US House Redistricting: Georgia (user search)
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Bacon King
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« on: January 05, 2011, 09:28:59 AM »

My expectations for Georgia redistricting:

-The 2nd will become minority-majority
-They'll gun for Barrow, possibly by forcing him to run against, Kingston, or maybe Broun or Scott.
-The new district will be placed in such a way that northwest Georgia (Dalton, Rome, ect.) gets it's own district.

Also, if any Republican loses his district it'll be Gingrey, who's like 70 and is rumored to be contemplating retirement anyway.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2011, 12:18:19 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2011, 12:23:05 PM by Bacon King »



Here's my take on a likely/possible Georgia map: (analysis by district below goes from south to north, roughly)

2nd (dark green): 52% black, 43% white.
Bishop's district gains Macon to make it majority black.

8th (blue on the border with FL): 67% white, 25% black.
Austin Scott gets a safe seat.

1st (dark blue, southeast): 59% white, 34% black.
Kingston's seat; Barrow might also run. (I should have swapped territory with the 8th to make both districts about 64% white, honestly. Pretend that happened here. Especially with more to the south and less to the north, it's areas where Kingston already has campaign infrastructure and all that. Kingston v. Barrow would be an easy Kingston win in that circumstance.)

12th (blue district in middle of the state): 61% white, 33% black.
Open seat ready for a Republican legislator. Marshall could run but he'd have a much harder time winning without his Macon base. I imagine someone like State Senators Tollerson or Staton would run for the seat, which would further reduce Marshall's chances with their political bases in north Bibb Co. and Houston Co., respectively.

3rd (yellow): 66% white, 26% black.
A safe seat for Westmoreland that scoops up most of Henry County to avoid having a closer suburban district on the map that could switch parties with a demographic shift.

11th (lime green): 76% white, 13% black.
Safe for Gingrey or whatever Republican holds it if he retires.

13th (salmon) 55% black, 30% white, 10% hispanic.
Minority-majority district, safe for Scott.

5th (purple) 55% black, 31% white, 10% hispanic.
Minority-majority district, safe for Lewis.

4th (red): 56% black, 23% white, 14% hispanic.
Minority-majority district, safe for Johnson.

6th district (teal): 68% white, 14% hispanic.
Safe for Price. Minimal risk of demographic change; the wealthy whites in gentrified Buckhead and the "McMansion" suburbs of old Milton aren't going anywhere.

7th (gray): 63% white, 18% black, 11% hispanic.
Safe for Woodall. Takes in wealthy and white Oconee County to keep Woodall safer from future demographic changes in Gwinnett.

10th (pink): 63% white, 28% black
Safe for Broun (though with this district he could be primaried from that guy in Augusta- who IIRC the GOP establishment liked more anyway). Barrow would probably try to run in this district (switching his residency back to his home in Athens) because it includes both Athens and Augusta. The inclusion of the outer Atlanta suburbia with Barrow (the county) and Jackson in this district would help shore up the GOP candidate, though.

14th (golden brown): 81% white, 10% hispanic.
Safe GOP seat with no incumbent. I know this district will be created with a certain state legislator (who's on the redistricting committee, lol) in mind; don't remember his name. I want to say he represents somewhere around Dalton.

9th (sky blue in the northeast): 81% white, 11% hispanic.
Safe seat for Graves.

And, there you have it. A 10-4 map for the GOP without messy boundaries, legitimate grounds for a VRA lawsuit, or risk of losing seats within the decade from demographic movement.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2011, 08:50:08 AM »

That wouldn't make it through the assembly's redistricting committee. Nobody wants Texas-style fajita strip districts, nor is it really neccesary for an 11-3 district. Legislators from the north would go mad seeing that map.  assuming the state wants a fight with the Feds to get that 11th district anyway (though the combative signals from the new Secretary of State and Attorney General make it seem possible), this map wouldn't be it.

I doubt Graves (Hall) and Broun (Clarke) would really like being in the same district, and you're making Westmoreland's district unneccesarily marginal. The new district could tilt with demographic change too.

I won't be at a computer until tomorrow (posting on my phone now) but I'll try my hand at a 11-3 map when I get the chance.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2011, 09:28:04 AM »
« Edited: January 08, 2011, 09:29:55 AM by Bacon King »

What makes you think you could abolish a VRA seat while gaining a seat overall? Unless the Black pop. dropped, that seems just perfectly obviously imposs.

