US House Redistricting: Georgia

[Bacon King]

A black majority 12th would be nigh-impossible. I'll double check but I am pretty sure on that one

Regarding the 2nd, there is some talk here in GA about playing it "safe" and swapping territory between the 2nd and 8th to keep both incumbents safer; Westmoreland especially supports this (probably because he doesn't want his district to be drastically altered, which will necessarily happen in any plan that tries to eliminate Bishop).

The four Atlanta-area districts in my map are almost certainly communities of interest; they all represent reasonably cohesive areas- note that "communities of interest" isn't exactly held to an extremely strict standard and regardless doesn't necessarily equate strictly to municipal boundaries.

Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread

[Bacon King]

This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP.

[Bacon King]

Here ya go. This hideous miscarriage of justice clocks in at a 53.8% VAP.

[Bacon King]

Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread

Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2nd district, but rather maintaining the 2nd district and converting the 4th into another black district.

That's what the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus wants, anyway, and some of them think the DOJ is their vehicle to get it. But hell will freeze over before it happens, even though its 'theoratically ' possible. I suspect we'll see the same thing in LA, AL, GA, and SC: We'll see 60-65% packs come out of the legislature, and the DOJ will pick its response.

There's a huge world of difference between the stringy proposed maps of Louisiana and, for example, the 4 VRA district GA plans.

[Bacon King]

(or is it bright green--colorblind)

it's lime green

And that is a beautifully hideous map, great work there Verily. I could see a 7th seat, made by shaving down the 61% district, taking up Cobb County, then extending tendrils outwards to the cities in the north with some minority population (especially if it could make it over to Hall Co.) being <50% white and maybe even a black-hispanic coalition district.

[Bacon King]

But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.

[Bacon King]

But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.

No, that applies to semi-sorta-community-of-interest areas of district size that a district absolutely must be drawn based on, unless there's more of those than would be strictly proportional to the overall Black population. In other words, moot point with these fantasy maps.
Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice.

Ah, thanks for the info

I love how this forum is such a wealth of knowledge- I'm pretty sure I've learned more about politics and related topics here over the years than I have from all other sources combined, even in college poli sci classes and such.

[Bacon King]

Dawson and Pickens are both in the Atlanta Metro per the Census Bureau, yeah.

[Bacon King]

Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough.

Don't remind me!

[Bacon King]

My precinct in 2008: 77.97% McCain
My precinct in 2004: 82.65% Bush

Neither total includes early/absentee votes. Including those, it probably increases the swing by a couple more percent.

[Bacon King]

Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state.

In Georgia, all three of the redistricting trifecta (governor, lt. gov, and speaker) are from Hall County (in Northeast GA) though that county is currently represented by a guy from the northwest corner of the state. The new district will almost certainly be centered around Hall County.

[Bacon King]

Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.

[Bacon King]

Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.

How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence.

The current map even drowns out the white liberals in Athens. One white liberal district, one (IIRC) plurality black district with a some white liberals, and one district that drowns out some white liberal votes by putting them in a district with the neighboring conservative rural areas.

Also yeah, many (if not most) of the liberal Dekalb/Fulton whites are put into VRA districts.

[Bacon King]

Early scuttlebutt: they're going after Barrow, but shoring up Bishop.

Looks like "influential Georgia Republicans" use Dave's Redistricting App!

The analysis at the link is right, though. The seventh district will definitely be made safer than that. Kingston and Broun's districts also look a bit too marginal compared to what the GOP probably wants, but I'm not sure on that; I'll check PVI on the App later.

edit- hadn't seen krazen's post. That explains that.

[Bacon King]

I could easily see the Republicans doing something like this for the Congressional map:



1st: 56.1% R, 64.1% white
2nd: 60.5% D, 50.9% black
3rd: 64.6% R, 69.8% white
4th: 80.7% D, 51.7% black
5th: 76.3% D, 52.6% black
6th: 59.9% R, 66.7% white
7th: 57.9% R, 51.2% white
8th: 61.5% R, 65.1% white
9th: 71.0% R, 84.7% white
10th: 61.7% R, 73.7% white
11th: 65.1% R, 72.5% white
12th: 54.6% R, 58.8% white
13th: 71.0% D, 57.8% black
14th: 74.3% R, 81.7% white

Barrow's district loses a quarter of his black voters and they're replaced with the Augusta suburbs. Barrow's also cut out of his own district, so he'd have to move to Augusta or run in the 1st District. A Kingston-Barrow race would be slightly risky for the GOP, considering the district is made much more marginal with the inclusion of the black parts of Savannah, but it's still a R+10 district so Kingston should be fine (the new 12th district is R+10 as well).

Woodall's district might become more marginal later in the decade but he's apparently pushing hard to have a Gwinnett-only district; in this map the 7th is R + 17 so he's secure for a while.

Ultimately, a 10-4 map, with the four Democratic districts being VRA seats and all Republican districts being R +20 or more except Kingston's and Barrow's current districts, both R+10, but that's required to eliminate Barrow.

[Bacon King]

Shouldn't that last line say "both R+10, but" instead of "both R+20, but"?  

Corrected

I think that's mostly realistic, but that GA-07 is risky. Not in 2012, but by 2018 or 2020... Gwinnett County is changing fast, and the Georgia Republicans know it. They'll split it up across districts.

