US House Redistricting: Iowa
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  US House Redistricting: Iowa
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Brittain33
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« Reply #50 on: April 14, 2011, 08:26:01 AM »


What are the chances that this leads to Steve King exiting Congress unwillingly by 2020?
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muon2
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« Reply #51 on: June 27, 2012, 05:39:30 PM »

I was reading up on the IA process and found this presentation from their chief legal counsel. This quote on page 61 was interesting:

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As it turned out there was no need to create any other plan, since the first was accepted. But I went back to some of my notes from before the plan was released and I saw I had a plan with two of the districts more ideal than the accepted plan, but the other two had considerably more deviation.

After some investigation I found that a plan with less deviation than the accepted plan does exist. This plan is much less compact and would violate the convenience definition in statute since there are pairs of counties in a district with wholly intervening counties of a different district. Yet the current CD 4 also has two counties with a wholly intervening county, so it seems that population equality can trump that statute.

So if the first plan had been rejected and the legal counsel advice and Senate resolution were followed, would this plan been offered? Note also that IA law bars a revote on the first plan. Would it go to a third, and if so what would they do?



CD 1: +17
CD 2: +6
CD 3: -15
CD 4: -9

Compare that to the approved plan: -41/+35/+23/-18.

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dpmapper
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« Reply #52 on: June 27, 2012, 05:52:35 PM »

That looks like a pretty optimal GOP gerrymander, actually, if you assume Latham>Boswell in CD-3.  CD-1 is a fantastic Dem vote sink with Iowa City plus most of the river cities (although Braley lives outside it, I think), King should be OK in CD-4, and CD-2 would be pretty competitive for a Cedar Rapids Republican to take on Loebsack.   
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Torie
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« Reply #53 on: June 27, 2012, 06:50:46 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2012, 06:53:29 PM by Torie »

That looks like a pretty optimal GOP gerrymander, actually, if you assume Latham>Boswell in CD-3.  CD-1 is a fantastic Dem vote sink with Iowa City plus most of the river cities (although Braley lives outside it, I think), King should be OK in CD-4, and CD-2 would be pretty competitive for a Cedar Rapids Republican to take on Loebsack.    

Except that IA-03 has Story County in it. It is probably more Dem than the IA-03 currently in place. And IA-03 is where the rubber meets the road. It should be a barn burner, with super high turnout, since Iowa may end up being the epicenter of the election, if Mittens can't get his Hispanic act together. Obama and Mittens will be flushing out every voter who is breathing.
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muon2
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« Reply #54 on: June 27, 2012, 08:42:10 PM »

That looks like a pretty optimal GOP gerrymander, actually, if you assume Latham>Boswell in CD-3.  CD-1 is a fantastic Dem vote sink with Iowa City plus most of the river cities (although Braley lives outside it, I think), King should be OK in CD-4, and CD-2 would be pretty competitive for a Cedar Rapids Republican to take on Loebsack.    

Except that IA-03 has Story County in it. It is probably more Dem than the IA-03 currently in place. And IA-03 is where the rubber meets the road. It should be a barn burner, with super high turnout, since Iowa may end up being the epicenter of the election, if Mittens can't get his Hispanic act together. Obama and Mittens will be flushing out every voter who is breathing.

Based on 2004 returns both CD2 and CD3 are close in that map. Bush carried CD2 by 51-49 in the two party vote. Kerry won CD3 by about 400 votes.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #55 on: June 29, 2012, 11:48:43 AM »

That looks like a pretty optimal GOP gerrymander, actually, if you assume Latham>Boswell in CD-3.  CD-1 is a fantastic Dem vote sink with Iowa City plus most of the river cities (although Braley lives outside it, I think), King should be OK in CD-4, and CD-2 would be pretty competitive for a Cedar Rapids Republican to take on Loebsack.    

Except that IA-03 has Story County in it. It is probably more Dem than the IA-03 currently in place. And IA-03 is where the rubber meets the road. It should be a barn burner, with super high turnout, since Iowa may end up being the epicenter of the election, if Mittens can't get his Hispanic act together. Obama and Mittens will be flushing out every voter who is breathing.
And a few hundred who aren't.
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muon2
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« Reply #56 on: June 30, 2012, 08:52:28 AM »

That looks like a pretty optimal GOP gerrymander, actually, if you assume Latham>Boswell in CD-3.  CD-1 is a fantastic Dem vote sink with Iowa City plus most of the river cities (although Braley lives outside it, I think), King should be OK in CD-4, and CD-2 would be pretty competitive for a Cedar Rapids Republican to take on Loebsack.    

