Virginia with a swing back to the GOP, or temporary blip?

[sg0508]

The Old Dominion, a traditionally conservative state has been moving back to the middle on a steady trend over the past 15 years with the growth in Arlington.  Virginia Beach has also moved back to the middle.  With minority and youth turnout in 2008, Obama broke the losing streak for the democrats.  They also held the statehouse until 2009 and won both Senate seats.  Then McDonnell won the statehouse back for the GOP in a landslide; his opponent wasn't strong and the GOP went to work this year in the House on Election Day.

Temporary swing back, or what are we facing?  You have to figure Obama's chances there are good again, especially if the turnout is anywhere near what it was in 2008.  Jim Webb is definitely on the GOP's radar, but they really don't seem to have anyone that can draw conservatives out and hold back the turnout in the DC/VA burbs and cities.

[5280]

I can definitely see it swinging toward the GOP if the unemployment is stagnate or goes above 10%, economy isn't going anywhere in the next 2 years. That and people lose enthusiasm with Obama's performance.

Also, what factors in is the candidate the GOP picks for their challenger against the president.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't know that you could call it a 'steady trend.' Aside from President, Virginia has been a competitive state for quite a long time. On the other hand, Virginia gave the Democrat around 45% in 1996, 2000 and 2004. The real switch was between 2004 and 2008, when the Republican got the 45%. While the growth of the DC area had something to do with it, I would say even more was the low approval ratings of Bush and black voter enthusiasm for Obama. I expect 2012 to be competitive again in Virginia, but with much less of an edge toward Obama. Virginia Beach isn't going Democratic anytime soon as long as the GOP has a decent candidate.

[DS0816]

I suspect Virginia will become a bellwether state. A winning Republican, a winning Democrat -- it'll be in the column of the prevailing candidate. Not just because it was Obama's No. 1-closest state (percentage and margin) … but because we do get a handful of bellwethers (Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and, with Va., latests in Colorado and Iowa, which may be replacing its immediate neighbor south) for an undetermined period in which they routinely back the winner. If the White House flips back to the Republicans in 2012, Virgina goes red. If Obama is re-elected in 2012, he once again carries Va. -- and probably as one of his three-closest states (percentage and/or margin).