The Next Tunisia/Five Arab states that are ripe for revolution

[dead0man]

Back on topic....link

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[dead0man]

play-by-play of events in Egypt (and Lebanon) today

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much much more at link

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I wouldn't be happy, in contrast to Tunisia, about Egypt situation due to two words: Muslim Brotherhood.

[Beet]

If this wave of protest/revolution doesn't go well, it can't be blamed on foreign intervention or imperialism. There has been no uptick in Western intervention in North Africa of late. These events are entirely domestically driven.

The problem is not a Islamic-oriented, democratic government, or a government led by the Muslim brotherhood, per se. The worry is more obvious by looking at examples of Hezbollah, Iran, and Pakistan. Pakistan, is a US ally and is not categorized as having an Islamist government, yet it operates in many ways under Islamic law, and assassins are hailed as heroes while others are too afraid to speak or march. The rule of law is very shaky and the democracy is very corrupt and not very long lasting. Iran, was born in a revolution very similar to what is happening now. The Shah's regime was very oppressive and overthrown by a popular coalition that included all sides of the political spectrum. But today Iran is a very oppressive regime and extremely polarized society. Finally, Hezbollah, a heavily armed and occasionally violent political party, which outsiders obviously have reason to be wary of.

Hence, big problems can occur by any angle. In Algeria, the civil war of the 1990s was very devastating, so that is another example. That that country has relative peace today was hard won.

[Хahar 🤔]

Dictatorial parties don't have an "ideology" besides keeping power.

That's not strictly true. If we look at the example of Bangladesh, BAKSAL was clearly to the left of the BNP. The point stands, though.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't see any kind of revolution coming in Algeria, because of the civil war memories. This trauma is still alive.

I don't see it in Libya either. Uncle Muammar already took care.

Egypt worries me due to Muslim Brotherhood strength and whatever we think about Mubarak (who is dying from cancer anyway), it's not a good option.

Tunisia may be successfull, due to lack of fundamentalism

[Beet]

I would have no problem with a Muslim Brotherhood led government in Egypt provided it was truly democratic, not internationally violent/terrorist supporting and respected press freedoms, human rights. In fact that may be the best possible outcome from all of this.

Unfortunately, the chances of this are highly uncertain.

[Insula Dei]

I would have no problem with a Muslim Brotherhood led government in Egypt provided it was truly democratic, not internationally violent/terrorist supporting and respected press freedoms, human rights. In fact that may be the best possible outcome from all of this.

Unfortunately, the chances of this are highly uncertain.

^^^^

Though the sort of situation where that could happen would probably be one of chaos and unrest and hence less desirable.

[dead0man]

Stay classy Eyptian rioters!

[dead0man]

..and you can add Yemen to the mix.  link

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Dictatorial parties don't have an "ideology" besides keeping power.

That's not strictly true. If we look at the example of Bangladesh, BAKSAL was clearly to the left of the BNP. The point stands, though.

Yeah, of course there are a lot of exceptions usually. Ideology can be very strong in totalitarian regimes, it's easy to find examples in the history. But generally, I think ideology tends to fade away when a party holds power for too much time. China is of course the best example of that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As I understand it, ElBaradei sort of appointed himself leader of the Egyptian opposition today.   While this makes him an opportunist as much as an attention whore, he'd still be an improvement over Mubarak, I guess.

[Stranger in a strange land]

As I understand it, ElBaradei sort of appointed himself leader of the Egyptian opposition today.   While this makes him an opportunist as much as an attention whore, he'd still be an improvement over Mubarak, I guess.

He'd be an improvement over Mubarak, and he's pretty clearly not an Islamist.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The question is: can El Baradei hang on then, or it would be Iran 1979?

Oh, by the way, internet in Egypt is down. Hosni, you're slow.

[Person Man]

Stay classy Eyptian rioters!

Probably the riots, the anarchy and all the other dangerous and fun stuff would be one thing in a vaccum. This picture pretty much symbolizes why having a M.B. Eygpt would be a tragedy. Do we really want an Islamist government so close to Israel? Isn't Hizbollah enough Islamism for the levant? Eygpt seems to be the most vulenable and riskiest of the possible revolutions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The fall of the Jordanian monarchy would also mean the fall of their hot queen, which is why it'd be a tragedy. Who cares about democracy as long as you have a queen that hot?

[Silent Hunter]

that the regime used to buy weapons from Warsaw Pact countries.

