US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, I think they'll just go with this one. All four incumbents live in their districts, Hinson and Miller-Meeks should be generally favored barring a blue wave (which 2022 will not be) and they'll generally have a good shot at knocking off Axne.

IDK though if it's a republican midterm Democrats could easily regain a 3-1 delegation.

Or if Iowa became a swing state again in a Presidential year.  You have three districts voting to the left of the state in this map.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, I think they'll just go with this one. All four incumbents live in their districts, Hinson and Miller-Meeks should be generally favored barring a blue wave (which 2022 will not be) and they'll generally have a good shot at knocking off Axne.

IDK though if it's a republican midterm Democrats could easily regain a 3-1 delegation.

Or if Iowa became a swing state again in a Presidential year.  You have three districts voting to the left of the state in this map.

The commission rules make this inevitable unless you make IA-03 Safe Dem.

[Pollster]

This new map makes Miller-Meeks' district two-ish points bluer, which importantly would have been more than enough for Hart to win last year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So a minimal-change map that makes all the COIs a bit worse but keeps the partisan balance basically intact. Oh well. The first map was clearly better, but as long as the GOP doesn't get a blatant gerrymander through I guess this will do.

[Devils30]

Little change, Dems would have a chance at 2/4 in a 2020 type year, 3/4 in a 2018 and lose all 4 in a 2010-14. Axne gets basically the same district that could trend D if Dallas, Polk swing more D.

[indietraveler]

Much more republican friendly map here - honestly I thought we would see something like this if we didn't get a central DSM based district.

3R-1D being the most likely outcome with this map. If rural/urban trends continue it will hold this way throughout the decade. If not or if the trend slows or stays static, it wouldn't even take a huge D wave to make this 3D-1R.

[politicallefty]

So a minimal-change map that makes all the COIs a bit worse but keeps the partisan balance basically intact. Oh well. The first map was clearly better, but as long as the GOP doesn't get a blatant gerrymander through I guess this will do.

Agreed. It's not the ideal map, but it is acceptable. It can't be helped that the state has been trending rightward quickly. What has helped somewhat is that Republicans have a vote sink in the western part of the state like many other states in the plains (in a strictly political sense, IA-04 is quite similar to KS-01 and NE-03).

This map does have a resemblance to a certain symbol...

[Skill and Chance]

This new map makes Miller-Meeks' district two-ish points bluer, which importantly would have been more than enough for Hart to win last year.

No, she gets 2% redder.  It's Hinson's district that gets a little bluer, but she seems to run way stronger than Generic R. 

EDIT: NVM, they switched the district numbers.  Hinson is redder and Miller-Meeks is bluer.

[Pollster]

This new map makes Miller-Meeks' district two-ish points bluer, which importantly would have been more than enough for Hart to win last year.

No, she gets 2% redder.  It's Hinson's district that gets a little bluer, but she seems to run way stronger than Generic R. 

Miller-Meeks' district would be the new IA-01, not the new IA-02.

[GALeftist]

Could be a lot worse, but could be a lot better, too. Overall, I'll take it, especially from a state with an R trifecta. IA-03 is marginal and trending D, and should have a blue hue by 2024. IA-01 and IA-02 might also be winnable in good years even if Iowa is red overall, which it will be.

[Non Swing Voter]

The new map looks like a serious dummymander for Republicans.  If enough Iowa boomers retire to Margaritaville, FL this decade, they could lose 3 districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2018 Governor numbers for all these districts:
IA-01 51-46.9 Dem
IA-02 48.8-48.6 Dem
IA-03 51.2-46.8 Dem
IA-04 59.1-38.8 Rep

2020 Senate:
IA-01 48.9-48 Rep
IA-02 49.9-47.1 Rep
IA-03 48.7-48.3 Rep
IA-04 59.9-36.9 Rep

2016 President:
IA-01 47.9-44.8 Rep
IA-02 48.7-44.1 Rep
IA-03 47.8-44.8 Rep
IA-04 60.2-33.2 Rep

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, can we just be in awe a bit at the deviation they attained? This is what 2020 population figures are, per DRA.
IA-01 797,584   -8
IA-02 797,589   -3
IA-03 797,551   -41
IA-04 797,645   53

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha that map has dummymander written all over it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ha that map has dummymander written all over it.

The second map the redistricting agency put out, or the one reagent just posted? Or both?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Y’all do realize that an IA-3 D “vote sink” doenst really do anything to make IA-1 or IA-2 much better for the GOP; it mostly just makes already red IA-4 redder. IA-3 is inevitably going to be a tossup following re districting at best for GOP, because of rules so this really ain’t anymore of a dummymander than a D leaning Des Moine based seat map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Y’all do realize that an IA-3 D “vote sink” doenst really do anything to make IA-1 or IA-2 much better for the GOP; it mostly just makes already red IA-4 redder. IA-3 is inevitably going to be a tossup following re districting at best for GOP, because of rules so this really ain’t anymore of a dummymander than a D leaning Des Moine based seat map.

Depends on if it goes east or not. But it's possible to put Iowa City and Des Moines in the same seat, and that would produce a CD that is around 55-56% Dem iirc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what a good 3R-1D map would look like.
DRA link

[ProgressiveModerate]

Y’all do realize that an IA-3 D “vote sink” doenst really do anything to make IA-1 or IA-2 much better for the GOP; it mostly just makes already red IA-4 redder. IA-3 is inevitably going to be a tossup following re districting at best for GOP, because of rules so this really ain’t anymore of a dummymander than a D leaning Des Moine based seat map.

Depends on if it goes east or not. But it's possible to put Iowa City and Des Moines in the same seat, and that would produce a CD that is around 55-56% Dem iirc.

That isn't really possible with IA's rules

[Oryxslayer]

This is what a good 3R-1D map would look like.
DRA link

Yep, and it has too high deviation, which is why you move down the GOP checklist to next best thing: 4-0.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Take two.
Turns out it's better to pack the East and crack the West?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3aa1309-6f30-4e55-b58f-e992aa22f0ff

[Minnesota Mike]

Map 2 passes the IA Senate 48-1.

[Minnesota Mike]

And map 2 passes the IA House 93-2. On to governor.

[Frodo]

Iowa Senate, House approve second set of proposed redistricting maps
The map will go to Governor Reynolds for her signature



The congressional map is not the only map that was approved by the legislature:

[Nyvin]

Reynolds signed the maps into law