US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Mail-order President]

How is this map? All of the incumbents have separate districts and are likely safe for the remainder of the decade.

President 2016/2020
IA-01 (Axne): D +10.3
IA-02 (Miller-Meeks): R +13.3
IA-03 (Feenstra): R +20.9
IA-04 (Hinson): R +12.0

[BoiseBoy]

How is this map? All of the incumbents have separate districts and are likely safe for the remainder of the decade.

President 2016/2020
IA-01 (Axne): D +10.3
IA-02 (Miller-Meeks): R +13.3
IA-03 (Feenstra): R +20.9
IA-04 (Hinson): R +12.0

This would not be acceptable as Iowa requires districts to be reasonably compact, in regards to district length/width and the size of their boundaries/perimeter.

[Mail-order President]

How is this map? All of the incumbents have separate districts and are likely safe for the remainder of the decade.

President 2016/2020
IA-01 (Axne): D +10.3
IA-02 (Miller-Meeks): R +13.3
IA-03 (Feenstra): R +20.9
IA-04 (Hinson): R +12.0

This would not be acceptable as Iowa requires districts to be reasonably compact, in regards to district length/width and the size of their boundaries/perimeter.

Ah. That constraint makes a bit harder to make 4 safe districts. Thanks for the feedback.

[Minnesota Mike]

For all of you drawing Iowa maps with population ranges in the hundreds or the thousands a little history.

Overall population range of Congressional districts in adopted plans.

1981: 217 (+144, -73)
1991: 265 (+143, -122)
2001: : 134 (+40, -94)
2011: 76 (+35, -41)*
* From DRA.

A good overview how redistricting actually works from a lawyer in 2011.

https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/REDST/Redistricting_in_Iowa.pdf

[politicallefty]

It really seems like the best map for Iowa is one that has a central district centred around Des Moines, a large Western district, and a district for Northeast Iowa and Southeast Iowa. Having four separate quadrant districts may look nice, but I think it disregards communities of interest. I was looking at some of Wasserman's maps, but I saw one in the comments that looked quite ideal:

https://twitter.com/JackPeter124/status/1428856825621979144

I don't know what the population deviations are, but I think it's the most ideal map for the state so long as deviations are reasonable.

[Devils30]

After last night's results with the suburbs still very strong for Dems, think maybe the GOP decides they need to shore up IA-1 and 2 and instead packs Iowa City into 3 and creates a Dem seat for Axne while making things a very safe 3-1 for the decade. I know the state is trending R but midterm turnout patterns with whites can threaten an incumbent only elected by 6 votes!

[Skill and Chance]

After last night's results with the suburbs still very strong for Dems, think maybe the GOP decides they need to shore up IA-1 and 2 and instead packs Iowa City into 3 and creates a Dem seat for Axne while making things a very safe 3-1 for the decade. I know the state is trending R but midterm turnout patterns with whites can threaten an incumbent only elected by 6 votes!

I strongly expect they will just go ahead with the commission computer-generated map as long as it doesn't spit out 2 Biden districts.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

After last night's results with the suburbs still very strong for Dems, think maybe the GOP decides they need to shore up IA-1 and 2 and instead packs Iowa City into 3 and creates a Dem seat for Axne while making things a very safe 3-1 for the decade. I know the state is trending R but midterm turnout patterns with whites can threaten an incumbent only elected by 6 votes!

I don't think that's possible due to the very strict whole county and compactness rules.

[BoiseBoy]

Maps were shown physically today just a few minutes ago. The Legislature's website should have them up soon.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateBoulton/status/1438517942182821889?s=20

[S019]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1438520066316832768

[Skill and Chance]

Wow.  I think that IA-01 is a Biden district?

[BoiseBoy]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

[Skill and Chance]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

IA-01 well left of IA-03.  Even bigger wow.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

[Gass3268]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Eh, Dallas and Polk have the vast majority of the population in that district and both are moving left.

[Skill and Chance]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

IDK if they are looking to concede a seat, they would probably rather have it be a Des Moines+Ames IA-03 that could trend left than have currently hard R trending IA-01 packed with colleges.  

[Nyvin]

Giving IA-1 Jackson county makes it compliant with population deviation, which is stupid obvious.   Wonder if that's a mistake on the map?

[Devils30]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Eh, Dallas and Polk have the vast majority of the population in that district and both are moving left.

This won't pass but you wonder if maybe they cut a deal to make IA-3 a clear lean Dem seat in exchange for 1,2 being like Trump +8-12.

[BoiseBoy]

Updated map. Jackson actually goes into IA-02. IA-02 is now Trump +10.8. IA-01 is now Biden +8.6. That would explain why the first version I posted had some really off population numbers.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I do think both parties in Iowa tend to like their non-partisan redistricting proccese and I personaly doubt that either caucus leader is in for a painful redistricting fight(which it will have to be given the structure of the counsition and it's redistircting procces). I don't think the commision will get overriden.

[Gass3268]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Eh, Dallas and Polk have the vast majority of the population in that district and both are moving left.

This won't pass but you wonder if maybe they cut a deal to make IA-3 a clear lean Dem seat in exchange for 1,2 being like Trump +8-12.

That would be the smart thing for Iowa Republicans to do. Even if Iowa is now a solid Likely-R state, going for the 4-0 could result in a 3-1 for Democrats given the states political geography, population growth, and political trends.

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Do you mean 2022 or future? Cause about 80% of people live in Dallas, Polk, and Warren who are zooming left. Trump won this IA-03 by 2 points in 2016, now its Biden by a hair.

But yeah, the GOP are Probably going to tell the computer to give them a map with a lower deviation cause they dislike this one. Try to get a better result like they have done previously. Of course the computer could just spit out the 2-2 drawn by Dave Wasserman's contestant winner with a div of <10.

[Nyvin]

Miller-Meeks is going to be superbly pissed off if this map passes, lol

They're basically conceding IA-2 with this.

[Roll Roons]

Miller-Meeks is going to be superbly pissed off if this map passes, lol

They're basically conceding IA-2 with this.

She actually lives in Ottumwa, so her district is pretty safe. It's actually Hinson who gets screwed, since she lives in Linn County.