PA-PPP: Obama beats everyone
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Author Topic: PA-PPP: Obama beats everyone  (Read 1797 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: January 06, 2011, 01:30:39 PM »

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%

...

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 44%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Rick Santorum ................................................ 40%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 40%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 36%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum?

Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 44%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable........................................................ 29%
Unfavorable .................................................... 53%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 59%

...

PPP surveyed 547 Pennsylvania voters from January 3rd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0106503.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2011, 01:35:09 PM »

Obama vs. Huckabee



Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2011, 01:45:04 PM »

This is what I would expect for Pennsylvania at the moment.

It votes slightly more Democratic than the nation, in which Obama would be about tied with Huckabee and Romney among registered voters.

I´m already looking forward to the NV numbers. I guess Romney does best there in the General and in the Primary.

And then PPP should poll Colorado and Iowa. I want to see a primary (I know they have a caucus) poll there.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2011, 01:55:05 PM »

Factoring in those name recognition numbers, it looks like Huck is leading and Romney is tied.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2011, 01:57:41 PM »

Factoring in those name recognition numbers, it looks like Huck is leading and Romney is tied.

The ones who are undecided about the GOP candidates right now might also fall further into the "unfavorable" column, especially if the GOP primary season drags on ...

So this conclusion might not be right.
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Iosif
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2011, 02:04:17 PM »

Elaine Marshall's pimp!
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albaleman
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2011, 02:36:15 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2011, 04:31:29 PM by albaleman »

That's a pretty mediocre showing for Obama in PA. I thought Obama would be leading by more than that, especially since he has a lead in OH and a solid lead in MI.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2011, 05:28:02 PM »

As a Ron Paul supporter, I can safely say that I'd support Huckabee in a heartbeat if the Doctor didn't run.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2011, 10:37:18 PM »

That's a pretty mediocre showing for Obama in PA. I thought Obama would be leading by more than that, especially since he has a lead in OH and a solid lead in MI.

President Obama, should his approval numbers be where they are a year from now, will need to campaign to win.  My predictive model suggests that an incumbent Governor, Senator, or probably an at-large Representative (this is an adaptation from Nate Silver) gains a vote share of roughly 6% on the average. This applies just the same to pols whose approval is in the 30s as it does for incumbents with approvals in the 60s. Practically all incumbents facing a challenge do some active campaigning, and although there are some whose approval is in the high 40s and still lose, there are few. They can get votes only in their own states in a gubernatorial or senatorial election, so don't expect Debbie Stabenow (D, MI) to be looking for votes in Indiana or Ohio in 2012.
 
Losing with an approval rating in the high forties implies that

(1) a scandal breaks late
(2) the local economy goes very bad, and the politician gets some of the blame
(3) the candidate  runs an incredibly-bad campaign
(4) the opponent is unusually strong as a challenger
(5) the candidate is excessively linked to an unpopular President

Politicians whose approval ratings are in the 20s either don't normally run for re-election
or else get defeated in their party's primaries. Sure, George Allen (R, VA, 2006) barely lost despite having an approval rating of 51% at the start pf the campaign season, but he blundered badly, he was too closely linked to a President going unpopular rapidly, and his opponent was unusually strong for a challenger. 


Start by assuming that the incumbent has previously been elected, so there is little question of whether he knows how to campaign, knows enough of the demographics of the state to go to the right places, and has a campaign apparatus either already set up or has people who can set one up. Well, that didn't apply to Gerald Ford in 1976 -- and it showed. 


Most of the losing incumbents begin with approvals in the low 40s or even the 20s. Most gain some (let us say Santorum in 2006 or Corzine in 2009)  -- but not enough to win.

I figure that the effect is about as strong for an incumbent President in any state, but only if his approval rating is in the forties.   If it is appreciably lower, then he probably has little chance to win the state and isn't going to invest much effort in it. So if the polls generally say that his approval rating is in  the thirties in either Indiana or Missouri, then don't count him to put much effort into the state and don't expect his campaign apparatus to pay for much advertising or a get-out-the-vote campaign for long.   45% of the vote at the end  is as worthless as  15% of the vote.  But what if the early polls tempt him with  41% approval? Campaigning there and having a campaign apparatus might be tempting.   Indiana or Missouri might then be tempting if only as places in which to waste the Other Side's resources if one has money to burn.   

I expect the effect to be muted on the high side as well. If one sees a state going firmly for one, then there might be wiser places in which to invest campaign efforts and advertising. If the President's approval rating in California is  53%, then expect him to make few campaign appearances there.  Maybe national effects might drive the final vote share to 57% or so, but winning 57%-43% in California is no better than winning 53%-47%. So one cuts off the efforts when it looks as if one is about to win or lose by about a 10% margin fairly early and moves resources (including campaign staff and advertising) where it can do some good. One might do efforts to bring a 52-48 margin up to a 56-44 margin, but beyond that  any further gains are the result of national effects.

I'm going to suggest that Barack Obama knew enough to encourage people who worked on his campaign in California to relocate to such a 'dicier' state as Nevada (pardon the bad pun) or Colorado, and his enthusiasts in Texas to relocate to  Colorado, Florida, or Missouri. He was going to win in California and lose Texas, but he understood that winning Colorado, Florida, or Missouri sealed everything. I expect him to repeat his efforts that either  succeeded or came close to succeeding in his first Presidential election in 2012.

Because it isn't wise to pile up votes in a sure-thing state or to try to win over a sure-loss state, don't expect much campaign advertising in Rhode Island  or Wyoming.

   
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2011, 10:18:29 AM »

As a Ron Paul supporter, I can safely say that I'd support Huckabee in a heartbeat if the Doctor didn't run.

Why? They are about as far removed from each other as two Republicans can be these days.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2011, 02:15:20 PM »

As a Ron Paul supporter, I can safely say that I'd support Huckabee in a heartbeat if the Doctor didn't run.

Why? They are about as far removed from each other as two Republicans can be these days.

A question I have myself, but it seems to be common among blue-avatared Paul supporters.  They find Huck to be more "genuine" than the other GOPhers.  To which I say that sure, maybe he's more "genuine," but he's also clearly deranged.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2011, 08:21:06 PM »

As usual LOL at the Palin numbers ~! Much worse then McCain did in the state after spending time and money to win it.
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