UK local by-elections 2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those two wards don't have much in common, do they?

[afleitch]

Good result for us in Edinburgh; bodes well for next May.

[MaxQue]

Those two wards don't have much in common, do they?

Well, they are both heavily urban.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Two by-elections left in August on the 25th.

SALTCOATS AND STEVENSTON, North Ayrshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  Two of the 'three towns' along with the Arran ferry port of Ardrossan, Saltcoats started off as a salt-panning town which became a seaside resort, while Stevenston is a chemicals town which was a major base for Nobel Industries.  Both towns are served by stations on the electrified branch from Kilwinning to Largs and are about 30 miles from Glasgow Central.  The 2007 first preferences were Lab 34.8 SNP 32.0 Ind 25.6 C 7.6, with Labour winning 2 seats, the SNP 1 and an independent 1.  In 2003 all the predecessor FPTP wards were Labour except for Stevenston South which went narrowly SNP.  Saltcoats is in the Cunninghame North Scottish Parliament constituency while Stevenston is in Cunninghame South, both SNP-held, while the ward is part of the Labour-held Ayrshire North and Arran Westminster constituency.  Candidates for the by-election are Lab/SNP/C/LD/Socialist Labour/Pensioners/Ind.

SHIREBROOK SOUTH WEST, Bolsover, Derbyshire; caused by the death of an Independent councillor.  Shirebrook is a town on the eastern edge of Nottinghamshire, about five miles north of Mansfield and linked to it by the Nottingham-Worksop "Robin Hood" railway line.  Today it's the headquarters and site for the main warehouse of Sports Direct, the sportswear company owned by Newcastle United owner Mike Ashley, but its political preferences are determined by its history as a coal-mining town; Shirebrook Colliery was begun in the 1890s and finally closed in 1993.  Reflecting this, in 2003 Shirebrook's five single-member wards returned a full slate of unopposed Labour councillors.  In 2007 democracy broke out, with two wards having contested elections and Labour losing them both: North West was gained by the East Midlands' only ever Respect councillor, and this ward elected an Independent candidate, Alan Wareing, by a majority of one vote (Ind 376 Lab 375).  Wareing was re-elected in May much more comfortably (Ind 52.1 Lab 32.2 BNP 9.6 C 6.1).  With Wareing no longer with us a Labour regain looks the most likely outcome.  Candidates for the by-election are Lab/BNP/C/Grn; the BNP performed very well in the Shirebrook and Pleasley county division in 2009, polling 27.2% and finishing second, but their star has rather sunk since then.

[ObserverIE]

Bolsover, Shirebrook South West

Lab 47.8 (+15.6)
Green 24.6 (+24.6)
Con 17.2 (+11.1)
BNP 10.3 (+0.7)

(via Andrea at Vote2007)

North Ayrshire, Saltcoats and Stevenston

Lab 48.7 (+13.9)
SNP 33.2 (+1.2)
Con 7.2 (-0.4)
Pensioners 5.4 (+5.4)
Ind 2.9 (-22.7)
Lib Dem 1.4 (+1.4)
Soc Lab 1.1 (+1.1)

Lab	1914	1927	1936	1963	2039
SNP	1306	1311	1326	1363	1425
Con	284	286	297	308	331
Pensioners	211	217	222	240
Ind	114	117	123
Lib Dem	56	57
Soc Lab	43

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusing set of results. The Greenies have another councillor nearby so it's not that surprising that they picked up some of the energy from the independent vote in Shirebrook.

[afleitch]

Saltcoats and Stevenston is a good result for Labour even taking into account it deing diluted by 2 or 3 candidates next year. No Ronnie McNicol standing (a sitting independent) and most of his support went to Labour. Despite this the SNP-IND-LAB-LAB result is likely to be repeated next year which is good for Labour who otherwise would be fighting to retain one of it's seats from the SNP.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

One by-election on 1st September:

