Final Ohio Popular Vote Totals

[rbt48]

Right now, Bush leads Kerry in Ohio by 136,483 votes (2,796,147 to 2,659,664).  Of course, Kerry delayed (and the networks obliged) and held off conceding until mid day Wed, Nov 3, when it became clear to him that not enough provisional votes existed to give him the state.

So, what will the final certified totals yield?  Will Kerry close in dramatically or will the Bush lead actually grow?  Here is your chance to make your prediction on mysterious, amorphous Ohio provisional ballots.

Good luck!

[Ben.]

No idea, however i heard that 70-80% of the ballots where viable... i'd say, if i have to, no real change perhaps a modest boost for Kerry but nothing noticable.   

[agcatter]

little or no change in the margin.

[Gabu]

Little or no change.

Who is the person who voted that Kerry would win?

[A18]

Probably jfern

[The Vorlon]

For what ir's worth...

If the ballots break like the counties they were cast in...

and 80% of ballots are counted...

Kerry gains +/- 250 votes or so...

This provisional ting is a non issue...

   Counted         Projected   
COUNTY   Bush   Kerry   Provisional    Bush   Kerry
Adams   7480   4189   184   94   53
Allen   31629   15822   1374   733   367
Ashland   15826   8345   629   329   174
Ashtabula   20621   23545   1142   427   487
Athens   9912   17369   2504   728   1275
Auglaize   16437   5729   647   384   134
Belmont   15275   17256   1067   401   453
Brown   12480   7058   326   167   94
Butler   106735   54185   5793   3074   1560
Carroll   7531   6190   304   133   110
Champai   11432   6752   555   279   165
Clark   34444   32824   1279   524   499
Clermont   61694   25318   1818   1031   423
Clinton   12625   5244   378   214   89
Columbia   25212   22884   1085   455   413
Coshoct   9121   6763   277   127   94
Crawford   13667   7626   424   218   121
Cuyah   215624   433262   24788   6590   13241
Darke   17869   7663   710   398   170
Defiance   11018   6683   672   335   203
Delaware   52237   26491   1891   1004   509
Erie   18019   20652   972   362   415
Fairfield   42057   24321   1306   662   383
Fayette   7221   4244   293   148   87
Franklin   234196   275573   14446   5309   6247
Fulton   13443   8098   381   190   115
Gallia   8320   5188   574   283   176
Geauga   29957   19571   668   323   211
Greene   46841   29349   2127   1046   655
Guernsey   9095   7072   558   251   195
Hamilton   215639   190956   14386   6104   5405
Hancock   24345   9930   791   449   183
Hardin   8187   4723   349   177   102
Harrison   4318   3824   89   38   33
Henry   9770   5027   250   132   68
Highland   11871   6012   494   262   133
Hocking   6821   6065   251   106   95
Holmes   8299   2622   170   103   33
Huron   14553   10354   670   313   223
Jackson   8382   5519   422   204   134
Jefferson   16887   18674   650   247   273
Knox   16677   9613   689   350   202
Lake   60615   57471   1975   811   769
Lawrence   15178   11874   599   269   210
Licking   48092   29350   1565   778   474
Logan   14084   6644   650   353   167
Lorain   59751   76512   4134   1450   1857
Lucas   85405   128874   6719   2142   3233
Madison   10931   6080   392   202   112
Mahoning   47968   81500   2717   805   1368
Marion   16729   11492   928   440   302
Medina   47499   35725   1266   578   435
Meigs   6156   4334   240   113   79
Mercer   15022   4924   931   561   184
Miami   33039   17039   1609   849   438
Monroe   3370   4164   132   47   58
Mont   134716   138262   9227   3643   3739
Morgan   3695   2810   160   73   55
Morrow   10313   5651   314   162   89
Musking   21901   16050   871   402   295
Noble   3799   2618   75   36   24
Ottawa   11820   10915   469   195   180
Paulding   6074   3544   243   123   72
Perry   7767   7205   428   178   165
Pickaway   13864   8388   553   276   167
Pike   6385   5865   285   119   109
Portage   35054   39915   1445   541   615
Preble   13512   7165   493   258   137
Putnam   14196   4348   246   151   46
Richland   36253   24056   1357   653   433
Ross   16940   13701   563   249   201
Sandusky   17824   13909   760   342   266
Scioto   17938   16438   867   362   332
Seneca   15624   10770   494   234   161
Shelby   15825   6337   791   452   181
Stark   89859   92295   6653   2626   2697
Summit   116184   152897   5932   2049   2697
Trumbull   40220   65321   2700   823   1337
Tuscara   23359   18460   987   441   349
Union   15593   6546   436   246   103
Van Wert   10484   4026   297   172   66
Vinton   3194   2612   129   57   46
Warren   66523   25399   1465   848   324
Washi   17029   12137   643   300   214
Wayne   31433   19455   818   404   250
Williams   11633   6231   694   362   194
Wood   32574   28216   2655   1138   986
Wyandot   6956   3554   138   73   37
Total   2796147   2659664   155428   62085   62257

