US House Redistricting: Texas

[minionofmidas]

I meant Luther Vandross, of course.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.

Martin is a name used in Germany?

Ever heard of Luther?

Hmmmm, I don't think or remember things well immediately after waking up.

[Sam Spade]

This is the last map I'm going to do until the new numbers come out.  It is really four maps, all of which "pack" Austin, one based on an Odessa-San Antonio TX-23 with 63% Hispanic and no Webb intrusion, the second based on an Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23 with 63% Hispanic and a Webb split.  The other two maps give TX-27 60% Hispanic instead of 63% Hispanic with this configuration.

Also, I saw an earlier comment on precincts after new numbers come out - Texas counties almost never redraw their precincts, rather they split current precincts up (when they become too big, I guess).  I should know why but I don't.

Goals:
1) 24 safe GOP seats (McCain 60.00% or greater)
2) 10 safe DEM seats (Obama packs)
3) 2 marginal GOP seats (TX-23 = McCain 55%; TX-27 = McCain 52% (if 63% Hispanic) or McCain 54% (if 60% Hispanic)
4) All incumbents get a seat.  (Exceptions: Canseco has to go into TX-36, where his greatest danger will be an Anglo GOP.  In the Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23, Conaway has to go into TX-23 (unless he's scared, and he may well be - he would certainly b!tch), leaving TX-11 open)
5) 8 Hispanic-Majority seats, 2 Black-majority seats, 2 Minority-Majority seats.
6) No safe GOP seat has greater than 29.50% Hispanic population to avoid claims of dilution. (Exception: In the Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23 with TX-27 = 60% Hispanic, TX-14 (Paul) has 30.90% Hispanic.  It would require a major redesign of a lot of other Houston area seats (and possibly TX-17 and TX-21) to get this one right, so I passed.  Let them complain - it doesn't make any difference as to the result in TX-14).
7) All deviations under 1,000.

TX-X = Odessa only, TX-23 and TX-27 = 63% Hispanic
TX-Xa = Odessa + Midland, TX-23 and TX-27 = 63% Hispanic
TX-Xb = Odessa only, TX-27= 60% Hispanic
TX-Xc = Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60% Hispanic

I think that's about it.

[Sam Spade]

CODE
a) Incumbent
b) McCain %, Obama %
c) White %, Black %, Hispanic %, Asian %, Other %
d) Comment

TX-1
a) Gohmert
b) McCain 69, Obama 30 (previous McCain 69, Obama 31)
c) White 70, Black 20, Hispanic 8, Asian 2
d) Basically the same as before, except it takes in Texarkana now and removes parts south.

TX-2
a) Poe
b) McCain 63, Obama 36 (previous McCain 60, Obama 40)
c) White 63, Hispanic 24, Black 8, Asian 5
d) Now a Harris County only seat, it wraps around the city of Houston, with the most important GOP parts being in NW Houston.  I believe Poe lives here; if not, he lives in neighboring TX-35, no biggie.

TX-3
a) Johnson
b) McCain 61 (60.95), Obama 38 (previous McCain 57, Obama 42)
c) White 77, Hispanic 9, Asian 9, Black 5
d) Now a Collin County only seat, it stretches much further north to pick up virgin suburban territory.

TX-4
a) Hall
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 69, Obama 30)
c) White 66, Hispanic 16, Black 12, Asian 5
d) Hall's CD moves away from east Texas to pick up some inner Dallas suburbs, including Garland.  Splitting these suburbs east of US-75 is key to making a good Dallas gerrymander.

TX-5
a) Hensarling
b) McCain 62, Obama 37 (previous McCain 63, Obama 36)
c) White 71, Hispanic 15, Black 12, Asian 3
d) Hensarling's CD shifts further west to pick up some more inner Dallas suburbs and even some Waco suburbs.  I'm pretty sure he lives here.  Anyway, the key here is keeping fast-growing Kaufman County in its midst.

TX-6
a) Barton
b) McCain 61 (61.16), Obama 38 (previous McCain 60, Obama 40)
c) White 74, Hispanic 14, Black 9, Asian 4
d) The areas in Tarrant and Dallas County are quite marginal (mostly taken from TX-24).  The areas in the three counties to the South are not.

TX-7 (Odessa only)
a) Culberson
b) McCain 61 (61.00), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 64, Hispanic 23, Asian 8, Black 5
d) Pushing the McCain % up is achieved by taking in virgin suburban territory in NW Houston where whitey is.

TX-7a & TX-7c (Odessa + Midland)
a) Culberson
b) McCain 61 (60.56), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 64, Hispanic 23, Asian 8, Black 5
d) The only change here is made because TX-22 needed a little more McCain %.

TX-7b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Culberson
b) McCain 61 (60.50), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 63, Hispanic 23, Asian 8, Black 5
d) Ditto with TX-7a.

TX-8
a) Brady
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 74, Obama 26)
c) White 70, Black 16, Hispanic 11, Asian 3
d) TX-8 moves to take in all old parts of TX-2 (including Jefferson County) and Montgomery is split in half.  So is the city of Galveston (not necessary, but amusing).  Montgomery is too useful for the GOP not to split it up. 

TX-9
a) Green
b) Obama 73, McCain 27 (previous Obama 77, McCain 23)
c) Hispanic 34, Hispanic 32, White 21, Asian 13, Other 1
d) Very similar to before, except it heads further into Fort Bend.

