EV Allocation Projection - 2010
jimrtex:
Quote from: Bogart on November 24, 2004, 02:28:55 PM
I am very much looking forward to the new projections. Do you know exactly when they will be out?
The state estimates for July 2004, should be out at the end of next month. They are usually released right around Christmas. State projections based on the 2000 census will be released sometime next year. The current set was issued in 1995, based on the 1990 census.
Bogart:
Quote from: Beef on November 24, 2004, 05:50:52 PM
Quote from: Bogart on November 24, 2004, 02:28:55 PM
I would distribute CA's "extra" EVs as such:
First: Minnesota
Second: Ohio
Third: Arizona
----- This would put CA at 57, but just for fun... -----
Fourth: Nevada
Fifth: Georgia
A lot of it will have to do with there being any sizable migration from CA to more tax-friendly desert climes.
Yeah, I agree, that in all likelihood MN will keep it's 8th seat. OH probably. I'm not sure about AZ or NV. GA?????
jimrtex:
Quote from: Beef on November 24, 2004, 09:24:35 AM
Until we get more reliable 2010 projections next year, this is the best I can do
I came across a different projection method on polidata.org based on the census estimates. The took the 2001-2002 growth rate and the 2002-2003 growth rate, and averaged them. They then applied this rate in a compounded fashion to the 2003 estimate through 2010. This might be a little more accurate if the rate of growth has been changing.
??????????:
Then if Puerto Rico becomes a state then you have another tough nut to crack. :)
Defarge:
2 seats? We're going to lose two seats in 2010?! Is there no justice!?!?! :)
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