Egypt changed sides in the Cold War in the 1970s and have generally bought American since then, but did buy a lot of Soviet stuff before then; the presence of Egyptian Tu-16 "Badger" bombers was a factor in Israel's pre-emption in 1967.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Because I think Egypt deserves its own thread now:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131266.0

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

As I said in a thread I just opened, Algeria could join in.

Other than that, Yemen and Sudan could become hot spots too.

Yemen already had several protests, a big one right after the victory of the Tunisian revolution, and several ones during Egypt one. All calling for the fall of Saleh (32 years in power).

Sudan could be at a turn with this referendum, it could participate to its destabilization. The referendum led to several debates about the identity of what will remain of Sudan, and, the guy which has been the Islamist ideologue of Omar El Bechir, entered in opposition against him for a while now, and also right after the Tunisian revolution openly said that Bechir's regime should fall too. Since then I heard about some anti-Bechir repressed demonstrations, but not something big apparently, what's happening in South Sudan, and especially Egypt could accelerate the things there too.

People often feared of 'Islamists!!' for the preceding countries, while I would lack of knowledge about the exact social and political situations of those both countries it would seem to me that if there can be problems about that, it would rather be in those both. Though, you never know, that's anyhow people of those countries to see what they want, and letting Islamists publicly expressing themselves and having to concretely deal with reality is always safer than repressing them for what they are and letting them spreading out of reality fantasies and appearing as martyrs. And terrorism doesn't necessarily need friendly states to exist.

I often thought that Jordan was kinda protected of an ousting because of its status of monarchy, symbolically it's harder to oust a monarchy, and, in Jordan, the current monarch wouldn't have the image of a bad guy. It has been the country in which there has been the most protests after Tunisia and Egypt, but in those protest people pleaded for low prices, against corruption, and for a new govt, not necessarily against the King. Though you never know, could also depend on what happens in Palestine in the same time, I don't know.

I thought kinda the same for Morocco. A country which misses of freedom, has poverty problems, would have corruption ones as well, but is a kingdom too, and the relatively recent change of king gave someone more inclined to economically develop his country, would have given a bit more freedom, and less repression (the father was an other matter). But today, I heard a cousin of the King said that all what is happening in the Arab world could very well touch Morocco, about which I didn't hear the slightest move of protest since this the beginning of this wave so far. So, who knows, and who knows, the protest could also be agitated by an opponent inside the royal family, which would permit to maintain the symbol of the monarchy and to change the head of state in the same time. Though Morocco is, to a lesser extent than Tunisia, the Arab country outside of the peninsula in which the middle classes and the education have been the most developed, then maybe they would care less of the symbol of monarchy. Though in this country the population is more broad than in Tunisia, and the Islamist movements are more implemented in the population, especially in lowest classes, as usual.

I'd love to see it happening in Lybia. Oil can buy civil peace there too and regime seems quite tough, but you never know, a few demonstrations happened there after Tunisia.

On the longer term, and especially if Egypt falls, the oil monarchies/emirates of the Gulf might have to wonder about their future, maybe people even if they would have less money problems could be inclined to ask for more rights there too...

Anyhow, Tunisia, Egypt, maybe Jordan, Morocco, tough year for tourism. Lol at all those French tourists ranting on TV about the fact they were blocked in airport and that they couldn't take their flight to go in vacations in Egypt, in the same way they would have ranted about snow or a strike. Surrealist. The same way they would have been all scared if they would have been there taken in the conflict, saying that all of this is awful, not understanding why people were protesting, that it should have been calm vacations, and some might even be able to rant about the fact that their isn't enough flights to take them back to home. When tourism meets, the other life.

Ah, and, let's not the apparent calm in Syria so far. It wouldn't make move Iraq I guess. And, Lebanon, well, the Sunnis who protested after the nomination of PM from a Hezbollah dominated majority had named their protest after the name of the 1st day of Egypt's protest, 'day of anger', some thought maybe it wasn't random, this climate could encourage all those who don't want of Hezbollah to lead big protests too, the same way it happened a few years ago. Ah and, for those who would consider Mauritania an Arab country, one immolation took place there after Tunisia too.

I think I forgot no Arab country.

