mr.Phips]

Also, here are some other plans the computer program made, but were rejected for compactness/pop div/other reases. All have 1 Biden seat to a considerable degree. Some have 2. GOP probably wanted something like some of these ideally.

They probably end up with something like the top middle.

IDK seems like it's likley to backfire in a bad-normal year it could easily be a 2-2 or 3-1.

If they are going to do that map, they might as well put Johnson county in the DesMoines district.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Again I don't think this passes but maybe it makes the sides cut a deal where Axne gets Polk, Story and a Dem trending Dallas county in exchange for the SE Iowa district being like a Trump mid single- digit district. A 2-1-1 map in a neutral year with it 3-1 Trump 2020.

Dems would be idiots to agree to that. Which is why, given that Dems are incompetent fools who love to unilaterally disarm when it comes to redistricting, it is quite plausible that is exactly what could happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this is a fight IA GOPers feel is particularly important to start.

[Devils30]

Again I don't think this passes but maybe it makes the sides cut a deal where Axne gets Polk, Story and a Dem trending Dallas county in exchange for the SE Iowa district being like a Trump mid single- digit district. A 2-1-1 map in a neutral year with it 3-1 Trump 2020.

Dems would be idiots to agree to that. Which is why, given that Dems are incompetent fools who love to unilaterally disarm when it comes to redistricting, it is quite plausible that is exactly what could happen.

Keeping as many vulnerable Dems in red states as possible is Dems key to 2022. That plus offensive opportunities in CA, IL, NY, MD, NM is how they hold the House. Axne getting a safe IA-3 helps the goal. But I agree, I want at least a competitive SE Iowa seat, even if it is around Trump +4.

[GALeftist]

Confusing map, but very based nonetheless. Starts as 2-1-1, probably later in the decade ends up at 2-2 as Dallas moves left. Would be extremely happy with this map, which is why I doubt that it will be enacted.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's a compact mostly 3-1 R Iowa map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c6a28355-5d72-4de2-baa5-b70ee8d48af2

2020 Prez:


2018 Gov:

[dpmapper]

GOP should like this map.  The cores of all the districts are preserved.  Hinson and MMM both go a point or so to the right, IA-3 is now a Biden district but just by 0.3%.  Populations go from +256 to -312. 

[Minnesota Mike]

GOP should like this map.  The cores of all the districts are preserved.  Hinson and MMM both go a point or so to the right, IA-3 is now a Biden district but just by 0.3%.  Populations go from +256 to -312. 

The population range will not go down. If you want to draw a different map it needs to have a smaller population spread than the last proposal.

[dpmapper]

What's the range on the current proposal?

[dpmapper]

Here's one with a range of -33 to +39.  IA-1 goes a couple points right, IA-3 goes 1.5 points right, IA-2 stays constant. 

[Minnesota Mike]

What's the range on the current proposal?

Current proposal is -36 to +63. Your proposed map would have less of a population range but it is clearly not close to being compact.

[dpmapper]

What's the range on the current proposal?

Current proposal is -36 to +63. Your proposed map would have less of a population range but it is clearly not close to being compact.

True. (Changing the boundary between the 4th and 1st to be nice wouldn't change partisanship, but I couldn't get the populations to add up without having the tail.) It does, however, have the feature that the largest 15 cities in Iowa would remain in their current district (ignoring some parts in Dallas County that get split off).  

I don't expect this to be the map, I'm just playing around.  

[BoiseBoy]

Iowa Senate is voting now on the three maps.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Iowa Senate is voting now on the three maps.

Link to livestream/tweet ?

[BoiseBoy]

Nevermind, they are now in recess until noon. The Senate State Government Committee advanced the plan unanimously without recommendation to the full senate.

https://www.legis.iowa.gov/dashboard?view=videoLive&chamber=S

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

livestreem for those who want it:https://www.legis.iowa.gov/dashboard?view=videoLive&chamber=S