EV Allocation Projection - 2010

[Bogart]

This is what POLIDATA predicts for 2010.

[Alcon]

This is what POLIDATA predicts for 2010.

What are the changes there?

[Bogart]

Well, looks like:

CA +2, AZ +1, TX +3, FL +1, NV +1, UT +1, GA +1
MN -1, PA -1, NY -2, OH -2, MA -1

This is looking quickly.

[DaleC76]

^^Quoted from the site:

Tthe biggest gainers are: Texas, up 3 to 35 seats; California, up 2 to 55; and Florida, up 2 to 27. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.

The losing states would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.

[Alcon]

^^Quoted from the site:

Tthe biggest gainers are: Texas, up 3 to 35 seats; California, up 2 to 55; and Florida, up 2 to 27. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.

The losing states would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.

Thanks...but unless I'm crazy that doesn't match the map.

[Bogart]

Also of interest...

Next in line were:

Seat 436 - LA
Seat 437 - NY
Seat 438 - MN
Seat 439 - IL
Seat 440 - FL

[DaleC76]

^^Quoted from the site:

Tthe biggest gainers are: Texas, up 3 to 35 seats; California, up 2 to 55; and Florida, up 2 to 27. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.

The losing states would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.

Thanks...but unless I'm crazy that doesn't match the map.

They're listing house seats, not EVs.  Add 2 to each number. 

[Alcon]

^^Quoted from the site:

Tthe biggest gainers are: Texas, up 3 to 35 seats; California, up 2 to 55; and Florida, up 2 to 27. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.

The losing states would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.

Thanks...but unless I'm crazy that doesn't match the map.

They're listing house seats, not EVs.  Add 2 to each number. 

Haha, good lord am I a moron.

[Bogart]

Yeah, I goofed a bit. Was in a hurry. Think I've corrected it. I forgot to adjust LA.

[zorkpolitics]

^^Quoted from the Polidata site:

Tthe biggest gainers are: Texas, up 3 to 35 seats; California, up 2 to 55; and Florida, up 2 to 27. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.

The losing states would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.

Interesitng, these changes would make it even harder for a Democrat to win in 20012.
The changes would result in a net 4 EV gain for the Bush Republican states of 2004.  Also, losing OH in 2012 would still yield a Republican win with 272 EV, if all other Bush states went to a Republican.