US House Redistricting: Georgia

[lowtech redneck]

Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

I don't think I would take the description that far (liberal white Southerners still typically identify with Southern culture, as do most Southern blacks). 

But yeah, Decauter whites are pretty 'liberal' overall; its commonly referred to by local detractors (such as myself) as 'The People's Republic of Decauter'.  To give people an idea, they actually mandate a specific (and inferior) brand of garbage bag be used (presumably for environmental reasons), or else they won't pick it up.

[lowtech redneck]

Done very easily. I kept Waycross in the district to minimize county splits and because it looked uglier without it. The district's 54.9% McCain, 44.4% Obama. Cook PVI: R+7.

What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included?  Kingston would probably prefer a district with a higher probability of remaing safe in 10 years in the event that Savannah takes off economically and attracts more out-of-state migrants, so I was wondering whether the rural counties further inland would be a better fit (assuming the Republicans can make up the difference elsewhere to take down Barrow).

Thanks, btw; I just got into amateur redistricting (I still have a lot more to learn, not to mention precint-level data to acquire), and your maps have been very helpful.

[lowtech redneck]

And yeah, Kingston would definitely be safer with more Republican counties like Wayne, Brantley, Pierce, etc., but he's insisted on keeping Moody AFB in his district, which is in the northeast corner of Lowndes. I'm assuming he's eyeing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as his next step towards Chairman of Appropriations, which he wants really badly.

 If you haven't discovered it yet, Dave's redistricting app is the perfect tool to use. It has precinct-level Census 2010 data for every state, and precinct-level election data for about half the states.

Thanks!  And yeah, I didn't realize where Moody AFB was (I kinda assumed it was near Hunter Army Airfield); it seems that Kingston's ambitions might be putting the long-term electoral security of his district at risk. 

[lowtech redneck]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

[lowtech redneck]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

I try to keep the deviations below 200. That can be quite difficult depending on the area, but it's usually possible. Personally, I wouldn't accept a deviation above 500 unless you're doing a state like Arkansas or West Virginia where county splits are prohibited.

Ouch.  But wouldn't a percentage-based standard make more sense?  A 200-500 deviation would be more significant in some states than in others.  Basically, I'm wondering at what approximate percentage point it would be assumed on this forum that the final shape and composition of a CD would become noticably different after neighborhood by neighborhood trade-offs at the sub-precint level occur?  Would less than a percentage point in deviation-and less than half a percentage of surplus or deficit-be generally considered insufficient to that goal?

[lowtech redneck]

Also, everyone, as an aside, note that Georgia law limits splitting precincts between districts unless it's absolutely necessary for population equality- I only know of four precinct splits in the current map (one each in Lowndes, Newton, Henry, and Baldwin Counties).

Ouch again.  Well, back to the old drawing board...

I think I'll follow JohnnyLongtorso's advice in general, though; anything more would probably be too frustrating for me right now.

[lowtech redneck]

They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into.

Not enough to make a partisan difference within the decade....but you're probably right about the reasons.

(On a side note, I wonder why the black middle-class seems to be skipping northern Dekalb in favor of other areas?)

The Republicans seem to have done something similar (i.e. anticipating black migration) with the Five Forks Trickum area in Gwinnet, at the cost of keeping a few precints in the seventh district that favor Democrats now instead of in some hypothetical future.  They also incorporated several Democratic precints in Dekalb into the sixth district...I can't fathom their reasoning.

[lowtech redneck]

Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not?

The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796.

I was thinking more about the areas between Dunwoody and south Dekalb, like Doraville and Tucker-places that have seen substantial hispanic growth but relatively lackluster black growth.  I guess it could just be a social snowballing effect ("hey, this family member/friend of mine, who happens to be my own ethnicity, just moved to this place and says that its great!  Let's move there and say the same thing to other family/friends who are coincidentally the same ethnicity as us!).

[lowtech redneck]

Finally got around to looking up the amended map. Here's a link for anyone that's curious.

Kingston gets Moody AFB after all, which causes the 1st, 8th, and 12th districts to each rotate a little bit clockwise. The 11th takes in a bit more of Fulton, making the 6th slightly safer. The 3rd gets a bit more of Fayette, at the request of a few state legislators in the area.

Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not?

The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796.

I was thinking more about the areas between Dunwoody and south Dekalb, like Doraville and Tucker-places that have seen substantial hispanic growth but relatively lackluster black growth.  I guess it could just be a social snowballing effect ("hey, this family member/friend of mine, who happens to be my own ethnicity, just moved to this place and says that its great!  Let's move there and say the same thing to other family/friends who are coincidentally the same ethnicity as us!).

That's definitely true for Hispanics, with the language barrier playing a huge role in it.

To give you an overly simplistic answer, blacks aren't moving to Doraville/Tucker/etc. because when someone's moving out into the suburbs it's because of upward social mobility, so they wouldn't be moving into an area that's poorer than the area they left.

I'm not so sure that applies to Tucker (which is right next door to me), in relation to nearby areas in south Dekalb: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/snapshots/PL1377652.html

The job growth percentage might explain it, though (ouch!); now I'm wondering why any hispanics want to move here....