US House Redistricting: Georgia

[Verily]

There's really no excuse not to make Bishop's district majority black now that it is very possible to do so. Don't think the Republicans will be able to get away with anything less.

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Couldn't hurt to put the black parts of Newton County in GA-04.

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Reposting this here:


I'm curious if anyone knows--has Dave's Redistricting been updated for the 2009 ACS figures? I ask specifically about Georgia (I know he has new figures for New England.) I was poking around the NYT map, and then verified this info on the American FactFinder Census site, and the black population is increasing so fast in some parts of the suburban Atlanta metro that it may in fact be not only possible but easy to draw a fourth black majority seat in the Atlanta metro (which could affect whether the DOJ  sues to force one).

For example, Rockdale County, GA was estimated at 32.6% black in 2008 ACS and is now estimated at 37.0% black in the 2009 ACS. On that 3.4% annual increase, it would be around 39% black at the 2010 Census (which is less than a full year after the ACS). Similar rapid growth is shown in Newton County, Henry County, Douglas County and Cobb County (and to a lesser extent in Gwinnett County, where Hispanics and Asians form the larger part of the new residents, and in Clayton County, which increased from 51% black in 2000 to 60% in the 2009 ACS but seems to have stabilized recently). It is accompanied by a slight decline in Fulton County, but the decline in Fulton is tiny relative to the increase in the others. If the changes really are that rapid, how easy a black district is to create might change dramatically from the 2008 estimates to the 2009 ones, or to the actual 2010 census figures (which will include another half-year of change after the 2009 estimates). And even on the 2008 numbers it is possible, just barely, to craft four black majority seats in the area (albeit only 50-51% black each.)

[Verily]

Per the above, using the ACS 2009 data, four black-majority seats in the Atlanta metro. They probably could be a lot neater (in their boundaries with one another); this was just my first attempt. On the 2010 Census, assuming trends continue, this will be slightly easier. Also, I limited myself to Cobb, Douglas, Fulton, Fayette, Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton and Rockdale Counties. It becomes a LOT easier if you're allowed to reach into Spaulding and Coweta Counties (which historically were separate but today I think have a fair number of commuters).

[Verily]

What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them?

The requirements are sort of vague. They have to represent communities of interest, which means no maps that stretch tiny spindles across states to create minority majority seats. For example, Corinne Brown's seat would never be required--although the Florida GOP wanted to draw it to pack in Democrats, so there was no suit forcing its creation. I think BK's map suggests that communities of interest would be met, especially as the Richmond-Savannah link exists even now, and Macon is not far outside of Bishop's current seat.

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I don't get why you think making GA-02 majority black VAP is so hard on the Census numbers, BK. It's pretty easy. You have to be willing to split a few counties, but around 52% black VAP is not hard at all and doesn't look all that messy. The below map has GA-02 as 52.1% black VAP (ignore the surrounding districts).

[Verily]

I find it highly unlikely that a court would rule similarly today. That was just a district court, after all. Also, I think my version is neater (and could be even more neat if needed while maintaining 50% VAP).

And back then it was certainly possible for the candidate favored by black voters to win a 40% black seat in the area. Not so nowadays--the need to protect minority interest in electing their preferred representative has become much stronger as the non-black vote has swung to ultra-Republican.

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There's no way that district would pass muster. The courts would simply say that incumbent protection could be accomplished in a much easier fashion without combining communities obviously of not similar interest.

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Just did it. Actually had a lot of excess black population, so the bright yellow district (or is it bright green--colorblind) is 61% black and there are plenty of excess blacks in Cobb County. Not enough for a 7th seat, though, I don't think.

Majority black VAP seats are the grey, teal, purple, hot pink, cyan and bright yellow ones, unless my colorblindness caused me to misdescribe the colors.

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I think that's mostly realistic, but that GA-07 is risky. Not in 2012, but by 2018 or 2020... Gwinnett County is changing fast, and the Georgia Republicans know it. They'll split it up across districts.

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More importantly, Miller v. Johnson was decided at a time when the preferred black candidate could genuinely win a 40% black district in that area, so drawing a 55% black seat and a 30% black seat denied blacks the ability to elect their preferred candidates in two different seats. Not any more.

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Which 40% Black seats in the deep South have a Black representative again?

Sanford Bishop won the 2nd District after the post- Miller v. Johnson 1995 redistricting; at the time it was 60% white.

Also, preferred black candidate =/= black person.

[Verily]

You're overstating the PVIs in your calculation. PVI isn't Democratic minus Republican (or the reverse); it's the difference between one party's vote and the most recent result. The absolute maximum Democratic PVI, using 2008 as a base, is D+47; the absolute maximum Republican PVI is R+53.

On the assumption that 2008 was 53D-47R, a 60D-40R seat is D+7, not D+20 or D+14. A 60R-40D seat is R+13, not R+20 or R+26.