TX-10 & TX-10b (Odessa only)
a) McCaul
b) McCain 61 (60.58), Obama 38 (previous McCain 55, Obama 44)
c) White 76, Hispanic 18, Asian 4, Black 3
d) Instead of heading east this time, we head west to pick up sizable chunks of German Texas, San Angelo and assorted rural counties.  And we end up with a safer CD.  I think I have McCaul, but if not, he can just move somewhere else in Austin.

TX-10a & TX-10c (Odessa + Midland)
a) McCaul
b) McCain 60 (60.00), Obama 39 (previous McCain 55, Obama 44)
c) White 76, Hispanic 17, Asian 4, Black 2
d) Minor changes - the CD moves further south to pick up even more of German Texas.

TX-11 (Odessa only)
a) Conaway
b) McCain 68, Obama 31 (previous McCain 76, Obama 24)
c) White 64, Hispanic 20, Black 13, Asian 3, Other 1
d) This fajita strip is compressed a bit, and makes sure to pick up Fort Hood/Killeen to the east.

TX-11a (Odessa + Midland)
a) None
b) McCain 68, Obama 31 (previous McCain 76, Obama 24)
c) White 64, Hispanic 20, Black 12, Asian 3, Other 1
d) In exchange for dropping Midland, a whole bunch of rural counties are picked up, making Abilene the population center of the CD.  Conaway lives in TX-23 in this makeup, so no incumbent!

TX-12
a) Granger
b) McCain 62, Obama 38 (previous McCain 63, Obama 36)
c) White 74, Hispanic 14, Black 9, Asian 4
d) Picks up territory from TX-6 and TX-13, in exchange for dropping Wise County.  In actuality, this is rather cosmetic.

[Sam Spade]

TX-13
a) Thornberry
b) McCain 71, Obama 28 (previous McCain 77, Obama 23)
c) White 79, Hispanic 11, Black 7, Asian 3
d) I figure if we have border districts to the south, why not have a border district in the north. 

TX-14 (Odessa only)
a) Paul
b) McCain 63, Obama 36 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.49), Black 7, Asian 3
d) In order to maximize McCain votes in TX-27, you have to split Corpus Christi and San Patricio - there's basically no way around it.  The McCain % in TX-14 is never the problem, since all of Brazoria County is included in TX-14 this time, but the Hispanic % is a bit high for my tastes.  Still pretty compact.

TX-14a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Paul
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.47), Black 7, Asian 3
d) The Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23 pushes everything further east to get under 29.50% Hispanic.

TX-14b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Paul
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.48), Black 8, Asian 3
d) Now things get ugly as the necessary expansion of TX-27 east to pick up white areas gathers steam.

TX-14c (Odessa + Midland), TX-27 = 60%)
a) Paul
b) McCain 64, Obama 36 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 58, Hispanic 31 (30.90), Black 7, Asian 3
d) When I realized that I'd have to make major changes to the Houston suburbs to get it down to 29.50% Hispanic, I stopped.  It can be done, however.

TX-15 (Odessa only)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 70, McCain 29 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 88, White 11, Asian 1
d) Not that bad really.  Most of the population is Hidalgo County and Hinojosa's home is here too.  Brownsville is included.  Not Harlingen - for rather obvious reasons (it has whites).

TX-15a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 70, McCain 29 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 88, White 11, Asian 1
d) Changes are cosmetic.

TX-15b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 71, McCain 28 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 89, White 10, Asian 1
d) Not much change. Yawn.

TX-15c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 72, McCain 27 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 90, White 9, Asian 1
d) No changes worth mentioning.

TX-16
a) Reyes
b) Obama 65, McCain 34 (previous Obama 66, McCain 34)
c) Hispanic 77, White 18, Black 3, Asian 2, Other 1
d) Basically the same as before.  There is really no reason to play around with El Paso, except at the margins, unless you want to do something like Martin did.

TX-17 (Odessa only)
a) Flores
b) McCain 65, Obama 34 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 68, Hispanic 16, Black 13, Asian 3
d) This complete redesign of TX-17 takes advantage of Flores' base to swipe a bit of Austin.  The northern half of Montgomery County is added for good measure, but the heart of the CD will be Bryan-College Station.

TX-17a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Flores
b) McCain 64, Obama 34 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 67, Hispanic 17, Black 13, Asian 3
d) Changes are cosmetic to pick up a few more Hispanics from TX-21.

TX-17b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Flores
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 66, Hispanic 18, Black 13, Asian 3
d) The requirements of TX-14 make this iteration a bit ugly.  Kinda looks like a misshapened bat.

TX-17c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Flores
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 67, Hispanic 17, Black 13, Asian 3
d) Only cosmetic changes here.  Major changes would have been required to get TX-14 down to 29.50%, which I didn't do.

TX-18
a) Lee
b) Obama 84, McCain 15 (previous Obama 77, McCain 22)
c) Black 53, Hispanic 26, White 16, Asian 4, Other 1
d) This is about as black as I can make the annoying b!tch's CD without making it very ugly.

TX-19 & TX=19b (Odessa only)
a) Neugebauer
b) McCain 73, Obama 26 (previous McCain 72, Obama 27)
c) White 64, Hispanic 28, Black 6, Asian 2
d) So I decided to do something which will never happen in real life - the Amarillo and Lubbock CD!

TX-19a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Neugebauer
b) McCain 73, Obama 26 (previous McCain 72, Obama 27)
c) White 64, Hispanic 28, Black 6, Asian 2
d) The change here is a county in the south of the CD or something.  No big deal.

TX-20
a) Gonzalez
b) Obama 68, McCain 31 (previous Obama 63, McCain 36)
c) Hispanic 68, White 19, Black 10, Asian 2, Other 1
d) TX-20 picks up a chunk of the former TX-23 areas, as required.

TX-21 (Odessa only)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.76), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 61, Hispanic 29 (29.46), Black 7, Asian 3
d) TX-21 is radically altered in these two maps.  Instead of picking up Austin and German Texas, this version goes southeast to pick up Victoria.  Which actually works quite nicely, as the San Antonio suburbs will still control.

TX-21a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.78), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.48), Black 7, Asian 3
d) Changes are cosmetic.

TX-21b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.87), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 61, Hispanic 29 (29.47), Black 7, Asian 3
d) Extends "more literally" to the southeast, but the actual changes really don't mean much.

TX-21c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.97), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.45), Black 7, Asian 3
d) Changes are still cosmetic, actually.

TX-22 (Odessa only)
a) Olson
b) McCain 61 (60.52), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) A nicely compact CD which takes in all of Fort Bend not in TX-9 and some west Houston suburbs.  Of all of the GOP CDs, this one would worry me the most in the future, but not *that* much.

TX-22a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Olson
b) McCain 60 (60.10), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) The changes address problems in TX-14, but are still cosmetic.

TX-22b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Olson
b) McCain 60 (60.18), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) Changes are cosmetic.

TX-22c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Olson
b) McCain 60 (60.00), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) Keeps getting uglier, but the changes really aren't important.

[Sam Spade]

TX-23 (Odessa only)
a) Open
b) McCain 55 (55.26), Obama 44 (previous Obama 51, McCain 48)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.20), White 33, Black 3, Asian 1
d) In the Odessa-only version, TX-23 picks up a number of rural counties north of Odessa (almost all the way to Lubbock) along the border, and then goes east at Del Rio to pick up some of the inner San Antonio Hispanic precincts.  I consider this version a safer VRA test b/c Odessa and San Antonio have been combined in past CDs and are presently combined in Senate District 19.  Going north into west Texas will probably be complained about, but there are Hispanics here (of course, they vote more GOP than the ones in Maverick County, but let the challenge occur).  I do not, however, consider this a safer GOP hold than version 2 because 1) there will be no incumbent; 2) Odessa is not growing (unlike Midland or Laredo); 3) the Dems have a potential very dangerous candidate in Pete Gallego in the Trans-Pecos, who represents a lot of the *swing* area of this CD (his state Rep seat is entirely included - note that I don't include Uresti in this description, as he would need much more of Hispanic Bexar to win).

TX-23a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Conaway
b) McCain 55 (54.83), Obama 44 (previous Obama 51, McCain 48)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.04), White 32, Black 3, Asian 1
d) In this version, all of San Antonio, strongly GOP Uvalde and Medina County is moved to TX-28 and TX-36 in exchange for Midland, Maverick County and a little over half of Webb.  Thus, this becomes a much more Hispanic version of the original DeLay-mander.  The problem is that you have to convince Conaway to take a potential problem seat - although Odessa and Midland accounts for about a fourth of the population and about a third of the votes.  Cuellar will probably take the safe road - and run in the southern Webb seat.  Of course, I view this one as more VRA problematic.  You can get it down to 60% and avoid the Webb split, but I didn't make that one.

TX-24
a) Marchant
b) McCain 62, Obama 37 (McCain 55, Obama 44)
c) White 72, Hispanic 13, Asian 8, Black 6
d) A nice compact DFW CD that swings west into GOP Tarrant County territory.  Removed most of the rest of the CD into new TX-33.

TX-25
a) Doggett
b) Obama 74, McCain 24 (previous Obama 59, McCain 40)
c) White 47, Hispanic 34, Black 12, Asian 6
d) Packed every Austin Democrat into this CD as I thought I could.

TX-26
a) Burgess
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 77, Hispanic 12, Asian 5, Black 5
d) This DFW CD snakes around a little bit, but is still basically Denton and Tarrant County-based.  Getting rid of minority precincts makes it even more GOP, as expected.

TX-27 (Odessa only)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 52 (52.07), Obama 47 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.18), White 33, Asian 2, Black 2
d) I combed through literally every precinct in Hidalgo and Cameron counties looking for the best Hispanic-GOP ratios, and this is the best I could do, after recognizing that getting to Brownsville is not worth it.  And then I had to do the same for Nueces, splitting the thing in two.  And this is still about the best I can do.  Hey, it's still a lot better than Obama 53, McCain 46.

TX-27a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 52 (52.18), Obama 47 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.23), White 32, Asian 2, Black 2
d) Very similar, except moved to the east because of TX-28.  I also think my division is slightly better this time (by hundredths of percentage points, I know, but still...)

TX-27b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 54 (54.17), Obama 45 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 60 (60.27), White 36, Asian 2, Black 2
d) Now it extends further to the east to take in some more white precincts.  Yawn.  Percentage is up to 54%, but that's about the best you can do.

TX-27c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 54 (53.88), Obama 45 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 60 (60.15), White 35, Asian 2, Black 2
d) Last iteration of this CD looks the cleanest, actually.

TX-28 (Odessa only)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 74, McCain 25 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 93, White 6, Black 1
d) This version of TX-28 looks rather clean, actually.  A nice border CD, and also much safer than before, btw.

