2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)

[DS0816]

Lots of swing states are also bellwethers. Right now, I'd say four of them qualify: Ohio (voting with the winner in every election since 1896, minus 1944 and 1960); Florida (voting with the winner in every election since 1928, except for 1960 and 1992); Nevada (voting with the winner in every election since 1912, sans 1976); and New Mexico (voting with the winner in every election since its statehood and its first election, in 1912, with exceptions of 1976 and 2000).

Missouri (voting with the winner in every election since 1904, with exceptions of 1956 and 2008) is a declining bellwether, and neighboring Iowa (siding with the popular-vote winner in all of the 1990s and 2000s elections, with a margin quite close to the national margin) is a rising bellwether. And I'd say Colorado (No. 1 closest margin to that of the national level, in 1988; No. 5 closest in 2004, just 2.21% higher; No. 2 closest in 2008, 1.69% higher) is a bellwether on the rise (some think Colo. has already arrived; I'm inclined not to argue). And Virginia (No. 1 in 2008, just 0.96% less that Obama's national 7.26%, and it was also his No. 1 closest for the voting percent) must be considered, because its neighbor, Tennessee, used to be a bellwether (voting with the winner in all since 1912, except for 1924, 1960, and 2008; it now has a strong partisan ID for Republicans) — and some think the Commonwealth of Virginia may be the new bellwether. (Noteworthy: Colo. and Va. have voted the same in all presidential elections since 1948, with the exception of 1992.)

If Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012, as the 44th president of the United States, I want to see if it involves carrying again Indiana and North Carolina. In 2008, he narrowly pulled them across his finish line. So, we need the next presidential election to get a better sense of their swing.


Question: Had Hillary Clinton been the 2008 Democratic nominee for president of the United States, she would've won Arkansas (which gave George W. Bush a margin approximately 1.50% above Va.). John Kerry had 49% support of females, losing them by just one point. Hillary would've had closer to 59%. That 40% of males for Kerry — duplicated for Obama (who lost women, with 39%, making it clear they rejected him) — would've shifted Democratic. Clinton would've easily flipped the State of Arkansas into her column. Does anyone think the margin in Arkansas would've been close to the national one for Hillary Clinton?