[Edu]

I thought kinda the same for Morocco. A country which misses of freedom, has poverty problems, would have corruption ones as well, but is a kingdom too, and the relatively recent change of king gave someone more inclined to economically develop his country, would have given a bit more freedom, and less repression (the father was an other matter). But today, I heard a cousin of the King said that all what is happening in the Arab world could very well touch Morocco, about which I didn't hear the slightest move of protest since this the beginning of this wave so far. So, who knows, and who knows, the protest could also be agitated by an opponent inside the royal family, which would permit to maintain the symbol of the monarchy and to change the head of state in the same time. Though Morocco is, to a lesser extent than Tunisia, the Arab country outside of the peninsula in which the middle classes and the education have been the most developed, then maybe they would care less of the symbol of monarchy. Though in this country the population is more broad than in Tunisia, and the Islamist movements are more implemented in the population, especially in lowest classes, as usual.

FWIW when i went to Morocco 2 years ago the general feeling i got was that people were content with the king praising him as a great improvement over his father that brought a much better economy to the country.
In Egypt 5 years ago people where ambivalent, but the complaints against Mubarak where probably louder than the praise.
In Tunisia, on the other hand, i don't think i have encountered anyone that said anything even remotely nice thing about Ben Ali. That he was a dictator and a crook with a wife and family even worse than him was probably the nicest thing i heard about the guy. I went there exactly a year ago.

Not sure my anecdotal evidence means anything, but i do find it interesting nowadays

[2952-0-0]

The fall of the Jordanian monarchy would also mean the fall of their hot queen, which is why it'd be a tragedy. Who cares about democracy as long as you have a queen that hot?

The Jordanians seem to hold loyalty to their monarch while venting their rage against the government. And besides, maybe the new Republic will make Rania its ceremonial President.

[big bad fab]

Dictatorial parties don't have an "ideology" besides keeping power.

That's not strictly true. If we look at the example of Bangladesh, BAKSAL was clearly to the left of the BNP. The point stands, though.

Yeah, of course there are a lot of exceptions usually. Ideology can be very strong in totalitarian regimes, it's easy to find examples in the history. But generally, I think ideology tends to fade away when a party holds power for too much time. China is of course the best example of that.

Would you say the same for Franco and Salazar ?
I think you're right also for them, but I'm not so sure you'd agree with yourself .

In fact, those parties WERE socialist in the way many "liberation struggles" against colonial powers were. First, sincere; then, only nationalist and authoritarian after some years/months/days in power.


As for other Arab countries which can be destabilized,

- Libya and even Algeria are currently too tightly ruled; though Algeria, due to its wide population will be destabilized but not before some years,

- Sudan and Yemen are far too diverse and complex to have a so-called "modern" and "democratic" revolution; already, results in Tunisia and Egypt won't be so clear (please stop see everything in black/white, FF/HP, "democracyyyyyyy" and through western eyes); so, if there are troubles in core Sudan or in Yemen, that would be only a way for some faction to grasp an opportunity (and Al-Jazeera buzz) to take power or ot bargain;

- Morocco hasn't enough people fed up with the regime and it's richer and richer; it's pretty safe;

- Jordan is of course "worrying" in a way, but heavy American presence there, while the country is far more tinier than Egypt and Abdullah is a bit more aware of "risks" may provide a safe ground to save the regime for the moment;

- Syria and Kuwaït may be better candidates for "the next one": Syria hasn't succeeded in its recent reforms and economic situation is bad; what is more, Assad's power is still disputed inside the regime, though he is a bit stronger than after Daddy's death; and Syria hasn't been very successful in foregin matters;
Kuwaït is completely different but it isn't a tiny Gulf state; it has a larger population which seems to be fed up with the regime and all its false changes, its turnarounds, etc.

[Zarn]

the NFL- an socialist party.

I lol'd

[Hash]

The fall of the Jordanian monarchy would also mean the fall of their hot queen, which is why it'd be a tragedy. Who cares about democracy as long as you have a queen that hot?

The Jordanians seem to hold loyalty to their monarch while venting their rage against the government. And besides, maybe the new Republic will make Rania its ceremonial President.

On the surface, imo. The surface is that all Jordanian will have only good things to say for the monarch, but once you get behind the surface and win their trust, they'll be rather critical of the King. That was my experience, anyhow, and that's how I learned that Rania had plastic surgery and that the King is an avid gambler but one who's pretty unlucky at it. And from experience, the Jordanian regime has a very active and influential secret police force.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Was calm so far in Syria, today some people launched a facebook call for a day of protest. Good luck to them, and maybe Iran won't support to 'listen to the aspirations of the people' there.

In Yemen, Saleh decided to convoke Parliament tomorrow, before a new day of protest that would happen Thursday. Which, like 2 Arab leaders before him, after lots of big pledges to appease the protests, would be one more sign of weakness.