Except that IA-03 has Story County in it. It is probably more Dem than the IA-03 currently in place. And IA-03 is where the rubber meets the road. It should be a barn burner, with super high turnout, since Iowa may end up being the epicenter of the election, if Mittens can't get his Hispanic act together. Obama and Mittens will be flushing out every voter who is breathing.
And a few hundred who aren't.

Come now. IL is that state east of the Mississippi. Wink
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muon2
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« Reply #57 on: July 01, 2012, 12:15:53 AM »

So here is another plan, and I would suggest this is the one the GOP should have held out for. It beats the approved plan in both range (51) and average deviation (13.25). Two of the CDs are within 1 of the ideal population. CD 1 is even reasonably compact and CD 2 has better length-width compactness than the other plan I drew above this.

Looking at the 2 party vote from 2004, Bush beats Kerry in CDs 2 (51.1%), 3 (52.5%), and 4 (53.4%). CD 1 is a Dem sink with Kerry getting 55.5%. As I understand the Iowa process, if this map didn't come up in the first three tries, an amendment to place this plan before the legislature would have been in order. I wonder if anyone there considered this option?



CD 1: +25
CD 2: +1
CD 3: -1
CD 4: -26
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #58 on: August 01, 2019, 12:38:26 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8c16c877-a4d8-495d-ad5e-9c8d4c358d22

Looking ahead to 2020.  A metro Des Moines district seems inevitable.  A second "metro" district could be created based on Dubuque-Davenport-Cedar Rapids-Iowa City but that may not be as likely.  The Western farm district would be very R, while the Eastern one would be a Obama-Trump district. 

I guess one negative of these districts is that the metro ones are virtually guaranteed of growing while the farm ones are guaranteed of losing population, but I don't think that's a criteria for redistricting in Iowa
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #59 on: August 01, 2019, 08:07:46 PM »

Full points for necromancy.

Have there been major population shifts in Iowa since 2010?
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #60 on: August 01, 2019, 08:17:39 PM »

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #61 on: August 02, 2019, 01:07:44 AM »

Full points for necromancy.

Have there been major population shifts in Iowa since 2010?

Polk, Dallas, Story and Warren in the Des Moines metro have added 95,000 people.

Linn, Johnson, Scott and Dubuque have added 46,000 people

The rest of Iowa has lost a little over 30,000 people
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #62 on: August 02, 2019, 12:07:44 PM »


The Des Moines district will be too big by 2020 but the East metro may look like that (again if they did that)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #63 on: August 02, 2019, 04:46:23 PM »

Full points for necromancy.

Have there been major population shifts in Iowa since 2010?

Polk, Dallas, Story and Warren in the Des Moines metro have added 95,000 people.

Linn, Johnson, Scott and Dubuque have added 46,000 people

The rest of Iowa has lost a little over 30,000 people

So IA-03 is going to have to contract and presumably get very Dem over the decade while the rest of the state gets more and more R.  Good time to be Cindy Axne.   
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beesley
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« Reply #64 on: August 09, 2019, 02:14:32 AM »

Full points for necromancy.

Have there been major population shifts in Iowa since 2010?

Polk, Dallas, Story and Warren in the Des Moines metro have added 95,000 people.

Linn, Johnson, Scott and Dubuque have added 46,000 people

The rest of Iowa has lost a little over 30,000 people

So IA-03 is going to have to contract and presumably get very Dem over the decade while the rest of the state gets more and more R.  Good time to be Cindy Axne.   

Easy to why she went against all the urging to run for Senate.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #65 on: February 10, 2020, 10:27:18 PM »

Here’s the 538 GOP gerrymander:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/60cda9dc-5f6e-491b-a0dd-232b9563018c

It looks like they could make a Dem vote sink in east IA to shore up the other three districts, plus crack Des Moines between IA-3 and IA-4.

