Why the hell is Missouri called "the bellwether state"

[Mechaman]

I mean Ohio and Nevada (according to this) are more accurate.  And if you want to go even further back............


Kind of odd that they start in 1904 in order to try to get Missouri it's overrated "bellwether" status.

[krazen1211]

I mean Ohio and Nevada (according to this) are more accurate.  And if you want to go even further back............


Kind of odd that they start in 1904 in order to try to get Missouri it's overrated "bellwether" status.

Location and demographics are most often cited as the cause of Missouri's bellwether status. The Chicago Tribune calls Missouri the "bellwether state that almost exactly mirrors the demographic, economic and political makeup of the nation."[9] A microcosm of the country's current political makeup, Missouri has its two Blue "coasts" of St. Louis and Kansas City with Red middle and southern areas (see Red states and blue states).
Since 1980, the mean center of U.S. population of the United States (which has been moving steadily westward) has been in Missouri (currently in Phelps County). Missouri is in the center of the country, distant from the coast and the national borders. It shares a border with two Southern states, three Plains states, two Midwestern states, and one other Border state.

[Mechaman]

I mean Ohio and Nevada (according to this) are more accurate.  And if you want to go even further back............


Kind of odd that they start in 1904 in order to try to get Missouri it's overrated "bellwether" status.

Location and demographics are most often cited as the cause of Missouri's bellwether status. The Chicago Tribune calls Missouri the "bellwether state that almost exactly mirrors the demographic, economic and political makeup of the nation."[9] A microcosm of the country's current political makeup, Missouri has its two Blue "coasts" of St. Louis and Kansas City with Red middle and southern areas (see Red states and blue states).
Since 1980, the mean center of U.S. population of the United States (which has been moving steadily westward) has been in Missouri (currently in Phelps County). Missouri is in the center of the country, distant from the coast and the national borders. It shares a border with two Southern states, three Plains states, two Midwestern states, and one other Border state.

Okay that makes a lot more sense than "hurr durr it voted the most accurately for the winner!" logic I hear a lot.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Because it voted with every winner from 1904 to 2004, with sole exception of 1956?

Kentucky and Delaware were used to be called bellwether states as well.

[phk]

At one point it was an accurate reflection of America. But these days it has too few Hispanics and Asians and maybe too many Blacks.

[minionofmidas]

maybe too many Blacks.

No.

As to that "blue and red coasts" thingy... it has no Democratic Upper Midwest. Add one and you'd get it far closer to national average in vote patterns.

Yah, the real answer is "because journalistic usage of such terms tends to lag behind reality a fair bit".

[memphis]

First, the cartoon is about how strange it was in 1904 for MO to have voted GOP. It had been a reliably Dem state. And then for a long time, it was a swing state. Pretty obviously leans GOP today with rural areas falling hard in love with the Republican party.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also note the location. MO, KY, and DE are all "border states" on the Civil War map. Back in the old days, the Political alignment was essentially the Civil War map and thus it makes sense that the swing states would be in the border states.


Also, Memphis is right about MO in 1904.

[freepcrusher]

a little bit off topic, but was the legislature run by democrats in the 90s? If so, they should have realized that something like this was going to happen to Ike Skelton sooner or later. What they should have done was make a district that starts in Columbia, heads west and takes in the counties between Columbia and KC (including his hometown Lexington) and then taking in the eastern part of Jackson County.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

a little bit off topic, but was the legislature run by democrats in the 90s? If so, they should have realized that something like this was going to happen to Ike Skelton sooner or later. What they should have done was make a district that starts in Columbia, heads west and takes in the counties between Columbia and KC (including his hometown Lexington) and then taking in the eastern part of Jackson County.

You expect people to see 10 years into the future, when in GA in 1991 they could see 1 and 3 years ahead, despite blatantly obvious GOP gains in atleast 2 if not three of the districts that they drew immediately in 1992.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Similarly to "landslide", the word "bellwether" is constantly misused.

People usually like to talk about bellwhethers as States which often vote like the nation overall. I think this conception is pretty erroneous, and I could detail my reasoning in a long post. But instead, I will simply consider two fictional States.

Here are the two State of Weirdland (WL) and Moderateland (ML). Let's see how the nation vote in 5 presidential elections :
El 1 : R+1
El 2 : R+3
El 3 : D+3
El 4 : R+1
El 5 : D+1

Here is the WL vote :
El 1 : R+15
El 2 : R+10
El 3 : D+15
El 4 : R+20
El 5 : D+10

And here ML vote :
El 1 : D+3
El 2 : D+1
El 3 : R+3
El 4 : D+2
El 5 : R+1

WL voted each time for te national winner, ML voted each time for the loser. Which is the best bellwhether of the two ?

[phk]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129982.0

MO has the 4th highest correlation behind PA, IN and NM for correlation of %D statewide to %D nationwide.

I'm working on the GOP numbers, but from 1960 to 2008, it can be somewhat justified in calling it a bellweather of sorts.

[Dunce]

Tennessee was a bellwhether from 1960-2004. McCain ended the chain.