NBC/WSJ: Obama leads Romney by 7; Thune by 20; Palin by 22

[pbrower2a]

When an unknown like Thune is doing better then you, when you are the most well-known candidate out there, you know you do not have a shot.

Palin is really racking up some impressive numbers in these various polls.

Anyone care to make a map?

A 61-39 split of the vote allows strange things to happen. Think of 1964, when LBJ won a raft of states that have never voted for a Democratic nominee for President since then:

Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming

It would so depress GOP turnout that Democrats would have chances to pick up some House and Senate seats that they haven't  held for decades.  

[pbrower2a]

This is about what a 55-45 split of the popular vote looks like in 2012, figuring that shifts are slightly stronger where Obama lost but generally not enough to swing any state that voted strongly against him in 2008. Figure that we are out of Afghanistan or are headed out on a timetable of our choosing, which is enough to swing Georgia (heavy military presence), and large growth in the Hispanic electorate shapes the vote in Colorado into a solid D state but almost swings Arizona and Texas.   

Beyond a 55-45 Obama win, strange things happen. I figure that many who had misgivings about Obama on "race" start voting for him.

[pbrower2a]

pbrower2a, I see your point with a 55-45 victory. Not so sure about Georgia, but your scenario shows an increase in the white vote for Obama, a continued strong African American turnout, a popularity rebound, and a massive popular vote win, which could well give Obama a state like Georgia.

President Obama wins in Georgia, a state with a strong military presence, if he is able to have a shrinking number of US troops in Afghanistan with a graceful exit. In 2008, Georgia had an unusually high percentage of its young-adult vote voting for John McCain -- probably because much of it is military. John McCain, unlike any obvious GOP candidate for the Presidency in 2012, probably won some votes because of his reputation as a war hero that Romney. Huckabee, or Palin would not get.

But successful extraction of US troops from Afghanistan just hasn't happened yet.  I can't rule it out, though. President Obama has proved very successful so far in achieving his military and foreign policy.