EV Allocation Projection - 2030
Beefalow and the Consumer:
This is going to have a very high margin of error, and I'm using 1995 projections (re-interpolated with 2000 actuals) to extrapolate to 2030. My source:
http://www.census.gov/population/projections/state/stpjpop.txt
Series A is a strict population-based model, whereas Series B is an economic model of growth. I have no idea what this means specifically, but I made a map based on Series A, on based on Series B, then I averaged the two to produce a composite map:
Series A:
Series B:
Composite:
I'll do this again when more recent projections become available.
Democratic Hawk:
Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats
Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West
The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas
Dave
Beefalow and the Consumer:
Quote from: Democratic 'Hawk' on November 24, 2004, 11:30:44 AM
Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats
Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West
The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas
Don't forget Utah. It will go to 6 in 2010, and possibly 7 by 2030. Montana will go to 4 in 2010, but may drop back down to 3 (It does this typically). Idaho might go to 5. Georgia might go to 16. Most of these states will probably steal votes from CA, which would be very bad for the Donkey :-).
If the GOP can hang on to the Southwest, they'll pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 EVs from CO, AZ, NV, and NM (which may also trend Dem).
The outlook isn't all that great for the Democrats. They will need, in the long term, to focus on the Desert Southwest and Oregon. These are the going to be the swing states that pick up the most EVs. Not counting Utah (which will be GOP forever), it could be a pickup of as many as 7 EVs. That will make up for NY, PA, and IL.
Heh. It just occurred to me how important people like Harry Reid are to the future of the party.
Democratic Hawk:
Quote from: Beef on November 24, 2004, 12:13:15 PM
Quote from: Democratic 'Hawk' on November 24, 2004, 11:30:44 AM
Thanks for that. As the electoral geography stands, it doesn't seem to have too negative an impact on the Democrats
Should they retain their grip on the West Coast this will offset their 'losses' in the North-East and Mid-West
The only real joy for the GOP seems to be Florida and Texas
Don't forget Utah. It will go to 6 in 2010, and possibly 7 by 2030. Montana will go to 4 in 2010, but may drop back down to 3 (It does this typically). Idaho might go to 5. Georgia might go to 16. Most of these states will probably steal votes from CA, which would be very bad for the Donkey :-).
If the GOP can hang on to the Southwest, they'll pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 EVs from CO, AZ, NV, and NM (which may also trend Dem).
The outlook isn't all that great for the Democrats. They will need, in the long term, to focus on the Desert Southwest and Oregon. These are the going to be the swing states that pick up the most EVs. Not counting Utah (which will be GOP forever), it could be a pickup of as many as 7 EVs. That will make up for NY, PA, and IL.
Heh. It just occurred to me how important people like Harry Reid are to the future of the party.
Looks like I've completely forgot about the SW. I saw gains in FL and TX - and losses elsewhere
Dave
Bogart:
To fill in a gap, this is what I came up with after 2020. Still too CA heavy.
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