US House Redistricting: Georgia

[krazen1211]

Try something like these districts (either the gold or the purple):



The purple one maintains similar racial percentages to Sanford Bishop's existing CD-2. The gold is a coalition district.

[Bacon King]

The thing is, with four black majority districts that form coherent communities of interest so simple to create, you have a pretty clear Section 2 requirement that the Feds will surely demand in preclearance. From a Republican perspective, I think it's better to put the fourth VRA district in the Atlanta area- in south GA the black vote is so spread out that a black district will be a tangly mess (and it's instead easier to dilute the population between districts without risk of demographic upsets since the black population is shrinking badly). Modifying either the 2nd or 12th into black majority districts is MUCH harder than the 2009 ACS suggested, which I used for the earlier maps you're talking about. With four Atlanta VRA districts like in my 2010 data maps, those four districts can push into Atlanta's middle suburbs to prevent minority population growth in the next decade from pushing Gingrey and Woodall put of office. You deal with this problem by cutting up Gwinnett, which is less preferable for many from a community of interest perspective (ex: Gilmer County has enough of an issue being in a Hall/Forsyth district, no way their state legislators would support a map that extends their district even further south!)

You're right about Gingrey/Price, just imagine a bit of territory pushed east in each district to push Price out of Cobb and Woodall out of Fulton. Maintain equality by shifting population from the 14th to the 7th, 9th from the 14th, and 11th from the 9th so it all evens out.

I don't think Kingston would mind that new district much, honestly. He'd be safe, keep his base, and has always struck me as a timid guy anyway. Westmoreland, on the other hand, might pitch a fit, but making his district any safer in my second map would require keeping Sanford in a tossup-ish district while putting Austin Scott over in my 12th district. Doable but less preferable for the GOP.

Of course, maybe you're right- I don't really like the state Republican party and ideally support nonpartisan redistricting reform, so this is just a sort of academic excercise for me- my heart's not in it            

[Verily]

I don't get why you think making GA-02 majority black VAP is so hard on the Census numbers, BK. It's pretty easy. You have to be willing to split a few counties, but around 52% black VAP is not hard at all and doesn't look all that messy. The below map has GA-02 as 52.1% black VAP (ignore the surrounding districts).

[Bacon King]

Ah, I'm an idiot. it was around 3 AM when I tried and found it "impossible", and didn't bother trying again afterwards; I'll just blame it on the sleep deprivation.

[minionofmidas]

I was just about to say, Verily. "Are you guys sure you can't draw a Black district out of Columbus, Macon and Albany? I have a hard time believing that."

[Bacon King]

Oh, just found this out: a second district shaped pretty similarly to Verily's there was declared unconstitutional in a Federal district court in the nineties, echoing the Supreme Court's earlier reasoning in Miller v. Johnson.

[Verily]

I find it highly unlikely that a court would rule similarly today. That was just a district court, after all. Also, I think my version is neater (and could be even more neat if needed while maintaining 50% VAP).

And back then it was certainly possible for the candidate favored by black voters to win a 40% black seat in the area. Not so nowadays--the need to protect minority interest in electing their preferred representative has become much stronger as the non-black vote has swung to ultra-Republican.

[Bacon King]

I find it highly unlikely that a court would rule similarly today. That was just a district court, after all. Also, I think my version is neater (and could be even more neat if needed while maintaining 50% VAP).

And back then it was certainly possible for the candidate favored by black voters to win a 40% black seat in the area. Not so nowadays--the need to protect minority interest in electing their preferred representative has become much stronger as the non-black vote has swung to ultra-Republican.

True. Also, one could argue that your district is drawn for incumbency protection and partisanship reasons, both of which are constitutional (and neither of which applied in '92).

[krazen1211]

True. Also, one could argue that your district is drawn for incumbency protection and partisanship reasons, both of which are constitutional (and neither of which applied in '92).

I don't see that district making it past the legislature; GA Democrats would love it, but for GA Republicans it submerges too many white Uber-Republicans.

If you're making a black district in South Georgia it probably makes more sense to place it where GA-12 is; I think Savannah and Augusta have some white liberals.

I'm glad you posted the original GA-13, though, it was the basis for my new GA-13.


Whether your 4 district plan constitutes 'communities of interest', well, I dunno. You obviously chop both Atlanta and Dekalb County in half, and your 4 way split of Fulton itself.