TX-28a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 72, McCain 28 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 89, White 9, Asian 1, Black 1
d) Lots of good visual imagery here.  Consider this the son of DeLay-mander, as half of Webb County extends north to take in a number of Bexar County barrio precincts (but not enough for Ciro to win).

TX-28b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 74, McCain 26 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 92, White 7, Asian 1
d) Basically the same as original, with little changes to fit the needs of TX-27.

TX-28c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 71, McCain 28 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 89, White 10, Asian 1, Black 1
d) Same as original, with changes for TX-27's sake.

TX-29
a) Green
b) Obama 68, McCain 32 (Obama 62, McCain 38)
c) Hispanic 67, White 18, Black 12, Asian 3
d) Not really much different than before, except more Democratic.

TX-30
a) Johnson
b) Obama 82, McCain 17 (previous Obama 82, McCain 18)
c) Black 51, White 25, Hispanic 20, Asian 3
d) Now extends to reach the blacks in Tarrant County.  Also now majority-black.

TX-31
a) Carter
b) McCain 60 (60.01), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 42)
c) White 74, Hispanic 15, Black 7, Asian 3
d) Not really much different than before, except Killeen and Fort Hood (and all points north are removed) in exchange for a couple of counties to the south.  Williamson County remains in full here, it's kind of hard to separate Carter from it without hurting him (since he lives in Round Rock).

TX-32
a) Sessions
b) McCain 60 (60.07), Obama 39 (previous McCain 53, Obama 46)
c) White 71, Hispanic 16, Asian 6, Black 6
d) Getting rid of the Hispanic precincts does wonders to the numbers.  Also adding half of Collin County, half of Grayson County and some of Denton works wonders as well.

TX-33
a) None
b) Obama 69, McCain 30
c) Hispanic 63 (63.16), White 21, Black 13, Asian 3
d) What an ugly looking strip of Hispanic minority-majority land.

TX-34
a) None
b) McCain 67, Obama 32
c) White 71, Black 16, Hispanic 11, Asian 2
d) The heart of Democratic Waco, with Nacogdoches and Lufkin included.  Let's see Chet Edwards make a comeback here!

TX-35
a) None
b) McCain 64, Obama 36
c) White 67, Hispanic 18, Black 10, Asian 5
d) Poe may be here, he may be in TX-2, whichever...  Kingwood plus Pasadena suburbs plus all of the parts of Galveston County where white people from Houston will probably head = safe GOP.

TX-36 (Odessa only)
a) Canseco
b) McCain 60 (60.05), Obama 39
c) White 66, Hispanic 27, Asian 3, Black 3
d) NW San Antonio plus German Texas and the more Republican parts of Hays County (well, it does include Texas State, so not exactly).  This is where Canseco resides (I'm pretty sure), so all he has to fear is an Anglo.  I made this a real San Antonio-centered CD to eliminate that possibility as much as possible while keeping the CD safe GOP.

TX-36a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Canseco
b) McCain 60 (60.10), Obama 39
c) White 65, Hispanic 28, Asian 3, Black 3
d) Replace German Texas for GOP Medina and Uvalde County.  Yawn.

[Sam Spade]

Would you post your entire map Sam, perhaps two maps, one for east Texas and one for the west, since Texas is so big?  Or you could do two that you append together like I did for Indiana; I have become so accomplished at that, that you can hardly see that I appended two screen shots together.

Or you could email me your Dave Bradlee drf data file, and I could put them up for you, making them your mappie with zooms all look so pretty - just gorgeous really.

I'll do that - tomorrow.  It will also require more like five to ten maps, not two. 

[Torie]

OK, but I suggest that you darken the colors by reducing the opacity level. Color choices for each CD are also important. But then you do have an artistic side I know.  You probably are a closet metrosexual.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So even this supposed uber-gerrymander creates a new Hispanic majority seat? Not that I'm surprised though.

[Sam Spade]

OK, but I suggest that you darken the colors by reducing the opacity level. Color choices for each CD are also important. But then you do have an artistic side I know.  You probably are a closet metrosexual.

My artistic side is completely musical and theatrical.  I have below zero visual sense though, really.  I go to the museum, but I can barely draw stick figures.  If you want to redesign the thing, feel free.

And I'm about as far from a metrosexual as possible.  As has been noted by many friends on many occasions. 

[Sam Spade]

So even this supposed uber-gerrymander creates a new Hispanic majority seat? Not that I'm surprised though.

You basically have to create one new Hispanic seat in Dallas - some GOP seats will be far too marginal without it.  You can create another San Antonio-Austin one to f-ck Doggett, but it's not necessary.  More than that is probably not going to be needed - I don't think Al Green's seat needs to be Hispanic-majority, and I don't think it can be anyway.

Let's face it - the previous map was a 21-10 GOP gerrymander with one marginal (TX-23).  GOPers wouldn't have considered Ortiz marginal in prior years.  The one the courts struck down was meant to be 22-10 GOP.

I don't really have to see the new Census numbers to know that 24 GOP seats can be created with almost any halfway competent gerrymander - and they can be ultra-safe too.  The problem is after that with the VRA.  It's nearly impossible to get it to 8 DEM seats under the VRA without having the courts strike down your map and I don't think trying to keep them to 9 seats will work either - playing with South Texas is rather problematic, you need decent margins, it's not really worth it under 52% McCain. 