[Nym90]

For what ir's worth...

If the ballots break like the counties they were cast in...

and 80% of ballots are counted...

Kerry gains +/- 250 votes or so...

This provisional ting is a non issue...

   Counted         Projected   
COUNTY   Bush   Kerry   Provisional    Bush   Kerry
Adams   7480   4189   184   94   53
Allen   31629   15822   1374   733   367
Ashland   15826   8345   629   329   174
Ashtabula   20621   23545   1142   427   487
Athens   9912   17369   2504   728   1275
Auglaize   16437   5729   647   384   134
Belmont   15275   17256   1067   401   453
Brown   12480   7058   326   167   94
Butler   106735   54185   5793   3074   1560
Carroll   7531   6190   304   133   110
Champai   11432   6752   555   279   165
Clark   34444   32824   1279   524   499
Clermont   61694   25318   1818   1031   423
Clinton   12625   5244   378   214   89
Columbia   25212   22884   1085   455   413
Coshoct   9121   6763   277   127   94
Crawford   13667   7626   424   218   121
Cuyah   215624   433262   24788   6590   13241
Darke   17869   7663   710   398   170
Defiance   11018   6683   672   335   203
Delaware   52237   26491   1891   1004   509
Erie   18019   20652   972   362   415
Fairfield   42057   24321   1306   662   383
Fayette   7221   4244   293   148   87
Franklin   234196   275573   14446   5309   6247
Fulton   13443   8098   381   190   115
Gallia   8320   5188   574   283   176
Geauga   29957   19571   668   323   211
Greene   46841   29349   2127   1046   655
Guernsey   9095   7072   558   251   195
Hamilton   215639   190956   14386   6104   5405
Hancock   24345   9930   791   449   183
Hardin   8187   4723   349   177   102
Harrison   4318   3824   89   38   33
Henry   9770   5027   250   132   68
Highland   11871   6012   494   262   133
Hocking   6821   6065   251   106   95
Holmes   8299   2622   170   103   33
Huron   14553   10354   670   313   223
Jackson   8382   5519   422   204   134
Jefferson   16887   18674   650   247   273
Knox   16677   9613   689   350   202
Lake   60615   57471   1975   811   769
Lawrence   15178   11874   599   269   210
Licking   48092   29350   1565   778   474
Logan   14084   6644   650   353   167
Lorain   59751   76512   4134   1450   1857
Lucas   85405   128874   6719   2142   3233
Madison   10931   6080   392   202   112
Mahoning   47968   81500   2717   805   1368
Marion   16729   11492   928   440   302
Medina   47499   35725   1266   578   435
Meigs   6156   4334   240   113   79
Mercer   15022   4924   931   561   184
Miami   33039   17039   1609   849   438
Monroe   3370   4164   132   47   58
Mont   134716   138262   9227   3643   3739
Morgan   3695   2810   160   73   55
Morrow   10313   5651   314   162   89
Musking   21901   16050   871   402   295
Noble   3799   2618   75   36   24
Ottawa   11820   10915   469   195   180
Paulding   6074   3544   243   123   72
Perry   7767   7205   428   178   165
Pickaway   13864   8388   553   276   167
Pike   6385   5865   285   119   109
Portage   35054   39915   1445   541   615
Preble   13512   7165   493   258   137
Putnam   14196   4348   246   151   46
Richland   36253   24056   1357   653   433
Ross   16940   13701   563   249   201
Sandusky   17824   13909   760   342   266
Scioto   17938   16438   867   362   332
Seneca   15624   10770   494   234   161
Shelby   15825   6337   791   452   181
Stark   89859   92295   6653   2626   2697
Summit   116184   152897   5932   2049   2697
Trumbull   40220   65321   2700   823   1337
Tuscara   23359   18460   987   441   349
Union   15593   6546   436   246   103
Van Wert   10484   4026   297   172   66
Vinton   3194   2612   129   57   46
Warren   66523   25399   1465   848   324
Washi   17029   12137   643   300   214
Wayne   31433   19455   818   404   250
Williams   11633   6231   694   362   194
Wood   32574   28216   2655   1138   986
Wyandot   6956   3554   138   73   37
Total   2796147   2659664   155428   62085   62257

