OH-PPP: Obama leads Huckabee/Romney within MoE, Palin/Gingrich further behind

[Tender Branson]

Obama approval rating: 42-49

45-44 Obama vs. Huckabee
44-42 Obama vs. Romney
47-41 Obama vs. Gingrich
49-42 Obama vs. Palin

Favorable Ratings:

41-36  (+5) Huckabee
36-39   (-3) Romney
37-52 (-15) Palin
30-51 (-21) Gingrich

PPP surveyed 510 Ohio voters from December 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_1214930.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Favorables among the small GOP sub-sample (PPP will have an oversample for the 2012 numbers):

69-19 Huckabee
67-21 Palin
57-22 Romney
57-23 Gingrich

[Brittain33]

This matches up with the Michigan poll numbers and where one would expect Ohio to fall based on the national numbers... just like 2004, it will be a dogfight for the state if Obama is still competitive for the presidency.

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin will be released today or tomorrow I guess and Pennsylvania leads in the voting for the next states (North Carolina will be also polled again this weekend).

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/voting-time.html

You can choose between Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I'm a little bit shocked Huckabee isn't leading. 

[DrScholl]

Huckabee is the most generic candidate at this point and the least defined.

[albaleman]

Pretty good news considering the hammering the Dems received in the Ohio midterms.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Not surprising that Huck does the best

(and I'm talking about the race overall too; even though he only leads in 3 states now, Mitt, Palin and Newt are all doing even worse)

[Franzl]

Anyone else find it interesting that Romney polls 43% in MA and only 42% in OH?

Not really very surprising. Home state and name recognition primarily.

[Eraserhead]

Obama actually (barely) leads Romabee in Ohio? Interesting. If either of the other two are nominated the election is over anyway, so it hardly matters.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama actually (barely) leads Romabee in Ohio?

Yes, despite only having a 42% job approval rating in the state.  As PPP says in their writeup:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/ohio-poll-preview.html

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[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin will be released today or tomorrow I guess and Pennsylvania leads in the voting for the next states (North Carolina will be also polled again this weekend).

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/voting-time.html

You can choose between Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Florida has now taken the lead, Pennsylvania has fallen to 3rd place after Texas.

[Skill and Chance]

Wisconsin will be released today or tomorrow I guess and Pennsylvania leads in the voting for the next states (North Carolina will be also polled again this weekend).

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/voting-time.html

You can choose between Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Florida has now taken the lead, Pennsylvania has fallen to 3rd place after Texas.

Why do we care about Texas?  It won't even be competitive unless Obama already has >57% of the national popular vote.  Even the senate race is a shoe-in for whichever R wants to replace KBH barring a major scandal. 

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin will be released today or tomorrow I guess and Pennsylvania leads in the voting for the next states (North Carolina will be also polled again this weekend).

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/voting-time.html

You can choose between Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Florida has now taken the lead, Pennsylvania has fallen to 3rd place after Texas.

Why do we care about Texas?  It won't even be competitive unless Obama already has >57% of the national popular vote.  Even the senate race is a shoe-in for whichever R wants to replace KBH barring a major scandal.  

It could show whether the Obama Administration is gaining in some of the states that he lost by large margins. If Obama has been gaining in Texas what he has been losing in some Northern states, then that could show a lessening of interstate polarization.

Of course, both Pennsylvania (despite a Quinnipiac poll) and Florida would be far more interesting.

Pennsylvania can probably be colored red now. None of the imaginable GOP nominees has any connection to Pennsylvania. If they would all lose in Ohio, they would also lose in Pennsylvania.