US House Redistricting: Georgia (user search)
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  US House Redistricting: Georgia (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Georgia  (Read 39060 times)
Linus Van Pelt
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Posts: 2,144


« on: January 04, 2011, 06:30:43 PM »

I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines.

Actually you can get a small outright majority and still have the most normal-looking rural VRA district in the south after MS-2.

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Linus Van Pelt
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,144


« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2011, 01:42:43 PM »

The other issue is that Unnamed New Black Congressperson (D-GA) will probably be more liberal than Bishop. Regina Thomas who got 42% in the primary against Barrow was definitely running to his left; it wasn't a sort of racial non-ideological challenge like that Lawson dude in north Florida was running. So if you're going to have one guaranteed VRA seat, you might as well have it be Bishop, from the GOP's point of view, ideologically speaking.

I mean, I know the sides dislike each other, but this isn't some 8-year old boys' schoolyard fight in which pissing off the other guy is itself a victory regardless of your own interests.
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Linus Van Pelt
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,144


« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2011, 07:05:15 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2011, 07:07:00 PM by 555 95472 »

Given Muon's comments about the De Grandy decision and the recent Louisiana preclearance, it seems pretty likely that 10-4 with an attack on Barrow will be ruled constitutional. It's possible to get the 12th up to 56% McCain while keeping the 1st, 8th and 10th all at 59/60 without any of the squiggly stuff courts don't like on the borders among these districts, and without any major modifications to the rest of the state. I think this is much more likely than the attack on Bishop discussed earlier in the thread, which would require one of the GOP incumbents to get a much less white district. With all incumbent residences in the district of the same number and the new 14th district in the region of the redistricters' Hall County base:



(All race numbers VAP)
1 (blue): 59/41 McCain, 65% W
2 (forest green): 61/39 Obama, 51% B
3 (purple): 65/34 McCain, 72% W
4 (red): 80/19 Obama, 52% B
5 (yellow): 81/18 Obama, 51% B
6 (dark green north Atlanta): 60/39 McCain, 66% W
7 (grey): 66/33 McCain, 69% W
8 (purply-blue): 60/40 McCain, 64% W
9 (pale blue NW): 70/28 McCain, 84% W
10 (pink): 60/39 McCain, 71% W
11 (light green): 60/39 McCain, 65% W
12 (pale blue central): 56/44 McCain, 61% W (currently D+1)
13 (beige): 70/29 Obama, 57% B
14 (bronze): 74/25 McCain, 78% W
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