We'll have a good idea of what the Justice Department is doing with the Louisiana map. Right now, pretty much everyone in North Lousiana hates everyone in South Louisana because nobody wants to lose the axed district. Any attempt to force a 2nd district would incidentally create a common enemy as nobody wants to be represented by a Black Democrat.

[Bacon King]

A black majority 12th would be nigh-impossible. I'll double check but I am pretty sure on that one

Regarding the 2nd, there is some talk here in GA about playing it "safe" and swapping territory between the 2nd and 8th to keep both incumbents safer; Westmoreland especially supports this (probably because he doesn't want his district to be drastically altered, which will necessarily happen in any plan that tries to eliminate Bishop).

The four Atlanta-area districts in my map are almost certainly communities of interest; they all represent reasonably cohesive areas- note that "communities of interest" isn't exactly held to an extremely strict standard and regardless doesn't necessarily equate strictly to municipal boundaries.

Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread

[Bacon King]

This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP.

[krazen1211]

This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP.

Try arcing it down to Albany.

[Bacon King]

Here ya go. This hideous miscarriage of justice clocks in at a 53.8% VAP.

[Dgov]

This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP.

That's not actually all that bad of a district.  its better than most south Georgia Black-majority districts I've seen.

On top of that, this benefits the Republicans (more if they can cut out Effington county), because they can split the current 2nd in half and force Bishop to pick up some more conservative territory in South-Central Georgia and lose the black part of Columbus, which can be safely put in the current 3rd district.

[krazen1211]

Here ya go. This hideous miscarriage of justice clocks in at a 53.8% VAP.

It's not clean, but I'd guess the PVI on that is about 5 points better than the Columbus Albany Macon district.

Does Augusta have its share of white liberals? Richmond County is 51% black and 66% Obama, so it does seem like there are a few.

[Verily]

There's no way that district would pass muster. The courts would simply say that incumbent protection could be accomplished in a much easier fashion without combining communities obviously of not similar interest.

[krazen1211]

There's no way that district would pass muster. The courts would simply say that incumbent protection could be accomplished in a much easier fashion without combining communities obviously of not similar interest.

Incumbent protection wouldn't be the justification here; obviously the GOP has no interest in protecting Democratic incumbents.

[krazen1211]

Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread

Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2nd district, but rather maintaining the 2nd district and converting the 4th into another black district.

That's what the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus wants, anyway, and some of them think the DOJ is their vehicle to get it. But hell will freeze over before it happens, even though its 'theoratically ' possible. I suspect we'll see the same thing in LA, AL, GA, and SC: We'll see 60-65% packs come out of the legislature, and the DOJ will pick its response.

[Bacon King]

Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread

Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2nd district, but rather maintaining the 2nd district and converting the 4th into another black district.

That's what the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus wants, anyway, and some of them think the DOJ is their vehicle to get it. But hell will freeze over before it happens, even though its 'theoratically ' possible. I suspect we'll see the same thing in LA, AL, GA, and SC: We'll see 60-65% packs come out of the legislature, and the DOJ will pick its response.

There's a huge world of difference between the stringy proposed maps of Louisiana and, for example, the 4 VRA district GA plans.

[RI]

Anyone want to do a 6+ VRA district map?

[Verily]

Just did it. Actually had a lot of excess black population, so the bright yellow district (or is it bright green--colorblind) is 61% black and there are plenty of excess blacks in Cobb County. Not enough for a 7th seat, though, I don't think.

Majority black VAP seats are the grey, teal, purple, hot pink, cyan and bright yellow ones, unless my colorblindness caused me to misdescribe the colors.

[Bacon King]

(or is it bright green--colorblind)

it's lime green

And that is a beautifully hideous map, great work there Verily. I could see a 7th seat, made by shaving down the 61% district, taking up Cobb County, then extending tendrils outwards to the cities in the north with some minority population (especially if it could make it over to Hall Co.) being <50% white and maybe even a black-hispanic coalition district.

[Dgov]

You can easily do a 7-VRA district if you just go for plurality Black instead of majority-black.  You can get 5 in the Atlanta area alone, and two more in South Georgia.

[Bacon King]

But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.

[minionofmidas]

But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.

No, that applies to semi-sorta-community-of-interest areas of district size that a district absolutely must be drawn based on, unless there's more of those than would be strictly proportional to the overall Black population. In other words, moot point with these fantasy maps.
Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice.