2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)

[phk]

New Hampshire was one of H.W. Bush's best states in 88'.

I would likely go ahead and add MN, MI and PA to the D column.

[phk]

New Hampshire was one of H.W. Bush's best states in 88'.

The 1988 election was during the Reagan administration...

I would likely go ahead and add MN, MI and PA to the D column.

I would have to disagree with you there...all of these states had MASSIVE Republican trends in 2008...compare the 2000 PA map to the 2008 PA map, all of those southeastern counties going for the GOP.  Its not unthinkable than PA could be in-play during the 2012 cycle.  

In 2004, Kerry got less than 50% in MN so I think that it is not out of the question that MN could go for the GOP in 2012.

Michigan is the most democratic of the states you mentioned, but should still be considered a swing state for the reasons I stated above: demographic changes.  

Kerry got more than 50% in MN.

John Kerry/John Edwards      
1,445,014    
51.09%   

George W. Bush/Richard Cheney      
1,346,695    
47.61%

It's basically a Democratic-leaning state that has a high floor for the GOP.

It could theoretically flip in an Obama-style GOP victory.