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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Rate this prediction
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Question: From 2024 - 2048, no President will win an election without Georgia.
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Total Voters: 17

Author Topic: Rate this prediction  (Read 441 times)
Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« on: October 02, 2019, 08:02:03 am »

Is Georgia the new Ohio?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2019, 11:43:13 am »

AZ is more likely to be the new Ohio
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President Biden
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2019, 11:44:07 am »

No, a better candidate would be WI (2008-2048)
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2019, 12:11:03 pm »

More likely Texas. It would be what New York was in the 19th century.
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gracile
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2019, 12:18:03 pm »

Given the state's heavy Democratic trend, I think it is unlikely. It's possible that a future Republican presidential win would not include Georgia.
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Thegreatwar18
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2019, 06:19:27 pm »

More likely Texas. It would be what New York was in the 19th century.
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2019, 06:02:42 am »

AZ is a really good choice, I think it will be flip-floppy, but regularly trend against the nation. And it only has 11 12 EVs. It may also become East California and solid D.

Democrats will start winning without WI, which will also drop to 9 EVs in 2030 or 2040.

TX will be a genuine, pure swing state, but probably by 2024 will still not be in a Democrat's victory path. And I think 2024 favors Democrats because we'll either have a Dem incumbent or coming off of eight completely intolerable years of Trump/Pence/Whatever. I'd look at 2028 as the year it's genuinely a monster purple state.
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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2019, 01:04:54 pm »

Others mentioned AZ and TX, but I think FL and PA also deserve to be mentioned. Both are large states that straddle different regions (FL doing so in a unique way), and each could go in different directions depending on the exact composition of the parties going forward.
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2019, 02:08:49 pm »

Others mentioned AZ and TX, but I think FL and PA also deserve to be mentioned. Both are large states that straddle different regions (FL doing so in a unique way), and each could go in different directions depending on the exact composition of the parties going forward.

I agree on Pennsylvania, especially if the Rust/Sun Realignment is really a thing (and it is).

Saying no President will win without GA doesn't imply that there won't be other states that every victorious President wins. Florida and Ohio have been perfect since 1996 (and Ohio has been perfect since 1964).

If the Democrat wins in a very close race in 2020, there's a decent chance of them winning without Florida, though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2019, 05:01:52 pm »

It could be true for the 2020s but beyond that, I don't think it has long term viability as a bellwether.
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