So you pack ten Dems (the 9 already there, plus the new Dallas seat) and create the two most favorable Hispanic-majority seats you can (since you already hold two of them) for TX-23 and TX-27.  This is what is done above.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I mean I kind of figured that, but it results in the new seats being 3-1 GOP, which is only a +2. Then again shoring up Farenthold and making a Rodriguez comeback impossible might count as two more seats.

[Sam Spade]

I mean I kind of figured that, but it results in the new seats being 3-1 GOP, which is only a +2. Then again shoring up Farenthold and making a Rodriguez comeback impossible might count as two more seats.

I just don't think the Texas GOP can make all four new seats GOP with the VRA and all.  You basically have to shore up Farenthold (South Texas seats tend to act 2-4 points Dem PVI than they say, and I assume his seat is 2008 iteration only (ignoring 2004), meaning R/D+0, basically).  And I can't see how they think Canseco's seat will give you the "right" result every time.  It has to be majority Hispanic, and adding more Bexar is not going to up the percentage as much as you like - which is why the radical rethink.  Plus, the majority Hispanic CD in Dallas fixes a lot of problems for the next decade, which is why it'll be done.

I have to think that the Texas GOP basically views Farenthold's seat as a gift, but always thought that Canseco's seat should have been theirs.  Therefore, since the prior map is basically drawn as a 22-10 gerrymander with a lucky bounce (Farenthold), a 26-10 gerrymander should be viewed as a likely end game and not a negative.  But who knows.

[jimrtex]

Also, I saw an earlier comment on precincts after new numbers come out - Texas counties almost never redraw their precincts, rather they split current precincts up (when they become too big, I guess).  I should know why but I don't.

Changes in election precincts and polling places are a change in voting procedure which must be precleared under Section 5 of the VRA.  That means you have to hire very expensive lawyers to justify the change.

Texas election law requires that election precincts not cross, congressional district, legislative district, SBOE district, commissioner precinct, justice of the peace precinct boundaries, and council districts in large cities.

The rule about commissioner precincts is why every county in Texas, even Loving, has at least 4 election precincts.  After the 1990s redistricting, the number of precincts in Harris County roughly doubled, because the congressional and the two legislative redistricting were done independently using the census geography which only shows number of people and race, and not whether a boundary makes sense.  There were precincts with 5 voters because where one district line zigged another zagged.  The Comical would do interviews with election judges in their carport which served as the polling place, and they would say that they had voted when the polls opened, and their neighbor Joe would come over after work, and the other voter had moved.

Since the 1990s redistricting was based on race, it is likely that any area on one side of a line had a different racial makeup than those on the other side.  So if you had a nice rectangular precinct on one side of the road, and another on the other side that was split based on race, you won't want to explain to the USDOJ why you took this nice rectangular precinct on one side of the road and merged it with this odd shaped finger that happened to be 70% minority.  You would simply split the other precinct to conform to the legislatively mandated district lines.

One reasons that the the 1990s lines were so irregular was that the lines had been drawn to pick up apartment complexes for inclusion in the Ben Reyes or Craig Washington districts, and to separate them from the single family homes in the Bill Archer district.  Because Houston doesn't have zoning, there can be apartments in the the middle of single-family residential, and these were connected in an attempt to include the fewest houses.

After the most egregious districts (congressional and senate) were overturned, there was the possibility of merging some precincts back together, and that was done in some cases.  The number of precincts in Harris County is much less than the peak.  It went from around 666 to 1300, and now is somewhere around 850.  The reason that Harris County precinct numbers don't make any sense is that when precincts are merged, the highest number is retired.  And then when they need a new one, they will just take the lowest available.

During the 2000s redistricting, an effort was made to follow existing election precinct boundaries.  While this tended not to make matters worse, it didn't necessarily improve things, because some precinct boundaries are fossilized remains of the 1990s racial divisions.

Currently, elections precincts are limited to a maximum of 5000 voters.  In the past, this maximum this number based on the size of the county.  Montgomery County had to redo most their election precincts when their population reached a certain threshold.  This maximum may not be effectively as large as it used to be, because of it become harder to purge registration lists.

[freepcrusher]

this is why I don't like what Martin Frost, Tom DeLay or even Sam Spade did to the maps. What they're doing is basically making apartheid districts. It Frost's case it was uber white districts and in Spade and DeLay's case it is uber Hispanic and black districts.

If you want to see congressional districts that are as close as possible to what they are now, come and see my new districts on this website:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/1/17/163956/012

[muon2]

Sam, I think that your DFW minority districts are not as VRA-proof as the TX GOP might want. This provides more margin to correct for the VAP, and even citizen VAP if needed. This will be especially needed since this would go through the Obama DOJ. So, here's my bullet-proof minority districts for the Metroplex.



CD 30:
White 27%, Black 53%, Asian 3%, Hispanic 16%
Obama 79%, McCain 20%

CD 33:
White 21%, Black 9%, Asian 3%, Hispanic 66%
Obama 66%, McCain 33%

I don't think GOP would have any problem drawing those districts, even though they are *butt ugly* (to put it mildly).  I didn't do it, because, odd as it may sound, I'm aiming for something that looks a bit nicer.

Here's what I'm going to point out - Texas is really looking for fights with the Feds right now, and vice versa.  The reason why I'm drawing the maps that raise questions is because Texas lawmakers are almost certainly going to produce one based on their interpretation of LULAC v. Perry that comes as close to skirting the lines as they think possible.