I personally agree with you, but Attorney General Olens has indicated that he's itching for a fight with the government over redistricting.

Expect something subtle I think, if the legislature takes the bait salivating over that possible extra seat. Perhaps a new district for Bishop with a similar racial breakdown, but exchanging some of the current whites in his district with wealthier, more Republican whites in Houston County perhaps? That way "on paper" it wouldn't be as bad. Or perhaps even give him a district he could win in 2012 but would be likely to lose in 2014, thus muddying up any lawsuit against it.

Of course, not saying the GOP here would actually try to pull any of this, but it sadly is an option on the table for them. Oh well.     
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Bacon King
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2011, 12:08:59 PM »

I know this is "US House" redistricting, but I'll just put this here unless you guys think another thread is appropriate.

Georgia's legislature will have quite a hard time redistricting its own seats. The southern half of the state will lose something like two Senate seats and six Assembly seats to the Atlanta metro.

I've toyed around with the seats in the south, it looks like they'll be facing many tough decisions- which Republicans get their districts carved out? They can't remove the Democratic districts left down there, because it would make all the surrounding Republican seats more marginal.

Also, districting the new districts in the Atlanta area could very well prove difficult as well (though I haven't messed around in the app yet there)- more seats and greater population density necessarily means more compact districts, which makes it a lot harder to protect suburban Republicans in counties like Gwinnett and Cobb from the inevitable demographic shifting.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2011, 12:13:29 PM »


And definitely more compact than this monstrosity:

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Bacon King
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2011, 03:15:56 PM »

Here's an evil idea- putting the black parts of Albany, Columbus, Macon, AND Augusta  all in the 2nd district. I've been toying around with it on the app and it can actually be done pretty easily; it can be done in two ways. First, it could cut across the northern edge of the black belt all the way from Alabama to South Carolina and fit three full districts south of it (with an extension the width of a single county cutting down to Albany). Alternatively, you could give Bishop more of his old territory and a cleaner-looking district, but it would require one of the south districts to awkwardly skim the SC border through Augusta and take in the white suburbs to the north. Either way, it eliminates Barrow, prevents a Marshall comeback, and provides a ~55% black VRA district for Bishop (and with enough of his old territory that he'd be pretty safe from a primary challenge by someone more liberal).

Will post maps.   
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Bacon King
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2011, 03:56:20 PM »

Here's option A.



Eastern district (incumbent is Kingston): 60% white, 32% black (-320 from ideal pop.)
Southern district (no incumbent): 65% white, 28% black (+181 from ideal pop.)
Central district (incumbent is Scott): 60% white, 35% black (-215 from ideal pop.)

Green district (incumbent is Bishop): 54% black, 41% white (+161 from ideal pop.)

the three Republican districts here aren't perfect, but the focus here is the 2nd district.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2011, 04:21:40 PM »



Here's Plan B.

Dark blue- Kingston- 63% white, 29% black
Medium blue- Scott- 63% white, 30% black
light blue- Barrow (but he'd lose)- 62% white, 31% black

Green- Bishop- 56% black, 39% white
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Bacon King
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« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2011, 06:53:36 PM »



Here's the census definition of the metro area. Pretty easy to fit four black districts in those borders, especially if one doesn't mind some tendrils.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2011, 02:57:33 PM »

Toying around with the 2009 ACS estimates, it's actually very easy to make both the 2nd and the 12th majority black...



1st (dark blue): 70% white, 23% black
2nd (green): 53% black, 43% white
8th (medium blue): 66% white, 28% black
12th (light blue): 52% black, 44% white

Can/would the DOJ sue to force something like this, since it's possible?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2011, 02:18:51 PM »

Ah, missed this post earlier.

How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%?

Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win.

Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2011, 02:41:14 PM »

Also, The State Senate PPT lost an intra-party fight with Lt. Governor Cagle regarding, among other things, control over redistricting. This means that all three men in control of the process will be from the Atlanta Metro area. Not sure what effects that will have in the south.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2011, 10:44:15 AM »

Ah, missed this post earlier.

How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%?

Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win.

Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites.

That sounds interesting but for right now, I am just wonding how Republican a 63% white district in South Ga would be since someone said that your idea to undo Barrow would make Kingston vulnerable.

