UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 9 (Wales)
Silent Hunter:
Now we're getting interesting. Will Plaid Cymru do well here?
Constituency MP Name Party Prediction
Aberavon Hywel Francis LAB Hold
Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami LAB Hold
Blaenau Gwent Llew Smith LAB Hold
Brecon and Radnorshire Roger Williams LIB Hold
Bridgend Win Griffiths LAB Hold
Caernarfon Hywel Williams PC Hold
Caerphilly Wayne David LAB Hold
Cardiff Central Jon Owen Jones LIB Gain from LAB: 659 votes is too small to hold it.
Cardiff North Julie Morgan LAB Hold
Cardiff South and Penarth Alun Michael LAB Hold: He's Rural Affairs Minister, but this is a city. Callaghan's old seat will stay red.
Cardiff West Kevin Brennan LAB Hold
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Adam Price PC Hold
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Nick Ainger LAB Hold
Ceredigion Simon Thomas PC Hold
Clwyd South Martyn Jones LAB Hold
Clwyd West Gareth Thomas CON gain from LAB: The majority's just too small and he voted for the hunting ban. Even Electoral Calculus gives him a lead of only 0.01%.
Conwy Betty Williams LAB Hold
Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd LAB Hold
Delyn David Hanson LAB Hold
Gower Martin Caton LAB Hold
Islwyn Don Touhig LAB Hold
Llanelli LAB Hold
Meirionnydd Nant Conwy Elfyn Llwyd PC Hold
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dai Havard LAB Hold
Monmouth Huw Edwards CON Gain from LAB: Edwards won by less than 1,000 votes. Voting for the hunting ban will finish him off.
Montgomeryshire Lembit Opik LIB Hold: He'll be around for a while yet.
Neath Peter Hain LAB Hold: The Lord Privy Seal is as safe as anything.
Newport East Alan Howarth LAB Hold
Newport West Paul Flynn LAB Hold
Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies LAB Hold- This place had one of the few by-elections of this Parliament (Dec 2001 due to Ray Powell's death), where PC 2nd placed. PC will do the same this time, but he's safe.
Pontypridd Kim Howells LAB Hold
Preseli Pembrokeshire LAB Hold
Rhondda Chris Bryant LAB Hold: Wasn't this the guy who took a picture of himself in his underwear? It won't be enough to swing it unless there's another Tatton.
Swansea East LAB Hold
Swansea West Alan Williams LAB Hold
Torfaen Paul Murphy LAB Hold
Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane LAB Hold
Vale of Glamorgan John Smith LAB Hold
Wrexham Ian Lucas LAB Hold
Ynys Mon Albert Owen PC Gain from LAB: Tories will 3rd place here, LDs end up 4th.
Peter:
I agree for the most part here, though I would say that Clwyd West will move into the Conservative column - a majority of a little over 1,000 won't protect the incumbent against the national drop of support for Labour.
Also to note: For Carmarthen East you use NAT, but for the other PC seats, you use PC.
Chris Bryant will be fine - its not like he's accused of anything grossly immoral, unlike Neil Hamilton. And even if he was, its Rhondda for crying out loud.
Also, Donald Anderson is standing down at the next election.
Filuwaúrdjan:
Brecon and Radnor: A seriously weird seat... Rador and most of Brecon swings between the Liberals and the Tories, but the extreme SW of the seat is fanatically Labour. I'll only predict this one when I find out who's running.
Caernarfon: potential upset here. Not likely, but I'd love to see it...
Cardiff Central: Traditionally Tory, which in places like this translates into LibDemness. Easy LibDem win.
Cardiff South and Penarth: Not really a City seat... more a blue collar 'burb seat. Michael is safe.
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Historically a Lab/Nat swinger (the seat's a mix of ultra-Nat East Camarthen, and solidly Labour SE Camarthen) Plaid are doing badly at the moment... the odious Adam Price might go down.
Ceredigion: The Liberals would kill to regain their old fiefdom... good turnouts in Aber and in rural areas could see it happen. The Nats need a good turnout in Cardigan and along the coast to hang on. Labour freakishly won this (twice! And with less than 40% both times!) in the '60's and '70's, but unless voting is restricted to Lampeter and the council estastes outside Aber, no chance of that fluke being repeated.
Clwyd West: How Labour won this is beyond me... The Tories won in the '66 sweep!!! Hunting Ban =Normal Service to be resumed
Llanelli: Small chance of a Nat upset (IIRC Davies is retiring) but I don't see it right now.
Monmouth: Used to be a swinger: Cwmbran was cut out for '83 and it became a safe Tory seat. In theory. For 2005 see Clwyd West.
Pontypridd: The next P.M (if only...) will win easily.
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Lawrence is retiring. Possible Tory upset. Doubt it.
Rhondda: Yes, the Rhondda is socially conservative and Bryant is gay, but it didn't hurt him in 2001 (despite a disgusting homophobic campaign by the Nat candidate) and the mismanagement of the local council by the Nats resulted in a Labour landslide earlier this year (only a handful of Nats survived). Bryant is also a good constituency M.P
Swansea East: Blue collar 'burbs. Anderson is retiring, but it's a Labour stronghold.
Wrexham: It'll be amusing to see "Forward Wales" get a drubbing here... not worth watching for a lot else...
Ynys Mon: Anglesey might change parties a lot, but I don't think a sitting M.P has lost here for a long time.
English:
Agreed apart from Ceredigion, certain LD Gain.
Cardiff Central is a certain LD Gain.
Similarly Clwyd West and Monmouth are certain CON Gains.
The Tories might gain Brecon and Radnor, watch for that one.
The Man From G.O.P.:
hey there i am very interested in the plaid cymru party but i dont know if it leans tory or labour is there a website for them? im wondering either way im happy to see welsh nationals getting their act together and not being part of the 2 big parties. I saw an election map from the preivious years and saw they only held the more northern counties and that the southern ones went heavy labour wich as my family is from port talbot I was very dissapointed in this but i babble and im just wondring if you had any information on them
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