Obviously it’s outdated and I don’t know what maps the new population would make.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #66 on: February 10, 2020, 10:30:54 PM »

Here’s the 538 GOP gerrymander:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/60cda9dc-5f6e-491b-a0dd-232b9563018c

It looks like they could make a Dem vote sink in east IA to shore up the other three districts, plus crack Des Moines between IA-3 and IA-4.

Obviously it’s outdated and I don’t know what maps the new population would make.

You can't split counties in Iowa by law (unless necessary for population equality, but in Iowa it's not because of the plethora of tiny counties).
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #67 on: February 10, 2020, 10:46:36 PM »

Here’s the 538 GOP gerrymander:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/60cda9dc-5f6e-491b-a0dd-232b9563018c

It looks like they could make a Dem vote sink in east IA to shore up the other three districts, plus crack Des Moines between IA-3 and IA-4.

Obviously it’s outdated and I don’t know what maps the new population would make.

You can't split counties in Iowa by law (unless necessary for population equality, but in Iowa it's not because of the plethora of tiny counties).

Didn’t know that. Would it be possible to make a map with R-leaning districts?

They’d probably combine Polk with Story for a D vote sink. Then the leftovers of IA-3 can become part of the new IA-4 and the eastern remnants of the old IA-4 can become part of IA-1.

Also, is it possible to put Linn, Johnson, and Scott in one district so shore up IA-1 for the GOP?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #68 on: February 10, 2020, 11:27:41 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2020, 11:33:01 PM by Tintrlvr »

Here’s the 538 GOP gerrymander:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/60cda9dc-5f6e-491b-a0dd-232b9563018c

It looks like they could make a Dem vote sink in east IA to shore up the other three districts, plus crack Des Moines between IA-3 and IA-4.

Obviously it’s outdated and I don’t know what maps the new population would make.

You can't split counties in Iowa by law (unless necessary for population equality, but in Iowa it's not because of the plethora of tiny counties).

Didn’t know that. Would it be possible to make a map with R-leaning districts?

They’d probably combine Polk with Story for a D vote sink. Then the leftovers of IA-3 can become part of the new IA-4 and the eastern remnants of the old IA-4 can become part of IA-1.

Also, is it possible to put Linn, Johnson, and Scott in one district so shore up IA-1 for the GOP?

Basically the way redistricting works in Iowa is that there is an extremely strict formula for how districts can be shaped, and counties can't be split. So they run a program that spits out a bunch of legally acceptable maps, which are created totally algorithmically, and then the legislature picks from among those options. The legislature can also ignore the program's choices and create their own, but they still have to follow the extremely strict rules about district shape (in particular, I believe the rule is something like that districts must all have a low ratio of their north-south axis to their east-west axis, but more mathematically determined than that), so there would in practice be no more than tiny deviations from what the program spits out (usually just switching one <2,000 person county for another).

This in practice means that gerrymandering is not really possible in Iowa, and you sort of get what you get by the population distribution. So you can't really actively try to favor one party over another. The Democrats did get pretty lucky in the 2010 map, especially given later trends in the state, but it was really just luck. Also, if you read earlier in the thread, it was considered a favorable map for the Republicans at the time.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #69 on: February 11, 2020, 07:02:19 AM »

Not sure if it would be legal, but here is my attempt at an R gerrymander while keeping counties whole



Basically one dem sink, one tossup district and 2 safe R districts based on 2016. Based on 2012 the 2 R districts become competitive while the tossup district becomes safe D
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #70 on: February 15, 2020, 03:47:43 PM »

So due to the legislative role they'll likely get a map which is a bit favorable to Republicans but not an explicit gerrymander.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #71 on: February 18, 2020, 11:50:29 AM »

Not sure if it would be legal, but here is my attempt at an R gerrymander while keeping counties whole



Basically one dem sink, one tossup district and 2 safe R districts based on 2016. Based on 2012 the 2 R districts become competitive while the tossup district becomes safe D
They would probably consider it non-compact.

And if they can come up with another plan that has more precise population equality they will knock out your plan (if your plan has 1000 deviation between districts, it will be considered to be lousy).
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #72 on: February 18, 2020, 03:21:04 PM »

Not sure if it would be legal, but here is my attempt at an R gerrymander while keeping counties whole



Basically one dem sink, one tossup district and 2 safe R districts based on 2016. Based on 2012 the 2 R districts become competitive while the tossup district becomes safe D
They would probably consider it non-compact.