In particular, they are going to read LULAC v. Perry as saying that 'so long as there is 50%+1 Latino citizen VAP, the first Gingles threshold requirement is not met, and, therefore, there is no Section 2 violation.'  TX-23, in that instance had 55% Latino population, 50% VAP and 46% citizen VAP.  TX-23 is probably going to be a tad lower on the citizen VAP than other parts of Texas, but if we have 59% to 60% Latino population, there will be 50%+1 citizen VAP.

And when the Obama Justice Dept. blocks this map through Section 5, they're going to argue the unconstitutionality of the Section 5, which the Court successfully ignored in Northwest Austin Municipal District No.1 v. Holder, but left quite a cautious tone on its continued viability (of course, Roberts does not speak for Kennedy, naturally)..

You'll see this game come to fruition in the next couple of maps I draw.

EDIT:  I see Torie's new post which suggests question between citizen VAP and regular VAP.  I am almost certain it is citizen VAP, just having read the ruling again before making the above post, but I am trying to show the number where 50%+1 citizen VAP is reached, at least along the border in Texas.

I see you went with something close to my "butt-ugly" version for minority districts in DFW.

TX-30
a) Johnson
b) Obama 82, McCain 17 (previous Obama 82, McCain 18)
c) Black 51, White 25, Hispanic 20, Asian 3
d) Now extends to reach the blacks in Tarrant County.  Also now majority-black.

TX-33
a) None
b) Obama 69, McCain 30
c) Hispanic 63 (63.16), White 21, Black 13, Asian 3
d) What an ugly looking strip of Hispanic minority-majority land.

[krazen1211]

Are VAP/Citizen VAP problems going to be as dire in the Houston/DFW districts as they are in South Texas?

I always figured part of the problem was that South Texas was full of illegals and thus Citizen VAP is going to be proportionately lower compared to the urban cities, which should have more citizens.

If so, I figure you might as well rebundle 9 and 18 and get yourself a 'free' hispanic district.

[minionofmidas]

In apologies for my Demmymander, here's "Civic Exercise" Texas, ie something similar to what a redistricting commission might draw if it existed (and given the recent Florida and California initiatives, who knows what the future has in store on that front?) Except they'd do a much better job at dividing Houston Blacks from Houston Hispanics, and maybe the Lubbock-Amarillo thing (why is that "never going to happen in real life", Sam?) Oh, and they'd baulk at the donut I drew around San Antonio, but it was the most reasonable thing to do with the territory I had left.

This has - 8 Hispanic seats (3 South Texas, 2 San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, El Paso), two of them not entirely unwinnable for Republicans (Farenthold's and one in San Antonio), 2 Black seats (Houston and Dallas), 3 White Democrats (2 Austin and Fort Worth) and one coalition seat in Houston that it's really hard to tell who'll win it except that they'll be a Democrat.
Oh, also one seat where, had it existed last decade, Nick Lampson would presumably have lost in 2010 but definitely not before, and one marginal McCain seat in Dallas that demographic change will do in before the decade's out.



CD1 (blue) Tyler, Marshall, Longview, Nacogdoches
70 - 9 - 19 (format is white - hispanic - black where over 5 - asian where over 5)
69-30 McCain
Gohmert

CD2 (dark green) Texarkana to Dallas exurbs
78 - 8 - 12
69-30 McCain
Hall

CD3 (purple) North Tarrant to Denison
81 - 10
66-33 McCain (Denton town is ridiculously liberal btw, wtf is up with that?)
Open, right?

CD4 (red) most of Collin County
77 - 10 - 5 - 8
62-37 McCain
Sam Johnson (probably)

time for the DFW map



CD5 (yellow) Northeast Tarrant, much of Denton Counties
79 - 10 - 5 - 5
65-35 McCain
Burgess

CD6 (bluegreen) Northwest Dallas County, bleeding over the line into Denton and Collin
56 - 22 - 15 - 7
52-47 McCain
Marchant

CD7 (grey) Northeast Dallas County
67 - 16 - 8 - 9
56-43 McCain
No idea whereabouts in Dallas Hensarling might be living but it could be here. Sessions also has to be living in Dallas someplace.

CD8 (lavender) South Dallas. That ugly spike is sort of unavoidable.
28 - 24 - 46
78-22 Obama
One would hope Eddie Johnson lives here

CD9 (teal) Central Dallas and points west
34 - 50 - 10 - 6
57-42 Obama
Open, or maybe Sessions

CD10 (pink) Fort Worth
48 - 28 - 20
56-43 Obama
Granger (?)

CD11 (light green) suburbs and exurbs southeast, south and west of Fort Worth
81 - 10 - 5
67-32 McCain
Open (unless Granger's home is here after all. She'd probably run here, anyways.)

