All states that went for McCain in 2008 will vote for the Republican candidate in 2012. Based on reapportionment following the 2010 Census, this brings the Republican Candidate to
179 electoral votes.
Indiana,
North Carolina, and
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District were the three "flukes" of 2008 and as it stands now I would say that they are
Likely Republican. That brings the Republican's EV's to
206 Electoral Votes.
Demographic changes in
Nevada,
Colorado, and
New Mexico have made these states slightly more Democratic. This is evident by how, in 2010, Nevada and Colorado both reelected Democrats to the U.S. Senate. These states, by no means safe for Obama, are
likley to vote Democratic again in 2012.
Virginia and
Florida are two states are demographically more alike than different that both voted for Obama in 2008 despite historically tending to support Republicans. Virginia elected a Republican governor in 2009 and Florida did the same in 2010. Polls suggest that the 2012 Virginia Senate Election is highly competitive. These states seem to be trending Republican, let's put them in the
Lean Republican category. This brings the Republican candidate's total to
248 Electoral Votes.
New Hampshire is the least "swingy" of the "swing states". With the exception of the 2000 election it has voted for Democrats since the Reagan Administration. Despite the fact that it elected a Republican Senator in 2010, Republican presidential candidates (i.e. Romney, Palin, Gingrich) are not polling very well in the state at this time. I would say that NH is
"lean Democrat".
Minnesota,
Iowa,
Wisconsin,
Michigan,
Ohio, and
Pennsylvania are all states that went for Obama in 2008 and have historically supported Democrats. They are also the states that have been affected the most by the economic downturn. In 2010, Republicans won Senate seats in three of these states, two of those wins were pick-ups. Demographically they are becoming more friendly to Republicans because there voters are aging and not as many minorities call these states home. However, unionized labor remains very heavily rooted in these states. In 2012, these will be the
swing states.
The Green States, who have a combined total of 80 Electoral Votes, will be where the battle for the presidency is waged in 2010.
Based on this map, Republicans have 248 EV's, Democrats--210, Undecided/"Swing"--80...