KESWICK, Allerdale, Cumbria; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor due to ill-health.  Keswick (the W is silent) is a market town at the centre of the Lake District National Park, which was once a centre for pencil manufacturing (the world's first graphite pencils were made here) and now, this being the Lakes, gets most of its money from tourism.  The ward also includes the rural Vale of St John to the east, which climbs between Wainwright's Central and Eastern Fells past the lake of Thirlmere (source of Manchester's water) to the pass of Dunmail Raise.  Politically, this area is definitely not typical of Allerdale district, whose tone is set by the working-class and Labour-voting town of Workington, 21 miles to the west.  Labour currently hold half the seats on the council and will have overall control if they win the by-election.  Allerdale district has a lot of unopposed elections, and the last contested election in this ward was all the way back in 2003, at which the three main parties each won one seat, the Lib Dem candidate topping the poll.  The Tory and Labour winners from that by-election are still there, while the Lib Dem councillor stood down in 2007 (she is now the county councillor for the area) and was replaced by a new Lib Dem councillor who was re-elected in 2011 as an independent.  Interestingly the Tories are not contesting the by-election; the candidates nominated are Lib Dem, Labour and Green Party.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

One by-election on 1st September:

KESWICK, Allerdale, Cumbria; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor due to ill-health.  Keswick (the W is silent) is a market town at the centre of the Lake District National Park, which was once a centre for pencil manufacturing (the world's first graphite pencils were made here) and now, this being the Lakes, gets most of its money from tourism.  The ward also includes the rural Vale of St John to the east, which climbs between Wainwright's Central and Eastern Fells past the lake of Thirlmere (source of Manchester's water) to the pass of Dunmail Raise.  Politically, this area is definitely not typical of Allerdale district, whose tone is set by the working-class and Labour-voting town of Workington, 21 miles to the west.  Labour currently hold half the seats on the council and will have overall control if they win the by-election.  Allerdale district has a lot of unopposed elections, and the last contested election in this ward was all the way back in 2003, at which the three main parties each won one seat, the Lib Dem candidate topping the poll.  The Tory and Labour winners from that by-election are still there, while the Lib Dem councillor stood down in 2007 (she is now the county councillor for the area) and was replaced by a new Lib Dem councillor who was re-elected in 2011 as an independent.  Interestingly the Tories are not contesting the by-election; the candidates nominated are Lib Dem, Labour and Green Party.

Addendum and correction: it turns that the Lib Dem county councillor resigned earlier this year and there was a by-election on 5 May for the rather larger county council seat of Keswick and Derwent.  This was a Conservative gain: C 32.3 Ind 25.4 LD 24.2 Lab 18.1.

[ObserverIE]

Allerdale, Keswick

Lib Dem 59.7
Lab 35.3
Green 5.0

(via Vote2007)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Three by-elections on 8th September:

BACKWELL, North Somerset; caused by the death of an Independent councillor.  This ward covers the large village of Backwell, eight miles south-west of Bristol on the road to Weston-super-Mare, together with the neighbouring villages of Brockley, Flax Bourton and Barrow Gurney.  It is served by Nailsea and Backwell railway station on the Great Western Main Line, with direct trains to Bristol Temple Meads and in peak hours to London Paddington (126 miles away), which makes this a very desirable area for commuters to Bristol and even London (if you fancy spending more than four hours a day on a train).  Politically this was a safe Conservative ward until 2007, when two Independents gained the ward after campaigning on a planning issue.  The two Independents were re-elected in May with only a single Conservative candidate as opposition; shares of the vote were Ind 67.3 C 32.7.  Candidates for the by-election are Ind/C/Lab/LD.

SOUTHMEAD, Bristol; caused by the resignation (due to ill-health) of a Lib Dem councillor.  This ward is on the northern edge of the city next to the town of Filton and its airport.  It started off life as a 1930s council estate to house people cleared from slums in the city centre, and is still an extremely deprived area, particularly when compared to the neighbouring middle-class ward of Westbury-on-Trym.  Politically it's a rather volatile ward; safe Labour on the basis on the 2006 and 2010 results (the 2010 shares were Lab 40.5 LD 27.1 C 20.7 BNP 6.5 Grn 2.6 English Democrats 2.5) but the Lib Dems gained the ward from Labour in 2009 with a majority of 20 (LD 32.1 Lab 31.4 C 18.9 English Democrats 11.4 Grn 6.2).  Candidates are LD/Lab/C/Grn/English Democrats.