CD12 (light blue) Wichita Falls, Abilene, and points south to the Colorado and north into the entire eastern half of the Panhandle (it's outside the picture, but it's the three eastern columns of counties except in the northernmost row, where it's only the easternmost county.)
78 - 15 - 5
76-23 McCain
Thornberry

CD13 (tan) Lubbock and Amarillo
63 - 28 - 6
73-26 McCain
Neugebauer

CD14 (golden brown) Killeen, Temple, Georgetown
68 - 15 - 13
59-39 McCain
Open

CD15 (orange) Waco and points northeast around Corsicana, including more genuinely suburban territory than I would have liked
72 - 14 -12
66-33 McCain
Barton

CD16 (green) Bryan, Huntsville, Lufkin
68 - 13 - 16
66-33 McCain
Flores

CD17 (slate) Beaumont/Port Arthur, Galveston/Texas City, Baytown
62 - 14 - 22
58-41 McCain
Open

CD18 (yellow) Montgomery County and some northeast Harris burbs
78 - 12 - 7
71-28 McCain
Brady, Poe (just about - he lives in Humble which is the westernmost area in the Harris portion here)

time for the Harris map



CD19 (that faintly disgusting undefinable shade between green and brown) Northwest Harris County
66 - 18 - 9
64-35 McCain
*Probably* open

CD20 (pale pink) North Houston
18 - 46 - 32
76-24 Obama
Gene Green may or may not live here, I've no idea

CD21 (maroon) Centralish Houston
30 - 40 - 23
66-33 Obama
Jackson-Lee may or may not live here, I've no idea

CD22 (brown) West Houston Whiteyland
65 - 21 - 6 - 8
62-37 McCain
Culberson, I suppose?

CD23 (light teal) either side of the Harris-Fort Bend line
24 - 26 - 36 - 13. Wow at the Asian %age here. Yes, it's a coalition seat strictly speaking, not a Black seat.
70-29 Obama
Al Green

CD24 (purple) based around Pasadena
47 - 39 - 8 - 5
56-43 McCain
Open

CD25 (rosé) Brazoria, outer Fort Bend, suburban Galveston County
65 - 21 - 8 - 7
66-33 McCain
Paul, probably Olson (though he might be in Al Green's seat too)

CD26 (dark grey) a Coastal Bend seat based around Victoria, with all sorts of areas that don't quite belong thrown in around the edges
58 - 32 - 7
65-34 McCain
Open

CD27 (another tealish shade) North Austin, Round Rock
63 - 21 - 9 - 7
59-39 Obama
McCaul, Carter. Lol.

time for the San Antonio/Austin map



CD28 (lavender) South Austin, San Marcos
57 - 31 - 7
62-36 Obama
Doggett

CD29 (another weird shade) a donut with two fillings. Suburban Bexar, White Flight Comal County, a lot of Hill Country
63 - 31
65-34 McCain
Open unless one of the San Antonio Republicans actually lives here. Smith should run here, anyways.

CD30 (red) East San Antonio
41 - 47 - 9
52-47 Obama
Smith supposedly lives in San Antonio, and so does Canseco. No idea where, but one wonders if Canseco might hold this one down.

CD31 (yellow) West San Antonio. Seeing how exactly two CDs fit within those ring roads, it'd be  criminal not to. Split it north-south instead and the map looks even nicer and the northern seat is marginally McCain, but also marginally majority white. Which wouldn't fly with a commission reading it's VRA caselaw, not with the southern seat next door quite packed with Hispanics.
27 - 65 - 5
59-39 Obama
Don't know which district Gonzalez lives in, either.

time for the South Texas map



CD32 (orange) Corpus to Harlingen
27 - 69
54-45 Obama
Farenthold

CD33 (blue) Brownsville to McAllen
12 - 87
68-32 Obama
Hinojosa

CD34 (green) Mission to Del Rio
8 - 91
71-29 Obama
Cuellar

CD35 (purple) Permian, San Angelo, some Hill Country, Trans-Pecos even though it hurt to let it go
53 - 41
71 - 28 McCain
Conaway

CD36 (not shown) El Paso
18 - 77
65-34 Obama
Reyes

[freepcrusher]

here's who i see in the 113th delegation

1. Gohmert
2.  Hall (if he doesn't croak)
3. Jane Nelson
4. Johnson
5. Burgess
6. Marchant
7. Sessions vs. Hensarling primary (Sessions winning)
8. EBJ
9. Rafael Anchia
10. Wendy Davis
11. Granger
12. Thornberry
13. Nawgubower
14. Dan Gattis maybe?
15. Barton
16. Flores
17. Craig Eiland maybe?
18. Brady
19. Poe
20. G. Green
21. SJL
22. Culberson
23. A. Green
24. jackson guy in the state senate
25. Olsen
26. not sure
27. Mark Strama
28.  Doggett
29. Smith
30. Canseco or Van de Putte
31. Gonzalez
32. Farenthold (if he keeps the seat)
33. Hinojosa
34. Cuellar
35. Conaway
36. Reyes

[jimrtex]

What would the UIL do?

In apologies for my Demmymander, here's "Civic Exercise" Texas, ie something similar to what a redistricting commission might draw if it existed (and given the recent Florida and California initiatives, who knows what the future has in store on that front?) Except they'd do a much better job at dividing Houston Blacks from Houston Hispanics, and maybe the Lubbock-Amarillo thing (why is that "never going to happen in real life", Sam?) Oh, and they'd baulk at the donut I drew around San Antonio, but it was the most reasonable thing to do with the territory I had left.

When it was first possible to draw a Lubbock - Amarillo it would have been very tightly drawn, perhaps going down the New Mexico border to avoid Plainview, but leaving out Dalhart, or it could go further east, to cut down the population, but it would ended up being a donut.  Even now, while the Lubbock-Amarillo district looks neat, you have a huge area which you disguised by cutting off the map.

CD3 (purple) North Tarrant to Denison
81 - 10
66-33 McCain (Denton town is ridiculously liberal btw, wtf is up with that?)
Open, right?

