Democratic suburbs abandon Gregoire
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  Democratic suburbs abandon Gregoire
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Sam Spade
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« on: November 18, 2004, 05:37:53 PM »

Another reason why Maria Cantwell should breathe a sigh of relief if this Rossi margin holds up.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/200159_govcounties18.html

Thursday, November 18, 2004

Democratic suburbs abandon Gregoire

By CHRIS McGANN AND ANGELA GALLOWAY
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTERS

Suburban counties that haven't swung Republican in more than two decades helped Dino Rossi finish ahead in Washington's suspenseful race for governor.

He won by more than 6,000 votes in Snohomish County and more than 12,000 in Pierce County -- places Democratic gubernatorial candidates have dominated in every election since 1980.

Democrat Christine Gregoire easily took populous King County by more than 150,000 votes, and led in left-leaning counties such as Thurston, Grays Harbor, Cowlitz and Whatcom. But Rossi's 31-county winning streak fell only eight short of a statewide sweep.

That was no accident. Since being elected as state Republican Party chairman four years ago, Chris Vance has been targeting what he calls the "suburban crescent" -- counties such as Pierce and Snohomish that don't share urban King County's love for all things liberal.

"The Democrats love to brag about how they are making inroads in east King County, which, I have to admit, they are," Vance said. "But that is being offset by the enormous gains we are making in Pierce, Snohomish, Clark, Skagit, Mason -- everywhere else.

"King County is becoming more Democratic, but the rest of the state is becoming more Republican. This governor's race is really demonstrating that."

How did Rossi do so well in a state that supported the Democratic candidate for president by 7 percentage points? In so many counties, including former Democratic strongholds? And why was this race so close?

Observers, party leaders and former Gov. John Spellman -- the last Republican candidate for governor to win in Pierce and Snohomish counties, in 1980 -- seem to agree:

Rossi successfully sold himself as a moderate, raised enough money to level the name-recognition playing field, and capitalized on a sense among voters that Democrats have had their chance at the helm for long enough and it's time for a change.

 
 
And, in the race that many said was hers to lose, critics say Gregoire ran an overly cautious and lackluster campaign.

Vance said Rossi and other Republican candidates -- including state Attorney General-elect Rob McKenna -- were able to win without carrying King County.

"They are winning in Pierce, Snohomish and Kitsap (counties) and they are above 40 percent in King County," Vance said. "That's the key.

"They did it quite simply because they are great candidates and the Democrats were not able to turn them into the caricature, cartoon character, extremist, right-wing Republicans that the Democrats love to create. That in a nutshell is the secret to Washington state politics."

Spellman agreed.

"Traditionally, Pierce County and Snohomish County have been looked at as Democratic counties," Spellman said. "(Rossi's) done well in them. I'm surprised. Those are hard counties to do well in."

Until about a week ago, Rossi's backers said he had to poll above 40 percent in King County to win the race. Some put the minimum at 42 percent or more. At the end of the day yesterday, Rossi's 40 percent in King County appeared to be enough.

Spellman said several things contributed to Rossi swaying suburban voters to his side.

"There is a strong mood for change," Spellman said. "That existed statewide except in Seattle. It's a kind of a, 'Gee, it's been a long time and maybe we could do better.' "

Travis Ridout, a political science professor at Washington State University, said Rossi did a good job at portraying himself as a reform candidate without being "scary."

"He was very careful in the campaign -- especially on the issue of abortion, he kind of brushed that off," Ridout said. "He was successful at not focusing on an issue in which probably the majority of Washingtonians disagree with him."

Since Spellman was defeated in his 1984 bid for re-election, the GOP has nominated four socially conservative candidates that appealed to the party's right-of-center base. But those candidates failed to win over independent voters who usually cast the deciding votes in statewide races here. And they all lost.

From day one, Rossi has campaigned hard for those swing voters.

On the stump, he avoided hot-button issues that many use as litmus tests to distinguish between centrists and conservatives. For example, he acknowledged he opposes abortion and gay-marriage rights, but minimized the significance of those stands to his would-be administration. Bottom line, he said: He's not running on those issues.

Compared with 2000 GOP candidate John Carlson, Rossi had several key advantages. For one, Carlson had a more difficult time avoiding being positioned as a conservative because he was a talk-show host on a conservative radio station that featured Rush Limbaugh. Carlson even shared the stage with Limbaugh at one GOP event during the campaign.

Also, Rossi benefited from running for an open seat because Democratic Gov. Gary Locke declined to seek a third term. (This year marked the first open governor's race since 1996.) When Carlson ran, he was trying to unseat a popular incumbent.

Despite running for an open seat, Rossi also was able to campaign as an agent of change from the status quo. Like Locke, Gregoire positions herself in the center. Indeed, many have long considered Gregoire to be Locke's heir.

During the campaign, she avoided discussing Locke, reluctant to distinguish herself from the incumbent who endorsed her before the primary and still carries a base of supporters.

Observers also credit Rossi with building a strong campaign fund. He began collecting major pledges of financial support even before he announced his candidacy. Each candidate spent about $6 million this year. Combined, Locke and Carlson spent $6.4 million in 2000.

Spellman compared Democrats crossing over party lines to vote for Rossi to the "Reagan phenomenon." And he said Kerry's success in counties that favored Rossi should come as no surprise.

"At the national level, this state is even more so a Democratic state; the state of Magnuson, Jackson, Murray and Cantwell. At one point we had two Republican senators -- briefly, very briefly. That's because I appointed one of them."
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bgwah
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2004, 06:38:06 PM »

I blame Snohomish County! They were one of like 5 counties to vote Cantwell, and if they voted Gregoire she would've won. She lost with out it.

Pierce? It has Tacoma but its never been that liberal.

I live in some of the wealther whiter suburbs in East King County. A LOT of Kerry-Rossi supporters.

It was Gregoire's race to lose.

Although its not quite over yet.
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A18
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2004, 06:42:16 PM »

Why aren't you a Democrat?
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A18
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2004, 07:18:07 PM »

The national vote is completely irrelevant, but I agree that Washington isn't becoming more Republican.

Still, I don't understand why bgwah has an orange avatar.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2004, 12:23:31 PM »

The national vote is completely irrelevant

Did Wyoming trend Democrat from 1960 to 1964?
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