STOCK, Essex County Council; caused by the disqualification of Conservative councillor Lord Hanningfield who is now serving a prison sentence for fiddling his House of Lords expenses.  This ward covers a large rural area to the south of Chelmsford, including the villages of Stock, Margaretting, the Hanningfields and Bicknacre and the Wickford suburb of Runwell.  There is one railway station in the far south of the division, at Battlesbridge on the Crouch Valley Line, 32 miles from Liverpool Street.  This is a very right-wing part of England, and that together with the large size of Essex county divisions allowed Hanningfield to poll almost 6000 votes on general election day in 2005, when he was leader of the County Council; he was re-elected in 2009 with 65.7% of the vote, the opposition being split LD 12.5 Grn 8.7 BNP 7.8 Lab 5.2.  With Hanningfield's fall from grace I would imagine that majority would be eroded somewhat.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Grn/Lab/UKIP.

In other news, the winner of the Poulton North by-election in Warrington at the end of July has sadly died.

[ObserverIE]

North Somerset, Backwell

Ind 61.7 (-5.6)
Con 23.7 (-9.0)
Lab 9.4 (+9.4)
Lib Dem 5.2 (+5.2)

Bristol, Southmead

Lab 45.5 (+5.0)
Con 31.4 (+10.7)
Lib Dem 15.0 (-12.1)
Green 4.9 (+2.3)
Eng Dem 3.2 (+0.7)

(via Britain Votes)

Essex, Stock

Con 59.3 (-6.4)
UKIP 24.0 (+24.0)
Lab 9.0 (+3.8.)
Lib Dem 5.2 (-7.3)
Green 2.6 (-6.1)

(via Vote 2007)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it was built in the thirties, would it actually have been built directly for slum clearance? Most of the second generation (and the much smaller first generation; Addison Act houses) were built for skilled (as the term was understood then; often means something different now) workers and their families. The general idea was that the slum dwellers would then move into the houses that the skilled workers had left as they moved out to the new estates. Didn't work out like that, for obvious reasons.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

If it was built in the thirties, would it actually have been built directly for slum clearance? Most of the second generation (and the much smaller first generation; Addison Act houses) were built for skilled (as the term was understood then; often means something different now) workers and their families. The general idea was that the slum dwellers would then move into the houses that the skilled workers had left as they moved out to the new estates. Didn't work out like that, for obvious reasons.

Well, I was basically cribbing from the Wikipedia entry for Southmead, which says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Seven by-elections on 13th September, for eight seats:

BRAMSHOTT AND LIPHOOK, East Hampshire and HEADLEY, Hampshire County Council; a rare double by-election for the district council and a county council by-election caused by the resignation of two husband-and-wife Conservative district councillors; the husband (the county councillor) has since died.  Despite the order of the names Liphook is the major part of the district ward; it's a large village which started as a coaching stop on the London-Portsmouth stagecoach route, and is now bypassed by the A3; for London commuters Liphook station is on the Portsmouth Direct line, 47 miles from Waterloo and 28 miles from Portsmouth Harbour.  The Headley county division includes the whole of this ward and extends to the north to take in the Grayshott and Headley wards; Headley is just another rural village as far as I can tell while Grayshott (birthplace of the actor Colin Firth) is contiguous with the Surrey village of Hindhead, now known for its newly-built tunnel on the A3.  During the Second World War a large number of Canadian troops were stationed all over the division.  Politically, this a very Tory part of England although the Lib Dems came reasonably close in the district ward in 2007; shares of the vote were C 63.7 LD 31.1 Lab 5.2 in the county division in 2009 and C 50.6 LD 32.3 Lab 17.1 in the district ward in May.  Both polls are contested by the three main parties and the Greens, although the Greens are only standing one candidate for the district by-election; there is also an outfit called the Justice and Anti-Corruption Party standing for the county by-election.

GRAISELEY, Wolverhampton; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  From a very Tory area to a very Labour area; this is inner-city Wolverhampton to the west and south-west of the city centre, with all the deprivation that entails.  Even at Labour's nadir in 2008, when they lost control of Wolverhampton, this was a safe ward and it's a lot safer now for the party; the result in May was Lab 64.5 C 16.5 Ind 13.6 LD 5.4.  Candidates are the three main parties plus UKIP.