And if they can come up with another plan that has more precise population equality they will knock out your plan (if your plan has 1000 deviation between districts, it will be considered to be lousy).


Yeah, in Iowa they typically have deviations under 100 with no county splits. And the Des Moines-Iowa City district in particular definitely has too large of a width-height ratio to be considered.
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Frodo
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« Reply #73 on: February 18, 2020, 03:29:01 PM »
« Edited: February 18, 2020, 03:37:58 PM by Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia »

Here’s the 538 GOP gerrymander:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/60cda9dc-5f6e-491b-a0dd-232b9563018c

It looks like they could make a Dem vote sink in east IA to shore up the other three districts, plus crack Des Moines between IA-3 and IA-4.

Obviously it’s outdated and I don’t know what maps the new population would make.

You can't split counties in Iowa by law (unless necessary for population equality, but in Iowa it's not because of the plethora of tiny counties).

Didn’t know that. Would it be possible to make a map with R-leaning districts?

They’d probably combine Polk with Story for a D vote sink. Then the leftovers of IA-3 can become part of the new IA-4 and the eastern remnants of the old IA-4 can become part of IA-1.

Also, is it possible to put Linn, Johnson, and Scott in one district so shore up IA-1 for the GOP?

Basically the way redistricting works in Iowa is that there is an extremely strict formula for how districts can be shaped, and counties can't be split. So they run a program that spits out a bunch of legally acceptable maps, which are created totally algorithmically, and then the legislature picks from among those options. The legislature can also ignore the program's choices and create their own, but they still have to follow the extremely strict rules about district shape (in particular, I believe the rule is something like that districts must all have a low ratio of their north-south axis to their east-west axis, but more mathematically determined than that), so there would in practice be no more than tiny deviations from what the program spits out (usually just switching one <2,000 person county for another).

This in practice means that gerrymandering is not really possible in Iowa, and you sort of get what you get by the population distribution. So you can't really actively try to favor one party over another. The Democrats did get pretty lucky in the 2010 map, especially given later trends in the state, but it was really just luck. Also, if you read earlier in the thread, it was considered a favorable map for the Republicans at the time.

So Iowa Republicans are better off focusing on redrawing the legislature.  
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #74 on: February 18, 2020, 04:09:23 PM »

Here’s the 538 GOP gerrymander:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/60cda9dc-5f6e-491b-a0dd-232b9563018c

It looks like they could make a Dem vote sink in east IA to shore up the other three districts, plus crack Des Moines between IA-3 and IA-4.

Obviously it’s outdated and I don’t know what maps the new population would make.

You can't split counties in Iowa by law (unless necessary for population equality, but in Iowa it's not because of the plethora of tiny counties).

Didn’t know that. Would it be possible to make a map with R-leaning districts?

They’d probably combine Polk with Story for a D vote sink. Then the leftovers of IA-3 can become part of the new IA-4 and the eastern remnants of the old IA-4 can become part of IA-1.

Also, is it possible to put Linn, Johnson, and Scott in one district so shore up IA-1 for the GOP?

Basically the way redistricting works in Iowa is that there is an extremely strict formula for how districts can be shaped, and counties can't be split. So they run a program that spits out a bunch of legally acceptable maps, which are created totally algorithmically, and then the legislature picks from among those options. The legislature can also ignore the program's choices and create their own, but they still have to follow the extremely strict rules about district shape (in particular, I believe the rule is something like that districts must all have a low ratio of their north-south axis to their east-west axis, but more mathematically determined than that), so there would in practice be no more than tiny deviations from what the program spits out (usually just switching one <2,000 person county for another).

This in practice means that gerrymandering is not really possible in Iowa, and you sort of get what you get by the population distribution. So you can't really actively try to favor one party over another. The Democrats did get pretty lucky in the 2010 map, especially given later trends in the state, but it was really just luck. Also, if you read earlier in the thread, it was considered a favorable map for the Republicans at the time.

So Iowa Republicans are better off focusing on redrawing the legislature.  


I think the rules for the legislature are the same, although you have to split counties given the district sizes (but a similar rule applies for municipality splits, though again in a few places you do have to split municipalities, such as Des Moines).
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