US House Redistricting: Georgia

[dpmapper]

First draft of Georgia. 

Start in the southwest: GA-02 in green, Sanford Bishop.  I didn't want to mess with this one too much, seeing as it might trigger a VRA case.  This district lost its parts of Columbus, gained Valdosta and most of Macon.  It was 48% black, now it's 47% black; I haven't run the numbers on it but it should be a shade more GOP-friendly than it was before.  Bishop will have to stay on his toes, given his close call this year. 

The district that picked up Columbus is GA-03, Lynn Westmoreland.  It's still at 59.1-40.2 McCain, and that's without accounting for its part of Floyd county south of Rome. 

Moving east, GA-08 in yellow for Austin Scott.  Losing Macon means it goes from 56-43% McCain to 62.4-37.9.

GA-01 (blue) for Jack Kingston: lost Valdosta, gained more of Savannah.  In exchange GA-12 (orange) for John Barrow gained counties north of Augusta (and lost some majority black counties in the process).  If we assume Savannah/Chatham County votes split proportionally between Kingston and Barrow (which shouldn't be too hard to arrange) then Kingston is still at 59.4-40.0 McCain, while Barrow goes to 52.2-47.2 McCain (from 54-45 Obama).  This is actually being nice to Barrow; one could both make him move and give him a 55% McCain district very easily, but I'm tired and just wanted to get this map out there.  I do wonder how badly the GOP wants to get rid of him; he is, after all, the least valuable Democrat according to 538 now that Artur Davis is gone. 

The new district is in bronze, taking in the Atlanta south and southeast exurbs, primarily.  Without its Gwinnett parts, it's at 61.4-37.9 McCain. 
 
Everyone else should be just as safe as before; I haven't calculated because it's pretty darn obvious.  Gingrey (GA-11, in light green) has the GOP parts of Cobb anchored by Paulding and Bartow exurbs which run 70% McCain.  Price, GA-06 in teal, has some of the white parts of north Atlanta and DeKalb (I checked most of those precincts - they're about 50-55% McCain in total), plus his home base of Roswell/Alpharetta in north Fulton (>60% McCain), plus Cherokee County at 75% McCain.  Woodall (GA-07, in gray), took a purplish DeKalb finger, but lost lean-GOP north Gwinnett while gaining Hall and Jackson Counties (75% McCain).  He's safe. 

Graves (GA-9, light blue) takes the lean-GOP north Gwinnett from Woodall and Broun (GA-10, pink) soaks up some black voters west of Augusta, but given that they still have their parts of north Georgia, they're more than comfortable. 

So the totals are:

9 solid GOP district
1 lean GOP district
1 minority-almost-plularity-but-still-somewhat-swingy district
3 solid Atlanta Dems

Plus, if you really want to mess with Bishop you still have room to do that as well. 

[dpmapper]

Broun lives in Athens, and that's where Barrow used to live, so you probably don't want to run an Athens-Savannah district, besides the usual non-compactness reasons. 

The reason I wasn't sure about how many blacks the GOP would want to pack into Bishop's district is that none of the bordering GOP reps need much help, plus they don't want to completely destroy their chances of picking him off if any additional ethical improprieties surface.  Plus it gets pretty ugly if you want to get it much higher than 50%. 

I wouldn't run the GOP districts too far in - you get white liberals and Georgia Tech if you do that.  If I had run them any farther into north Atlanta and inner DeKalb in my map, I would have been picking up areas which were Obama 55%+.  Better to have 20% minority + white conservatives than a district that's 5% minority but white moderate/liberals.  But these are minor details. 

[dpmapper]

I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines.  My point was more that, even if they're compelled to make it majority black, I doubt that they'll go much higher than 50%+1.  

[dpmapper]

Hmm, maybe they should go after Bishop,  not Barrow.  You might even get Barrow to vote to repeal ObamaCare in exchange for a promise to give him the safe district.  Wouldn't want to give him too many African-Americans, though, lest he lose a primary challenge from the left.  50%+1 should be adequate.  

[dpmapper]

http://savannahnow.com/news/2011-08-10/kingston-okay-district-including-all-chatham-if-it-keeps-its-military-bases

Kingston is willing to take Chatham and Effingham.

Next challenge is for someone to draw a map that does that and keeps all four bases in. How hard can that be, if they're willing to make the lines wonky? It's not like Austin Scott's district is going to become that much more competitive.

It's really quite easy, and looks reasonable too.  You just have to avoid going too far inland until you reach the Florida border.  Statesboro, Waycross, Jesup - all of them should be in other districts.  Result is about a 56% McCain district. 

[dpmapper]

Legislative maps!

http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/en-US/default.aspx

On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks

The GOP was pretty gentle on the senate map.  Hooks is the only Dem they seem to have destroyed (the last white Dem outside the ATL metro, no?).  They also have two swing seats around northern Atlanta (6 & 40; currently split between parties) even though they could have tilted them further pretty easily. 

[dpmapper]

Tough to see.

The  southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs.

I don't see how the Democrats hold that one.

Doug Stoner is also white.

http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21


Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats.

OK, so D6 was solid Dem and now is a swingy seat, slight lean R - I mapped it in DRA and it went about 50-51% McCain.  D40 was also about 51% McCain; dunno how safe it was previously.  I guess this means Republicans gain 1.5 seats... just on the cusp of a veto-proof majority. 

PS.  You missed the "outside the Atlanta metro" part of my post.