New Jersey 2013

[The Economist]

Chris Christie will win by a considerable margin in 2013, and his reformer image will be why. Northeast Republicans like him will do well and continue to do well for some time if only because after years and decades of Democratic rule, the Northeast has been decaying (for lack of a better word).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Booker won't run against Christie and that's pretty much obvious to anyone that is paying attention.

I've been paying attention as much as anybody, my roommate is a school teacher in Newark and I read like a hundred articles on Booker's blizzard efforts when I was stuck in California as a result of the blizzard.

And I can say that I'd have my doubts about what you just said.  Booker backed Christie's property tax relief, but that doesn't mean they can't be electoral opponents

It's not a "paying attention" thing. It's an understanding Essex County politics thing.

Christie is backed by the Essex County Democratic machine -- he has incredibly strong ties to North Ward powerbroker Adubado, who made Booker, not to mention his ties with Essex County Exec DiVincenzo.

New Jersey politics is weird. When it comes to the machines, partisanship doesn't matter so long as you're getting what you want. And believe me, Essex County Democrats are getting what they want.

I read that in a New Yorker article about Christie. When I tried to explain it to Phil he got mad because he thought I tried to impugn his idol's integrity by tying him with all those sleazy Dem bosses.

Notice that Mr. Moderate said "backed" by the bosses, not owned like a certain other idiot was saying he was.

You don't try to explain anything. You do your hack routine and spew your hatred of Christie because he is a "big, fat meanie." Sounds like someone was traumatized during childhood...

Yeah, whatever floats your boat.

[ag]

Chris Christie will win by a considerable margin in 2013, and his reformer image will be why. Northeast Republicans like him will do well and continue to do well for some time if only because after years and decades of Democratic rule, the Northeast has been decaying (for lack of a better word).

Just as a reminder, Republicans have been governors, or are governors, or will be governors, in the following Northeast states within the last 2 decades (I include every continuous Republican period that ends in 1991 or later):

ME 1987-1995, 2011- ; also I 1995-2003
NH 1983-1997, 2003-2005
VT 1991, 2003-2011
MA 1991-2007
RI 1985-1991, 1995-2011; also I 2011-
CT 1995-2011; also I 1991-1995
NY 1995-2006
NJ 1994-2002, 2010-
PA 1995-2003, 2011-
WV 1997-2001
MD 2003-2007
DE 1977-1993

Except for ME (which also had an Independent governor in 1995-2003) and the last 3 states, which are arguably not very Northeastern, anyway, there doesn't seem to be a shortage of periods of Republican governance, does there? In CT, for one, the first Dem governor in 20 years is just starting.

In fact, if we count just the years of partisan control since 1991 we have:

ME 4R, 8D, 8ID, now R
NH 8R 12 D, now D
VT 9R, 11D, now D
MA 16R, 4D, now D
RI 16R, 4D, now I
CT 16R, 0D, 4I, now D
NY 12R, 8D, now D
NJ 9R, 11D, now R
PA 8R, 12D, now R
WV 4R, 16D, now D
MD 4R, 16D, now D
DE 2R, 18D now D

[fezzyfestoon]

Christie - 42%
Booker - 42%

According to PPP

Booker has a ridiculous 46%-16% favorable-unfavorable rating.

[krazen1211]

Booker won't run against Christie and that's pretty much obvious to anyone that is paying attention.

I've been paying attention as much as anybody, my roommate is a school teacher in Newark and I read like a hundred articles on Booker's blizzard efforts when I was stuck in California as a result of the blizzard.

And I can say that I'd have my doubts about what you just said.  Booker backed Christie's property tax relief, but that doesn't mean they can't be electoral opponents

It's not a "paying attention" thing. It's an understanding Essex County politics thing.

Christie is backed by the Essex County Democratic machine -- he has incredibly strong ties to North Ward powerbroker Adubado, who made Booker, not to mention his ties with Essex County Exec DiVincenzo.

New Jersey politics is weird. When it comes to the machines, partisanship doesn't matter so long as you're getting what you want. And believe me, Essex County Democrats are getting what they want.

This, with the addition that Christie has ties with Norcross as well. Re-elected easily in 2013. Booker will take the 2014 Senate seat if he wants it.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I also think Booker declines to oppose Christie. Chris' 40% approval rating in Essex-Hudson is telling, in an area where he only got like 28% of the vote. I think he'll be close in both those counties (carrying slightly Democratic towns like Bayonne) against whatever Central/South Jersey "Legislative Leader" the Dems put up. Overall, I think a bigger win than 2009 with a much-bigger middle class Latino/almost universal non-public sector white ethnic vote.

I also expect the GOP to win  back at least two Northeast NJ legislative seats when the seats are "unpacked" and Republican votes come out of Dick Codey's and Nick Scutari's Senate districts.

[fezzyfestoon]

First, let me express my deep condolences for being a Pulaski Skyway driver.  That's the last thing I'd want to identify with.

I think you're right in pointing out Christie's Essex-Hudson standing.  For a Republican he's in uncharted territory there.  What I'm suspecting is that he's becoming the North Jersey guy of choice and 2013 will be a North-South battle.  That's always been prominent in intra-party leadership balance, but now it seems like Christie could be throwing things out of whack between parties.  Like Mr. Moderate said, he's got strong ties in Essex County.  That includes Booker and his main supporters.  I can't find any polls separating it by region, but I'm sure Christie is doing unusually well in the urban North and that would likely only increase come election time due to his ties.  I really doubt he can be defeated in 2013, especially without Booker running.  Obviously a lot will change between now and then, but if Christie's stockpiling of North Jersey allies indicates anything, he's sitting pretty already.  That combined with the low turnout there in 2009 could put the Democrats in an awkward position not being able to take 100,000+ margins out of Essex/Hudson for granted.  We'll see, 2013 will be very interesting regardless.

[RRusso1982]

Depends on where Christie's numbers are in late 2012.  If he's popular Booker will step back, hope Christie wins, and wait for 2017.