2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)

[zorkpolitics]

Almost every President who has won reelection has expanded his margin, since Americans in general want their Presidents to succeed and give them time to do so.  So if this holds true for Obama, he will win all his 2008 states and the "swing states" would be the states he most narrowly won or lost: IN, NC, and MO, maybe FL and MT.

But I think its more likely Obama's margin will shrink from 7% in 2008 to less than 3%, that moves IN, NC, FL, and OH to the Republican candidate (and 254 Electoral Votes for the GOP), and the too close to call swing states would likely be: VA, IA, NH, and maybe CO. 

So to win the GOP candidate will need 15 EV from VA, IA, NH, and CO.