2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH) (user search)
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  2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)  (Read 7261 times)
Del Tachi
Republican95
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Posts: 17,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

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« on: December 27, 2010, 10:05:58 PM »

All states that went for McCain in 2008 will vote for the Republican candidate in 2012.  Based on reapportionment following the 2010 Census, this brings  the Republican Candidate to 179 electoral votes.   

IndianaNorth Carolina, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District were the three "flukes" of 2008 and as it stands now I would say that they are Likely Republican.  That brings the Republican's EV's to 206 Electoral Votes.

Demographic changes in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have made these states slightly more Democratic.  This is evident by how, in 2010, Nevada and Colorado both reelected Democrats to the U.S. Senate.  These states, by no means safe for Obama, are likley to vote Democratic again in 2012.

Virginia and Florida are two states are demographically more alike than different that both voted for Obama in 2008 despite historically tending to support Republicans.  Virginia elected a Republican governor in 2009 and Florida did the same in 2010.  Polls suggest that the 2012 Virginia Senate Election is highly competitive.  These states seem to be trending Republican, let's put them in the Lean Republican category.  This brings the Republican candidate's total to 248 Electoral Votes.

New Hampshire is the least "swingy" of the "swing states".  With the exception of the 2000 election it has voted for Democrats since the Reagan Administration.  Despite the fact that it elected a Republican Senator in 2010, Republican presidential candidates (i.e. Romney, Palin, Gingrich) are not polling very well in the state at this time.  I would say that NH is "lean Democrat".

Minnesota, Iowa, WisconsinMichigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are all states that went for Obama in 2008 and have historically supported Democrats.  They are also the states that have been affected the most by the economic downturn.  In 2010, Republicans won Senate seats in three of these states, two of those wins were pick-ups.  Demographically they are becoming more friendly to Republicans because there voters are aging and not as many minorities call these states home.  However, unionized labor remains very heavily rooted in these states.  In 2012, these will be the swing states.



The Green States, who have a combined total of 80 Electoral Votes, will be where the battle for the presidency is waged in 2010. 

Based on this map, Republicans have 248 EV's, Democrats--210, Undecided/"Swing"--80...
 
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Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2010, 01:04:29 AM »

New Hampshire was one of H.W. Bush's best states in 88'.

The 1988 election was during the Reagan administration...

I would likely go ahead and add MN, MI and PA to the D column.

I would have to disagree with you there...all of these states had MASSIVE Republican trends in 2008...compare the 2000 PA map to the 2008 PA map, all of those southeastern counties going for the GOP.  Its not unthinkable than PA could be in-play during the 2012 cycle. 

In 2004, Kerry got less than 50% in MN so I think that it is not out of the question that MN could go for the GOP in 2012.

Michigan is the most democratic of the states you mentioned, but should still be considered a swing state for the reasons I stated above: demographic changes. 
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