EV Allocation Projection - 2010
Beefalow and the Consumer:
This is based primarily on data from this page:
http://www.census.gov/population/projections/state/stpjpop.txt
However, I have re-interpolated their numbers with the actual population totals from the 2000 census (these projections are from 1995). I have also used a few other projections I have found from sources like the CDC.
Until we get more reliable 2010 projections next year, this is the best I can do:
Almost certain changes:
-----------------------
-Texas +2
-Utah +1
-Montana +1
-California +1 (at least)
-Oregon +1
-Iowa -1
-New York -1 (at least)
-Pennsylvania -1
-Ohio -1 (at least)
-Illinois -1
-Massachusetts -1
Probable Changes:
-----------------
-Florida +1
-Washington +1
-New York -2
-Michigan -1
Possible Changes:
-----------------
-California +2
-Arizona +1
-Georgia +1
-Nevada +1
-Ohio -2
-Missouri -1
-Minnesota -1
Extremely unlikely:
-------------------
West Virginia -1
North Carolina -1
New Jersey -1
California +3
Democratic Hawk:
Now that is bad news for the Democrats
Dave
Beefalow and the Consumer:
Quote from: Democratic 'Hawk' on November 24, 2004, 12:25:37 PM
Now that is bad news for the Democrats
Dave
Yeah, probably...
The Dems could pick up as many as 5 in CA, OR and WA. Maybe they only lose 1 in NY, 1 in IL, 1 in MI, 1 in MA, and 1 in PA. Those would offset for no net change. Except that CA will probably only pick up 2, and NY will lose 2, so that means a net loss of 2, best case scenario.
The GOP may only get 1 in TX (theoretically), 1 in UT, 1 in MT, for a pickup of only 3. Best case scenario.
Count FL, AZ, NV, OH, and IA as battlegrounds, and they will net anywhere from +1 to -3.
Worst case scenario for the Dems: CA, OR +1, WA 0, NY -2, PA, IL, MI, MA -1. TX +2, UT, MT, GA +1, AZ, NV, FL +1 and stay GOP. Net pickup of -4 Dem / +8 for GOP. A 12 EV swing. Enough to counterbalance, say, IA and NM.
Bottom line: Lots of Dem state will lose EVs, and only three can gain. There isn't a single GOP state that will lose EVs, and at least three are certian to gain.
Bogart:
That's pretty much what I had. The major flaw is, of course, CA. There is no way it is going to grow fast enough to pick up 5 seats. This, of course, throws other states in play. I am very much looking forward to the new projections. Do you know exactly when they will be out?
Beefalow and the Consumer:
Quote from: Bogart on November 24, 2004, 02:28:55 PM
That's pretty much what I had. The major flaw is, of course, CA. There is no way it is going to grow fast enough to pick up 5 seats. This, of course, throws other states in play.
I would distribute CA's "extra" EVs as such:
First: Minnesota
Second: Ohio
Third: Arizona
----- This would put CA at 57, but just for fun... -----
Fourth: Nevada
Fifth: Georgia
A lot of it will have to do with there being any sizable migration from CA to more tax-friendly desert climes.
Quote from: Bogart on November 24, 2004, 02:28:55 PM
I am very much looking forward to the new projections. Do you know exactly when they will be out?
I'm not really sure, but I think it might be December 2005 :-(.
* Beef is looking for stuff to do now that there's no Presidential race to analyze.
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