University of North Texas, Texas Womens University.  Also Denton is far enough north that it really isn't a suburban.   Because the Denton-Collin border is east of the Tarrant-Dallas border, the suburban growth is in the SE corner, and then you hit a lake so it isn't solid growth to Denton.  Suburban growth from Fort Worth is just barely lapping into Denton County.

CD10 (pink) Fort Worth
48 - 28 - 20
56-43 Obama
Granger (?)

CD11 (light green) suburbs and exurbs southeast, south and west of Fort Worth
81 - 10 - 5
67-32 McCain
Open (unless Granger's home is here after all. She'd probably run here, anyways.)

Granger was mayor of Fort Worth.

CD17 (slate) Beaumont/Port Arthur, Galveston/Texas City, Baytown
62 - 14 - 22
58-41 McCain
Open

The state highway between Galveston and Port Arthur was wiped out several decades ago and not replaced.  Your district looks OK simply because lower Galverton Bay is in Galveston County, and upper Galveston Bay is in Chambers.

[Torie]

Sam's Texas map version 1. Sam you seem to have a hanging precinct in South Texas. But I did that in PA, because to do otherwise meant going through a 90% Obama precinct or two to get to South Philly to append to PA-07 (a zone that was very sorely needed to append to PA-07), so I noted that a couple of precinct lines would simply have to be redrawn (so that the connection could be over the Philly airport runway, and a Gulf Oil tank farm)!







Dallas


Austin-San Antonio


Houston


South Texas


Sam TX Map version 2 (change in CD's in San Antonio-Houston corridor from version 1)

[Sam Spade]

For some reason, it told me that it was contiguous, but I changed it in later versions when I saw it wasn't.  It's not a big deal - you can change things around Harlingen an the numbers are not particularly different.

[freepcrusher]

does anyone know or remember in 1981 when they were redrawing the lines and there was controversy over the redrawing of the DFW Area.

I believe there was a plan to draw a CD 26 which would have been in south Dallas where pretty much every black precinct was packed in. The remaining parts of CD 24 and CD 5 would then absorb the area in CD 3. I believe there were people in the NAACP who wanted a district that would elect a black person, but there were blacks in the legislature, who although they were supportive of blacks in office, they placed the priorities of the democratic party first.

The controversy is seen in the 1988 election map. Dukakis won District 5 50-49 and District 24 52-47. The black areas of Dallas was split in half and added to suburban areas. District 24 took in Grand Prairie, Irving, Carrollton, Coppell and District 5 took in Mesquite. District 3, which bordered both districts to the north, gave Bush 74 percent as the democrats packed every WASP precinct into that district. 

[jimrtex]

For some reason, it told me that it was contiguous, but I changed it in later versions when I saw it wasn't.  It's not a big deal - you can change things around Harlingen an the numbers are not particularly different.

In the federal district court trial on the 2003 district boundaries, the issue of the district boundaries in the Harlingen area were raised.  The plaintiffs claimed that these really weird boundaries (between 27 and 15) were drawn to cut out 15 Hispanic voters.  The State responded that they had simply followed the city limits, including fence lines of Harlingen.  For that reason, Torie's boundaries might be suspect since they ignored conventional redistricting practice of respecting city boundaries, especially if it appeared that the intent was done to deny Hispanics an equal opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice.

[Sam Spade]

I kind of did a run over the numbers and came to these conclusions with regards to a really pretty looking map in a GOP gerrymander with the present numbers.

Sam I require you to do the following:

5 Districts entirely within Harris County

Really easy actually.  You get three GOP CDs with 60%+McCain (Culberson, Poe and new Congressman), two Dem CDs, one Hispanic majority and one black majority (Green and Lee) completely within Harris and one Dem CD that extends into Fort Bend County to pick up the rest of Houston and the black precincts around Missouri City.  Yawn.

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This is the one problem county in a pretty Republican gerrymander.  You can't get the new Hispanic-majority CD into safe Hispanic-majority territory without pushing into Tarrant County (and TX-30 remains not black majority, but who cares).  You can create one Republican CD entirely within Dallas County, but the third CD would become pretty marginal.  If you say "screw the Hispanic district", then you can extend that third CD to another county to make it safe Republican.

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One GOP CD in NE Tarrant County.  Easy.  Then you've got to make it look ugly.  Give the most severely Dem areas to a CD that extends out to the west and north (not Denton).  Create the other GOP CD from the leftovers.  If the Hispanic CD moves into Tarrant, your job becomes easier and you may not have to extend out to the counties to the west and north (not Denton)

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Basically, you have Gonzalez and then you can draw Smith (and possibly Canseco) into a safe Republican seat, with the Bexar County excess Hispanics going into one of the other Hispanic-majority seats.

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So you pack Doggett into Austin.  Yawn.  As I showed in the last map, if you push McCaul's seat west, instead of east, taking in San Angelo, you make it much more safe even though you take in all the other Travis precincts.  It makes a lot more sense to do this now that Flores holds TX-17 (you can draw his seat to take in a lot (if not all) of the former TX-10 rural areas.

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Already did this.  Johnson's seat makes the most sense, of course.

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Already did this - the excess goes into the Trans-Pecos area seat.

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You can make Hinojosa's CD the entire county and spread it into Cameron to take precincts away from TX-27 to make it more Republican-friendly.  Not that difficult really.