jimrtex
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« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2011, 02:10:50 PM » |
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This map shows the shifts for Texas 31 senate districts. Since no new districts are created, it gives a better picture of intrastate growth.
The Houston area has a surplus of about 70,000 which is shown as an outflow from SD-3 and SD-18, which is mainly from growth in Fort Bend and Montgomery counties. The DFW area has a surplus of about 120,000 which is shown as outflow from SD-2 and SD-30 as these districts become increasingly suburban, shedding more rural areas while suburban areas grow (senate districts needed to add 135,000 people to just keep even).
Central Texas has a surplus of about 175,000, which includes the excess from SD-5 and SD-14 from Williamson and Travis counties, plus the population needed to bring SD-29 in El Paso up to equality.
Inflows into rural areas include 80,000 in to SD-1 in northeast Texas, which is the only district in the eastern part of the state not to include a suburban area that provides enough growth to maintain the districts configuration. Presumably the split of Smith County will be eliminated.
SD-28 and SD-31 in west Texas collectively need about 150,000, but SD-31 has to get its 85,000 from SD-28, which will bring it south to include all of the panhandle (the senate redistricting chairman is from Amarillo, so an Amarillo-Lubbock district is not on the table.
SD-28 will probably need to take Abilene (Taylor County) though it is more than is needed from SD-24. SD-24 can then extend north to absorb the excess from SD-30. This will make Bell County the dominant area in SD-24 which is becoming a central Texas district.
SD-29 in El Paso needs enough about 50,000 more, which will place all of El Paso County in the district, and to reach closer to equality, Hudspeth, Culberson, and Jeff Davis.
SD-24 needs net of about 25,000 as growth in places like Bell and Burnet counties have helped it keep up with the state. But will the loss of Abilene, it has to continue moving east. To avoid taking in part of Williamson or Travis counties, it might take Coryell from SD-22 and the southern part of the Hill Country from SD-19 and SD-25. While SD-25, SD-26, and SD-19 slide north from San Antonio towards Austin.
SD-21 needs about 60,000 which in the flow map map would come from TX-18 taking counties in the direction of Victoria.
Since SD-19 will be losing the tip of its tail in El Paso, it would make sense to remove it completely. SD-31. SD-24, and SD-28 could nibble southward, and then Maverick, Val Verde, and the remnant of the Trans Pecos moved to SD-21. Certainly Eagle Pass and Del Rio have more in common with Laredo than they do with San Antonio. SD-19 then would then become a San Antonio and southern suburbs district. SD-18 could be brought south to include San Patricio and Bee counties, while counties like Bastrop, Caldwell, and Gonzalez are shifted to SD-25.
SD-20 and SD-27 together have about the right population. If Nueces were swapped for the eastern part of Hidalgo county, the Hidalgo split could be eliminated.
In the Houston area, SD-7 in has a surplus of 200,000; while SD-6 has a deficit of 170,000 and SD-13 has a deficit of 80,000. Since the latter two are minority majority districts, the population shift may have to come from SD-15, with traditionally black areas in northwest Houston and Denver Harbor being moved into SD-13, and areas in east Harris county, Baytown, etc. being moved into SD-6.
It is likely that the fishhook of SD-17 will be eliminated. The remainder of Jefferson and Chambers counties could be moved to SD-4, with SD-15 taking in northeast Harris County to compensate. SD-11 could take in the remainder of Galveston, and let SD-6 come southward. SD-17 would then take more of west Houston from SD-7. Harris barely has enough population for 5 senators, so pushing SD-4 out of the county makes sense, which would leave, SD-6, SD-7, and SD-15 completely in the county, SD-13 mostly in the county, and SD-11 and SD-17 both partially in the county.
In the DFW area, SD-12 has a surplus of 210,000, and SD-8 has a surplus of 130,000; while SD-16 has a deficit of 170,000 amd SD-24 has a deficit 60,000. SD-2 and SD-30 have small surpluses, but they need to replenish SD-1 in east Texas, and SD-24 and SD-28 further west, so they will need some population from the more central districts.
Presumably SD-16 and SD-23 will move northward. Dallas County is a bit short of the population needed for 3 senate districts, so having SD-16 and SD-23 in Dallas County, and parts of SD-2 and SD-9 in the county would make more sense. Collin County is just short of the population needed for its own senate district, so SD-8 could end up as the entire county. SD-9 and SD-12 would not be changed much, while SD-30 would take a much larger share of Denton County. In 2020, Wichita Falls could be shifted west, and then SD-30 will become a suburban district with Denton County as its core.
In central Texas SD-5 and SD-14 have shifts which are shown as westward shifts to help replenish the west Texas districts, but would result in a a split of Williamson and and additional split of Travis. An alternative is to transfer Coryell from SD-22 to SD-24, and then have SD-22 swing further south into SD-5.
The excess of SD-14 can be moved into SD-25, which could give up Kendall County to SD-24, with other portions going to SD-19, which would transfer Bandera, Real, Edwards, and Sutton to SD-24.
With the realignment of the western tail of SD-19 to SD-21 (see above), SD-5 would become definitively a San Antonio-Austin district, while SD-19 would become a San Antonio and southern suburban counties district.
The current five border districts are short about 150,000 short. So instead of continuing to move them northward, reducing them to 4 districts which are likely to elect someone from a border community makes more sense.
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