HIGHGATE, Camden, North London; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  Highgate has a reputation as one of London's most expensive and desirable suburbs, although the political effect of this is slightly diluted as the Camden/Haringey boundary runs right through the middle of it.  Camden's Highgate ward runs south through the more socially mixed Dartmouth Park area as far as Gospel Oak station on the North London and Gospel Oak-Barking Lines; the ward includes Parliament Hill, known for its great views of central London; much of Hampstead Heath; and Highgate Cemetery, final resting place of Karl Marx.  The politics of this area certainly isn't Marxist: this ward is a very stong area for the Green Party, which suggests a very large concentration of so-called Guardianistas living here; it elected three Labour councillors in 2002 with the Conservatives and Greens not far behind (the lead Green candidate was future Mayoral candidate Sian Berry); the Labour councillors lost in 2006 to two Greens and one Conservative; the Conservative councillor resigned in 2008 and the Greens won the by-election; in 2010 Labour regained two seats from the Greens.  Shares of the vote in 2010 were Grn 30.5 Lab 29.0 LD 20.2 C 20.2, which almost suggests a four-way marginal.  The same four parties are contesting the by-election.

HIGHLAND, Perth and Kinross; caused by the resignation of an SNP councillor who is emigrating to Australia.  This ward is centred on the town of Pitlochry, 28 miles north of Perth on the Highland Line and A9 to Inverness, which is a tourist resort popular as a base for pensioners' coach holidays.  At this time of year the tourist interest is centred on the Pitlochry Highland Games (which take place today) and the Festival Theatre (which uniquely puts on six different plays at once, one for each night of the week), while year-round employment is provided by the Tummel hydroelectric power scheme, with nine power stations of which Pitlochry is the lowest.  Eight of those power stations are within this ward, which is one of the largest wards in the UK with an area of 900 square miles; for comparison that is bigger than Herefordshire and only slightly smaller than Luxembourg.  The only other population centres of note in the ward are Aberfeldy and Blair Atholl; to the north is a large chunk of the Cairngorms National Park (including Glen Tilt, known to pilots as "Star Wars Valley"), the A9 and Highland Line run north-west through Killiecrankie, Blair Atholl and Glen Garry to the Pass of Drumochter, while to the west Strath Tummel leads up to Rannoch Moor with its comically isolated railway station on the West Highland Line.  Perthshire is a strong SNP area and this is one of the SNP's strongest wards; first preferences in 2007 were SNP 58.4 C 25.6 LD 13.5 Ind 2.5, with the SNP winning two seats and the Conservatives one; interestingly all three winning candidates had a quota of first preferences so there was no need to do any transfers.  Candidates for the by-election are SNP/C/LD and two Independents.

PHOENIX, Gedling, Nottinghamshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor who is emigrating.  Part of the eastern Nottingham suburb of Carlton, this ward is on the edge of the Nottingham built-up area and covers a fairly socially mixed area.  Politically it's a Labour/Lib Dem marginal, Labour gaining both seats from the Lib Dems in May by majorities of 62 and 4 votes; shares of the vote in May were Lab 52.2 LD 47.8.  Candidates are the three main parties plus UKIP, who appear to be working the area hard (for them).

SURBITON HILL, Kingston upon Thames, South London; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor whose new employer (Friends of the Earth) does not allow him to hold a council seat.  Surbiton is an icon of suburbia in British TV such as The Good Life, thanks to its location on the South Western Main Line; Surbiton station is twelve miles from Waterloo.  This ward runs south from the station through some very middle-class areas along the Upper Brighton Road and Hook Road.  In 2010 the Lib Dems gained the ward from the Conservatives, who looked fairly safe on the basis of the 2006 results; shares of the vote in 2010 were LD 42.3 C 36.5 Lab 11.2 Grn 7.9 Christian Peoples Alliance 2.1.  Those five parties are standing in the by-election together with an Independent.

[ObserverIE]

Wolverhampton, Graiseley

Lab 64.6 (+0.1)
Con 25.0 (+8.5)
Lib Dem 7.5 (+2.1)
UKIP 2.9 (+2.9)

(The Conservative candidate stood as an Independent in May 2011, taking 13.6%.)

Gedling, Phoenix

Lib Dem 48.7 (+0.9)
Lab 39.1 (-13.1)
Con 8.6 (+8.6)
UKIP 3.7 (+3.7)

Camden, Highgate

Lab 41.6 (+12.6)
Green 33.5 (+3.0)
Con 21.0 (+0.8.)
Lib Dem 3.9 (-16.3)

Kingston-upon-Thames, Surbiton Hill

Lib Dem 39.7 (-2.6)
Con 35.6 (-0.9)
Lab 13.9 (+2.7)
CPA 6.8 (+4.7)
Green 3.2 (-4.7)
Ind 0.8 (+0.8.)