Kingston would be fine with a 63% white district. First off, there wouldn't be any change in the voting patterns of the district's white- the relatively moderate white vote within Savannah would be cancelled out by the especially conservative Savannah suburbs. Kingston routinely gets around 70% of the vote in his 72% white district; a 63% white district would still keep him safe in even a very rough election.
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Bacon King
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E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2011, 11:22:17 PM »

Okay, I've toyed around with the 2010 data for a few minutes in Dave's app; it looks like making either the 2nd or 12th into a 50% black VAP district will require a pretty ugly gerrymander.

However, a glimpse at the Atlanta metro gives me the impression that drawing four black districts there could be done a great deal more simply than with the ACS data- possibly with the districts even looking somewhat clean.

When I wake up tomorrow I'll try a map.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2011, 01:48:45 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2011, 01:57:48 PM by Bacon King »



With the Southern part of the state losing population, one of the four existing districts down there will basically be pushed northwards as the other districts take its territory. The above map turns the 8th district into a black majority district by losing all the territory south of Macon and pushing a bit into the Atlanta metro.

It's then very simple to create three other black majority districts in the Atlanta area, thus fulfilling GA's four "expected" VRA districts, allowing the 2nd and 12th to be easily taken from their incumbents.

I'm not sure if this map messes with any Republican incumbents; the lines might have to be moved a mile or so around Lawrenceville (Gwinnett) for Woodall and in Marrietta (Cobb) for Gingrey, but that wouldn't be a problem.



VAP%:

dark green
50.0% black (actually 50.013% so passes Gingles)
37.8% white
7.9% hispanic

light green
50.7% black
33.7% white
9.9% hispanic

yellow
51.1% black
24.5% white
15.6% hispanic
6.9% asian

gray
50.1% black
42.1% white
4.4% hispanic



I'm gonna try to turn this into a full map now.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2011, 03:51:38 PM »



CD1: Kingston's seat stays pretty similar. Safe R. 66.7% white, 25.2% black.

CD2: Austin Scott facing off in favorable conditions against Sanford Bishop. This district is basically the old 8th district's portion south of Macon, (the half of the district Scott is from, so more of a personal vote too) plus Bishop's home of Albany, and a swath of territory from the old 2nd district he lost 2-1 last year (and he got only about half of the vote in these counties in 2008, in spite of winning with 69% against a no-name challenger). Note that the whites in this part of the state have become very Republican in the last decade. Strong R. 58.6% white, 34.7% black.

CD3: Westmoreland's district taking in the rest of Bishop's old district. It has enough of the old 3rd to keep Westmoreland comfortable; potential demographic changes will only make it easier for him. Safe R. 62.7% white, 30.3% black.

CD4: Hank Johnson keeps a safe district that extends out include to minority areas in Snellville and Lawrenceville to protect the Woodall from shifting demographics in the future. Safe D, VRA district. 51.1% black, 24.5% white, 15.6% hispanic, 6.9% asian.

CD5: Lewis's district stays safe, but extends out to central Cobb now to keep Gingrey's district safer. Safe D, VRA district. 50.7% black, 33.7% white, 9.9% hispanic.

CD6: Price's district shifts south to take in some more liberal white areas in Atlanta, but it's extremely wealthy, white, and conservative north Fulton base stays the same. Safe/strong R. 65.6% white, 12.2% hispanic, 12.0% black, 8.4% asian.

CD7: Woodall keeps a safe district that'll be safe for the decade thanks to losing Gwinnett's heavily minority areas in return for white and conservative outer suburbs. Safe R. 66.8% white, 12.5% black, 10% asian.

CD8: Like I said in the last post, The old 8th loses its southern half and gains on its northern end to become a VRA district. It'd be an open seat; Jim Marshall could actually win it if no major black candidates run. Strong D (may become vulnerable to a takeover later in the decade) 50.1% black, 42.1% white.

CD9: Tom Graves' safe district. yawn. Safe R. 84.5% white.

CD10: Broun's district that he'd probably lose if challenged by a Hall County Republican. The GA GOP establishment hates Broun, and the redistricting trifecta (Gov, Lt. Gov [as head of State Senate], Speaker) are all from Hall County, so this kills two birds with one stone. Safe R. 78.1% white, 9.6% hispanic, 9.3% black.

CD11: Safe seat for Gingrey; basically a mirror of Woodall in the 7th. Safe R. 78.7% white, 10.3% black.

CD12: The district to get rid of Barrow. Takes away the black parts of Augusta and replaces it with plenty of superconservative rural territory. Strong R. 60.3% white, 32.8% black.

