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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)
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Author Topic: 2012 Swing States (NC, VA, IN, CO, NV, MO, FL, NH)  (Read 6986 times)
The Economist
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« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2011, 02:52:56 am »

To answer the original question, assuming the election is a nail biter, the better question is what states wonít emerge as swing states.

Iíd put on the top of the list Michigan. Democratic every year since 1988, it has unions, the automakers are recovering, and I canít see them voting for free trade Republicans when many blame free trade for their woes. Itíd take a really good case to make to convince Michigan to vote GOP.

Minnesota and Iowa, sort of the same boat.

In a nailbiter election, Indiana and North Carolina will be the first states to return to the GOP. Obama had the resources to compete in both states and in a much closer election, theyíre more likely to follow traditional patterns. And I donít really believe either state would be close in 2012 if Obama is in a tight re-election struggle. Both are still light red states at worst (for the Republicans).
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dussnttn
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« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2011, 12:19:36 am »

to best understand the election to come in 2012 one must understand the new dynamics of the senate class 1 seat from tn for which I vote for the outsider this time a fellow named durkan yeah that is who I will shed my vote for Durkan for Senate tn. He understands that the start treaty should have been left the the junior senators sworn in on the 4th and that it was morally uncomprehendable to sign for 23 billion split between the 6000 wealthiest citizens in tax breaks.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #27 on: January 07, 2011, 01:15:35 pm »

You see, in NC at 2008 it was "cool" to like Obama. And the colleges did a great job at getting young kids to go out and vote for him. Now when this kids get out in the real world where mommy and daddy aren't paying for everything then they will start voting Republican.

But not all generations get more conservative/republican as they age. Look at the Gen Xers who were born in the 1960s. They started out as a very republican generation as Reagan won 58-59 percent of the under 30 vote in 1984. As time went on they became more of a swing bloc voting for Bush in 88 (but by 5 points less) backing Clinton both times, breaking even between Bush and Gore, voting for Bush in 04, and for Obama in 08.

Actually, voting 58-59% for Reagan in 1984 would make them a swing constituency.   Reagan won 58.8% of the national vote, so they'd be at the national average.

okay but while the Gen Xers didn't get more liberal as they aged, they sure as hell didn't get more conservative.
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But in 1980, young voters voted for Reagan by 60%, when Reagan won just over 50% of the vote.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #28 on: January 07, 2011, 01:39:26 pm »

It's hard to say, though. With the Republican party moving so far to the right, arguably they would have to be getting more conservative, otherwise they'd be solidly Democratic.
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