(via Britain Votes)

East Hampshire, Bramshott and Liphook

Con 53.7 (+3.1) (796, 743)
Lib Dem 27.0 (-5.3) (404, 371)
Lab 10.5 (-6.6) (183, 117)
Green 8.8 (+8.8.) (126)

Hampshire, Headley

Con 64.6 (+0.9)
Lib Dem 11.8 (-19.3)
Lab 10.5 (+5.3)
Green 7.2 (+7.2)
Justice 5.9 (+5.9)

Perth and Kinross, Highland (changes from 2008 by-election in italics)

SNP 54.4 (-4.0) (-5.5)
Con 22.4 (-3.2) (-7.4)
Lib Dem 12.1 (-1.4) (+4.8.)
Ind Leszke 10.1 (+10.1) (+10.1)
Ind Rennie 1.0 (+1.0) (+1.0)

Obvious signs of revival there for the Scottish Lib Dems...

(via Vote 2007)

[minionofmidas]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

[ObserverIE]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

The Gedling Lib Dem candidate was a long-time councillor who'd lost by 4 votes in May. The Highgate vote certainly doesn't look promising for Lynne Featherstone or Sarah Teather next time round.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

The Gedling Lib Dem candidate was a long-time councillor who'd lost by 4 votes in May. The Highgate vote certainly doesn't look promising for Lynne Featherstone or Sarah Teather next time round.

Why should it look unpromising?  This Highgate ward isn't in either of their seats.

[MaxQue]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

The Gedling Lib Dem candidate was a long-time councillor who'd lost by 4 votes in May. The Highgate vote certainly doesn't look promising for Lynne Featherstone or Sarah Teather next time round.

Why should it look unpromising?  This Highgate ward isn't in either of their seats.

Because they lost 80% of their vote?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

The Gedling Lib Dem candidate was a long-time councillor who'd lost by 4 votes in May. The Highgate vote certainly doesn't look promising for Lynne Featherstone or Sarah Teather next time round.

Why should it look unpromising?  This Highgate ward isn't in either of their seats.

Because they lost 80% of their vote?

(looks again at result)
Point taken.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Just one by-election on 22nd September.

STAITHE, Fenland, Cambridgeshire; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor in a car crash.  Welcome to Wisbech, self-styled Capital of the Fens.  Located on the Cambridgeshire/Norfolk border, the town became a wealthy port in the 17th century, handling agricultural produce from the newly drained Fens; the River Nene here is still navigable.  Many of the buildings in the town centre are Georgian, leading to some film and TV costume dramas being filmed here, while the town's most famous son is the slavery abolitionist Thomas Clarkson, who has a memorial and a ward named after him in the town.  Staithe ward, one of seven wards covering Wisbech, is located on the eastern edge of the town before it merges seamlessly into the suburb of Walsoken, which is over the county boundary in Norfolk.  Fenland distict is an extremely Tory part of England, with the Tories having a majority in 2003 and 2007 before a single vote was cast through unopposed returns and undernomination by opposition candidates; Staithe was Conservative unopposed in both those years.  In May the opposition made an effort to actually contest the election, and Labour and UKIP candidates were nominated for the ward; the result was C 55.1 Lab 28.8 UKIP 16.1.  The ward forms a quarter of the Wisbech South county division which at the last county council election in 2009 voted C 46.4 UKIP 26.5 Lab 10.6 LD 9.5 Libertarian 7.0.  Candidates for the by-election are C, Lab, UKIP, Lib Dem and an Independent.

[ObserverIE]

Fenland, Swaithe

Con 42.0 (-13.1)
Lab 30.6 (+1.8.)
Lib Dem 16.6 (+16.6)
UKIP 7.2 (-8.9)
Ind 3.7 (+3.7)

(via BritainVotes)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Five local by-elections on 29th September, for three of which Al is probably better qualified to comment.