CD13: David Scott's district. Currently safe D but demographic change could make it competitive, especially for someone scandal-prone like Scott. Strong D. 50.01% black, 37.7% white.

CD14: open seat, kind of an awkward district but necessary given everything around it. Besides, IIRC there's a big mover-and-shaker in the state legislature in this area really wanting a district. 64% white, 29.9% black.

So there you have it. 8R-4D Georgia with the four D's all VRA Atlanta districts, all eight Republicans pretty safe and in familiar districts, and even a possible pickup opportunity for the Republicans to maybe hold a VRA district for two years if given a "perfect storm" situation.

Thoughts?
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Bacon King
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E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2011, 11:33:24 PM »

My comments:

-if you're trying to get rid of Bishop there's much easier ways to do it (see my map)
-regarding putting into the 6th district parts of Atlanta that "never should have been in the 5th at all", do note that those areas looked very different demographically in 2000 than they do now.
-7th district won't happen. Hall County will either have no incumbent or an incumbent the state party hates (Broun).
-Graves actually lives in the eastern part of Gordon County so you've cut him out of his district.
-at 30% black Georgia's gonna have a 4th black district; given how easy a 4th minority district is to make I don't see how they'd pass preclearance otherwise.
-it's much easier and simpler to push Columbus into the 3rd than put it in your crazy 13th district
-your map looks FAR more gerrymandered than it really needs to be, especially in North GA. Note, for example, that my map's districts are gerrymandered to hell and back, but for the most part aren't overtly ugly on the map. Style matters as much as function with these things, at least as far as a potential media response is concerned.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2011, 01:30:59 AM »

Per the 2000 census data, that area around Buckhead (and to the north) between I-75 and I-85 was always predominantly white and wealthy. It's still like that 10 years later, I believe, or at least it was last year when I visited.

Okay, Buckhead, yeah. I didn't look at the map that closely and thought you were talking about somewhere closer to Midtown.

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True, and it wouldn't be that hard to do, I was just pointing it out for ya.

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To be fair, I only learned which town Graves lives in when I was making my own map earlier today Tongue

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I have no idea where in Athens-Clarke County Broun resides, but the easiest way to shore up the 10th for you would be to place minority areas of Clarke and the librul bastion of UGA while flipping some territory north of Hall County into the 10th.

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Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is Tongue Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created.
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Bacon King
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E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2011, 10:11:50 AM »

I've retooled my map a little bit. Goodness, I'll probably keep at this until I have it perfect, just like Torie when he does this. Tongue



Close-up of the Atlanta metro:



Highlights:

- I've realized that Kingston's district can hold all of Chatham Co. and still remain a safe seat.
- From that, I've been able to take the 12th district permanently out of Barrow's hands.
- I redid the four minority districts so they look nicer. Note that while CD5 does look a bit odd extending into Gwinnett like that, it does so by pushing up around I-85 so it actually makes a bit of sense.
- Although it probably doesn't matter that much, I gave CD6 territory in the very religious, conservative, and suburban Cobb/Cherokee Counties to minimize any affect that white liberals in the south of the district would have.
- I did what I could to shore up Westmoreland more by giving him more of his current district's conservative suburbs. It's more than 8% less black than his current district so I think he'll be okay.
- Gave Broun a district separate from the Hall district; note the Athens split (that is, interestingly almost identical to how Athens is currently split by GA Sen. districts)

Demographics! (groups w/ over 10% are listed)

CD1: 60.5% white, 29.7% black (VAP: 63.4% white, 28.3% black)
CD2: 54.7% white, 37.1% black (VAP: 57.8% white, 35.4% black)
CD3: 59.7% white, 31.7% black (VAP: 62.0% white, 30.5% black)
CD4: 52.1% black, 24.6% white (VAP: 50.1% black, 38.2% white)
CD5: 51.4% black, 24.9% white, 14.6% hispanic (VAP: 50.1% black, 28.4% white, 12.5% hispanic)
CD6: 66.6% white, 13.8% hispanic, 11.2% black (VAP: 68.5% white, 12.1% hispanic, 11.4% black)
CD7: 62.7% white, 12.3% hispanic, 11.8% asian, 11.0% black (VAP: 65.1% white, 11.7% asian, 11.1% hispanic, 10.6% black)
CD8: 52.3% black, 34.8% white (VAP: 50.2% black, 38.5% white)
CD9: 81.3% white, 11.0% hispanic (VAP: 84.3% white)
CD10: 60.1% white, 31.7% black (62.8% white, 30.1% black)
CD11: 75.0% white, 14.5% black

.... and then I accidentally X'd out of the app. Derp. The 13th was demographically identical to the other three VRA districts, the 12th was about 64% white, and of course the 14th was very white.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2011, 10:38:46 AM »
« Edited: March 22, 2011, 10:40:36 AM by Bacon King »

Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is Tongue Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created.

