UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 12 (Severn Valley)
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Silent Hunter:
Constituency MP Name Party Prediction
Bromsgrove Julie Kirkbride CON Hold
Burton Janet Dean LAB Hold: 'Going for a Burton' was WW2 RAF slang for dying. Dean won't be doing it politically.
Cannock Chase Tony Wright LAB Hold
Chester, City Of Christine Russell LAB Hold
Congleton Ann Winterton CON Hold
Crewe and Nantwich Gwyneth Dunwoody LAB Hold
Eddisbury Stephen O'Brien CON Hold
Ellesmere Port and Neston Andrew Miller LAB Hold
Halton Derek Twigg LAB Hold
Hereford Paul Keetch LIB Hold
Leominster Bill Wiggin CON Hold
Lichfield Michael Fabricant CON Hold
Ludlow Matthew Green LIB Hold
Macclesfield Nicholas Winterton CON Hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly LAB Hold: Don't confuse this with the land of Geordies, even if they are electorally the same.
Redditch Jacqui Smith LAB Hold: She'll hold this- just.
Shrewsbury and Atcham LAB gain from LD: Marsden's defection meant nothing. He wouldn't have had a a chance even if he hadn't retired.
Shropshire North Owen Paterson CON Hold
Stafford David Kidney LAB Hold
Staffordshire Moorlands Charlotte Atkins LAB Hold
Staffordshire South Patrick Cormack CON Hold
Stoke-on-Trent Central Mark Fisher LAB Hold
Stoke-on-Trent North Joan Walley LAB Hold
Stoke-on-Trent South George Stevenson LAB Hold
Stone William Cash CON Hold
Tamworth Brian Jenkins LAB Hold
Tatton George Osborne CON Hold: 1997 was a carefully engineered defeat. No chance of a repeat.
Telford David Wright LAB Hold
Warrington North Helen Jones LAB Hold
Warrington South Helen Southworth LAB Hold
Weaver Vale Mike Hall LAB Hold
Worcester Michael Foster LAB Hold
Worcestershire Mid Peter Luff CON Hold
Worcestershire West Michael Spicer CON Hold
Wrekin, The Peter Bradley CON gain from LAB: The hunting ban vote will give his career one.
Wyre Forest Richard Taylor IND Hold: We'll still have an independent MP after the election.
Filuwaúrdjan:
Burton: Fancy a drink?
Congleton: NSDAP Hold
Hereford: possible upset
Ludlow: Green is a Yellow Tory. He'll probably win again (the Tories are running a crooked businessman businessman with a reputation for being evil with take overs and stuff). Possibility that Labour might run a decent local candidate to screw things up for Green, but it'll probably be a paper candidate again. Possibility that Chris "Racist" Gill might run as the UKIP candidate. Watch this space.
Shrewsbury and Atcham: After the Marsen fiasco, the Tories should have waltzed this one: however their candidate is a joke and they would have lost control of the council if it wasn't for vote splitting this year. Add the fiascos over the new football stadium, floods, corruption... a "sure thing" has turned into a "maybe".
Labour have picked Mike Ion (candidate in North Shropshire last time round) who used to be deputy head of a Catholic schools (smart pick: there's a big Catholic community in Shrewsbury).
The LibDems have picked Marsden's old constitunecy agent, Richard Burt.
Telford: I live here; it's a safe seat regardless (New Town+Old Pit villages) but Wright is a good M.P and has probably built up a little personal vote.
There has been some political change here recently: the controversial leader of Telford & Wrekin Borough Council was deposed by the Labour Group a few days ago. Won't have any effect on the outcome.
Wrekin: Actually a suburban seat (there's a small rural fringe though) and intended to be a Tory seat. Bradley's win shocked me (albeit pleasantly) in '97, and as he's a solid hard-working constituency M.P he might be able to hang on again.
Parking charges (instituted by the now ex-leader of Telford & Wrekin BC) are an issue (Bradley actually opposed them).
Wyre Forest: "The Doctor" will sweep Kiddy again... and that's enough for him to win IMO
English:
Agree apart from....
The Wrekin- CON Gain
Shrewsbury- CON Gain
Redditch- CON Gain
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