BICESTER NORTH, Cherwell, Oxon; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Probably best known to the rest of the world as the home of the Bicester Village Shopping Centre, the UK's leading designer outlet centre which is insanely popular with Japanese tourists, Bicester (pronounced BISter) is a very fast-growing market town located twelve miles north-east of Oxford.  Part of its fast growth is due to its good transport links, some of which date back to Roman times - the town is just off the M40 London-Birmingham motorway and is served by two railway lines; Bicester North station (which despite the name is not in this ward) is on the Chiltern line, 55 miles from London Marylebone, while Bicester Town station is on a branch line twelve miles from Oxford.  The franchise-holder, Chiltern Railways, is currently working on connecting the two lines so it can serve Oxford.  There are some run-down parts of the town, but not this ward, with all four of the census areas in it ranking in the 20% least deprived in England.  Obviously, this results in a safe Conservative ward, with the shares of the vote in May being C 58.9 Lab 25.1 LD 16.0.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties.

BISHOP'S CASTLE, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of Shropshire's tiny market towns, and until 1974 the smallest borough in England, the town is located twenty miles north-west of Ludlow, twenty miles south-west of Shrewsbury and just two miles from the Welsh border.  The ward itself includes eleven other tiny parishes in the same general area.  At the first unitary Shropshire Council election in 2009 the shares of the vote here were LD 47.7 C 40.5 Grn 11.8, the Lib Dem councillor having previously been a long-serving district councillor on the now-abolished South Shropshire district council.  Candidates for the by-election are the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Greens and Labour.  

DIFFWYS & MAENOFFEREN, Gwynedd; caused by the resignation of a Llais Gwynedd councillor.  At the other end of the Ffestiniog Railway (see Penrhyndeudraeth below) is the slate-quarrying town of Blaenau Ffestiniog, of which this ward covers the town centre and eastern end.  To be honest, the recent politics is probably more interesting; Plaid unopposed in 2004, the ward was gained by the anti-Plaid movement Llais Gwynedd in 2008 with vote shares LlG 49.3 PC 41.1 Lab 9.5; the Llais councillor was then forced to quit the council last year after being convicted of attempting to kill his wife.  Llais held the by-election on 15 July 2010 by just four votes (LlG 50.5 PC 49.5); this by-election has been caused by the resignation of the councillor elected in that by-election.  Plaid gained Blaenau's other ward in a by-election shortly after the previous Diffwys by-election.  The by-election is again a straight fight between Llais and Plaid.

NASCOT, Watford, Hertfordshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor who has a new job in Ireland.  This ward runs north-west from the town centre between the Hempstead Road and the West Coast Main Line, with its main spine being the Nascot Wood Road, highly sought after and home to many footballers and other high-earners (the south end of the ward is within walking distance of Watford Junction mainline railway station).  Normally this would create a safe Conservative ward, but Watford Council went Lib Dem at local elections in a big way around 2000, with the Lib Dem elected mayor now on her third term; the yellow Focus has turned this ward into a Lib Dem/Tory marginal, with the score in the five elections since 2006 being Lib Dem 4 Conservative 1 (in 2008).  The result in May was LD 45.6 C 36.3 Lab 11.7 Grn 6.4, which was actually the biggest Lib Dem majority in recent years.  Candidates for the by-election are the same four parties.

PENRHYNDEUDRAETH, Gwynedd; caused by the resignation of a Plaid Cymru councillor who stole £53,000 from the local post office while he was sub-postmaster.  Amusingly, he was the cabinet member for economy and community; even more amusingly, he's now a prisoner.  Amusingly, because this ward includes the Hotel Portmeirion, Sir Clough Williams-Ellis' fantasy Italianate village which was the setting for the 1960s TV series The Prisoner, and now attracts large numbers of tourists.  However, the main industry in the town was explosives, with an ICI factory here until 1997, and there is still quarrying in the area.  The ward includes the village of Minffordd to the south-west and runs north-east into part of the Snowdonia National Park.  Transport connections are comparatively good, with two railway stations on the Cambrian Coast Line which is part of the mainline network (but more than 100 miles from Shrewsbury where the line connects to the rest of the network), and three stations on the narrow-gauge Ffestiniog Railway; however, that's only four stations in total as Minffordd station is shared by both companies.  As usual in rural Wales, previous results are not much of a guide to what might happen in the by-election; the 2008 result was PC 58.5 Llais Gwynedd 41.5.  Candidates for the by-election are Plaid, Llais Gwynedd and Annibynnol.

[minionofmidas]

BISHOP'S CASTLE, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of Shropshire's tiny market towns, and until 1974 the smallest borough in England,

False. http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/relationships.jsp?u_id=10153700&c_id=10001043

(But I would have mispronounced Bisster. I'd have guessed at "Beester".)