Strategically speaking they should do it, of course, but I'm not sure at this point if they will. Georgia's redistricting session meets next week so we'll have a better idea at what the GOP wants to do then.

Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering?

Well, not nearly bad enough to be an unlawful gerrymander.

Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering?

I don't see how. It's more compact than most black-majority districts, and for the most part respects county boundaries. I don't see how they could uphold something like NC-12 and toss out this version of GA-2.

A GA-02 that splits Macon along racial lines like that (along with other counties) has already been rejected in Georgia district court.

Curious here. What case?

[Bacon King]

Oh, wait, you're talking about Miller v. Johnson, doh.

I think this is much worse than my 2nd district:



Also the map-makers could just claim it's incumbency protection, which is perfectly permissible.

[Bacon King]

Which 40% Black seats in the deep South have a Black representative again?

Sanford Bishop won the 2nd District after the post- Miller v. Johnson 1995 redistricting; at the time it was 60% white.

[Bacon King]

A safe district for Bishop is definitely in the best interest of the GOP; they need a Democratic vote sink down there because without one Austin Scott and/or Westmoreland would be at risk.

[Bacon King]

Here's my best effort for a 11-3 plan...



1st: R+9, 64% white
2nd: R+8, 58% white
3rd: R+13, 64% white
4th: D+20, 50% black
5th: D+26, 59% black
6th: R+13, 65% white
7th: R+16, 61% white
8th: R+8, 59% white
9th: R+22, 80% white
10th: R+13, 71% white
11th: R+16, 69% white
12th: R+7, 61% white
13th: D+16, 55% black
14th: R+26, 83% white
(edit: PVI's are approximations because I dun goof'd; see next post)
Dubious legality, I think, under the VRA.

Bishop and Barrow both get cut out of their districts; the new 2nd and 12th favor the GOP but could still go Democratic in a bad year. The 8th district would see a Bishop vs. Austin Scott fight where the latter would be favored, but still under significant risk. The Kingston vs. Barrow matchup happens like in my other map.

The 3rd, 10th, and possibly even the 6th could all be at risk in a bad year later in the decade: Westmoreland would hate Macon being placed into his district, and would also have to deal with Coweta and Fayette trending to the left later in the decade; Broun would hate getting a second college town put into his district (GCSU in Milledgeville) and would face unfriendly trends in Henry, Newton, and Spaulding. Tom Price is a bit more insulated from demographic change thanks to the higher property values in north Fulton (Alpharetta/Roswell/etc.), but I've always considered it inevitable that Buckhead will eventually start voting Democratic like similar neighborhoods on the East Side of Atlanta already do.

So, yeah. A 11R-3D map that would possibly be a stable but could just as easily have 10D-4R delegation later in the decade.

[Bacon King]

You're overstating the PVIs in your calculation. PVI isn't Democratic minus Republican (or the reverse); it's the difference between one party's vote and the most recent result. The absolute maximum Democratic PVI, using 2008 as a base, is D+47; the absolute maximum Republican PVI is R+53.

On the assumption that 2008 was 53D-47R, a 60D-40R seat is D+7, not D+20 or D+14. A 60R-40D seat is R+13, not R+20 or R+26.

Haha, wow, thanks Verily. All these years I've been entirely misunderstood what PVI meant. All I can think to say is, "derp."

[Bacon King]

I would consider sacrificing compactness, in favor of, say, swapping Hall and Clarke Counties.

Not realistic. The state leadership won't do anything that could marginalize its Hall County CD pet project, especially not for Broun of all people. Besides, such a swap would be unforgivably ugly unless you cut into the northern part of that 12th district, and doing so would essentially be granting it to Barrow.

[Bacon King]

Done very easily. I kept Waycross in the district to minimize county splits and because it looked uglier without it. The district's 54.9% McCain, 44.4% Obama. Cook PVI: R+7.

[Bacon King]

What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included?

That part of Lowndes County has 48,463 people, is 64.2% white, and voted 61.2% for McCain. Only the two precincts on the district boundary east of Valdosta proper voted for Obama (which I included in the district for aesthetic reasons and to get the population up to quota without needing another county split).

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Unless the map is a gerrymandered monstrosity I don't see how Barrow can go down without pushing his district out of Chatham entirely. I mean, it's entirely possible that the GOP could play it safe with a 9-5 split (or target Bishop instead, but that's a lot riskier for Austin Scott's district plus there's potential VRA legal issues). If they want to target Barrow though, and they do of course, it can't be done without pushing his district out of Chatham.

And yeah, Kingston would definitely be safer with more Republican counties like Wayne, Brantley, Pierce, etc., but he's insisted on keeping Moody AFB in his district, which is in the northeast corner of Lowndes. I'm assuming he's eyeing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as his next step towards Chairman of Appropriations, which he wants really badly.

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Of course, and thank you! Always great to have more people involved around here. If you haven't discovered it yet, Dave's redistricting app is the perfect tool to use. It has precinct-level Census 2010 data for every state, and precinct-level election data for about half the states.

[Bacon King]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

Georgia's current map was drawn with a maximum deviation of 0.01%; under 2010 census numbers that'd be plus or minus seventy people. When I draw my maps I keep deviation under 500 though I'll make it less than that if I can.

Also, everyone, as an aside, note that Georgia law limits splitting precincts between districts unless it's absolutely necessary for population equality- I only know of four precinct splits in the current map (one each in Lowndes, Newton, Henry, and Baldwin Counties).