2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)

[Dgov]

You see, in NC at 2008 it was "cool" to like Obama. And the colleges did a great job at getting young kids to go out and vote for him. Now when this kids get out in the real world where mommy and daddy aren't paying for everything then they will start voting Republican.

But not all generations get more conservative/republican as they age. Look at the Gen Xers who were born in the 1960s. They started out as a very republican generation as Reagan won 58-59 percent of the under 30 vote in 1984. As time went on they became more of a swing bloc voting for Bush in 88 (but by 5 points less) backing Clinton both times, breaking even between Bush and Gore, voting for Bush in 04, and for Obama in 08.
[/quote]

Actually, voting 58-59% for Reagan in 1984 would make them a swing constituency.   Reagan won 58.8% of the national vote, so they'd be at the national average.

[Dgov]

North Carolina I think will become a safe democratic state by the end of the decade, considering Obama got 74 percent of the under 30 vote in North Carolina.

Young voters get older, and when they do they start voting more Republican. I still think NC has the potential of being a swing state in '12 though. Indiana however probably goes back to safe GOP column... unless Palin is the nominee.

That is true to some extent. But 74 percent? That is way too big of a lead to cut into.

Well, according to PPP, the Republicans did just that.  Even against Palin (whom he beats statewide by 14 points, and wins in every age category against) he's only up by 28 in a registered voter poll.

Against Huckabee (who he loses to by 1), he only wins them by 9 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1222.pdf