The way I see it: Deal, Kingston, Gingrey, Norwood, Price, and Westmoreland all really, really hate section 5 and tried to get rid of it in 2006. They'll sue.

Oh, I don't doubt they'll try, but do realize it almost certainly won't work.

I remember Westmoreland getting extremely excited in 2009, saying that it looked like Section 5 would soon be on the way out, and then two weeks later the Supreme Court decided 8-1 that the 2006 Section 5 extention was constitutional. Doubt a lawsuit would work for Deal on that front Tongue

They could try to bail out, but while it would possibly be successful it wouldn't be done in time for 2012 districts.

But yeah, let's assume that Georgia tries to submit a 3-VRA district map for preclearance because this state's Republicans really want to fight the Feds on everything. Let's also assume that most likely, after a potentially costly legal battle, Georgia will end up being required to draw a 4-VRA district map. Krazen, let's assume you are attempting to model the former while I'm attempting to model the latter Tongue

Also, since it seems to be only the two of us following this thread right now, do you have any comments/criticism besides the number of VRA districts? I'd like to improve this thing some more.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2011, 12:47:15 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2011, 12:50:25 PM by Bacon King »

The thing is, with four black majority districts that form coherent communities of interest so simple to create, you have a pretty clear Section 2 requirement that the Feds will surely demand in preclearance. From a Republican perspective, I think it's better to put the fourth VRA district in the Atlanta area- in south GA the black vote is so spread out that a black district will be a tangly mess (and it's instead easier to dilute the population between districts without risk of demographic upsets since the black population is shrinking badly). Modifying either the 2nd or 12th into black majority districts is MUCH harder than the 2009 ACS suggested, which I used for the earlier maps you're talking about. With four Atlanta VRA districts like in my 2010 data maps, those four districts can push into Atlanta's middle suburbs to prevent minority population growth in the next decade from pushing Gingrey and Woodall put of office. You deal with this problem by cutting up Gwinnett, which is less preferable for many from a community of interest perspective (ex: Gilmer County has enough of an issue being in a Hall/Forsyth district, no way their state legislators would support a map that extends their district even further south!)

You're right about Gingrey/Price, just imagine a bit of territory pushed east in each district to push Price out of Cobb and Woodall out of Fulton. Maintain equality by shifting population from the 14th to the 7th, 9th from the 14th, and 11th from the 9th so it all evens out.

I don't think Kingston would mind that new district much, honestly. He'd be safe, keep his base, and has always struck me as a timid guy anyway. Westmoreland, on the other hand, might pitch a fit, but making his district any safer in my second map would require keeping Sanford in a tossup-ish district while putting Austin Scott over in my 12th district. Doable but less preferable for the GOP.

Of course, maybe you're right- I don't really like the state Republican party and ideally support nonpartisan redistricting reform, so this is just a sort of academic excercise for me- my heart's not in it Tongue           
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Bacon King
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E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2011, 03:31:45 PM »

Ah, I'm an idiot. Tongue it was around 3 AM when I tried and found it "impossible", and didn't bother trying again afterwards; I'll just blame it on the sleep deprivation.
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2011, 03:59:29 PM »

Oh, just found this out: a second district shaped pretty similarly to Verily's there was declared unconstitutional in a Federal district court in the nineties, echoing the Supreme Court's earlier reasoning in Miller v. Johnson.



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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2011, 04:23:12 PM »

I find it highly unlikely that a court would rule similarly today. That was just a district court, after all. Also, I think my version is neater (and could be even more neat if needed while maintaining 50% VAP).

And back then it was certainly possible for the candidate favored by black voters to win a 40% black seat in the area. Not so nowadays--the need to protect minority interest in electing their preferred representative has become much stronger as the non-black vote has swung to ultra-Republican.

True. Also, one could argue that your district is drawn for incumbency protection and partisanship reasons, both of which are constitutional (and neither of which applied in '92).
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