Is there statistical evidence that the ballots will break the same as the rest of the county, however? Who, demographically speaking, is more likely to cast a provisional ballot? There's no reason to just assume they will be the same as the typical voter within their county. In the complete absence of other evidence, it might be the best we have to go with, but demographic breakdowns of those who cast provisional ballots as well as past history of how these ballots have gone in Ohio would be better to go with.

[A18]

It doesn't matter how they break. If you think Ohio's changing, you're a moron.

[Ben.]

It doesn't matter how they break. If you think Ohio's changing, you're a moron.

Agreed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All the votes should be counted (in ALL states not just Ohio), but it's not changing the overall outcome.
Might swing a county or three though.

[opebo]

It doesn't matter how they break. If you think Ohio's changing, you're a moron.

Well, OHIO is changing - it is chaning from a prosperous middle-class bastion to a poverty-stricken backwater .  But as far as this election goes, its not changing.

[agcatter]

Who are the idiots that voted that the state was going to flip?  Are those people serious?

[Nym90]

It doesn't matter how they break. If you think Ohio's changing, you're a moron.

I don't think it's changing, but provisionals tend to break for Democrats, and I remember some Republicans arguing that it might be evidence of fraud or some such. I think it was in relation to the Washington Governor's race.

[WalterMitty]

i hope the provisionals are being counted in pennsylvania and michigan.

[Democratic Hawk]

i hope the provisionals are being counted in pennsylvania and michigan.

I'd like to think that every vote is being counted everywhere in the interest of fairness.

I think Bush will win Ohio by between 100,000 to 135,000

Dave

[The Vorlon]

Is there statistical evidence that the ballots will break the same as the rest of the county, however?

In Washington State Governors race this year, the provisionals broke very similarly to the rest of the ballots within the county they were cast in - within a couple % actually.

FWIW

[Sam Spade]

Don't know whether is legit or not, though it looks like it is.

Here's how the provisional and absentee ballots broke down for Ohio:

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/Results/RaceSummary.aspx

President/Vice President 
Bush, George W.  Republican  76,631  55.92% 
Kerry, John F.  Democratic  59,710  43.57% 
Badnarik, Michael   367  0.27% 
Peroutka, Michael Anthony   324  0.24% 
Cobb, David Keith-WI   4  0.00% 
Duncan, Richard A.-WI   0  0.00% 
Zych, Thomas F.-WI   0  0.00% 
Parker, John T.-WI   0  0.00% 
Harris, James -WI   0  0.00% 
Schriner, Joe -WI   0  0.00% 
Total Votes 137,036   

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably jfern

I voted margin will be under 100,000

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For what ir's worth...

If the ballots break like the counties they were cast in...

and 80% of ballots are counted...

Kerry gains +/- 250 votes or so...

This provisional ting is a non issue...

   Counted         Projected   
COUNTY   Bush   Kerry   Provisional    Bush   Kerry
Adams   7480   4189   184   94   53
Allen   31629   15822   1374   733   367
Ashland   15826   8345   629   329   174
Ashtabula   20621   23545   1142   427   487
Athens   9912   17369   2504   728   1275
Auglaize   16437   5729   647   384   134
Belmont   15275   17256   1067   401   453
Brown   12480   7058   326   167   94
Butler   106735   54185   5793   3074   1560
Carroll   7531   6190   304   133   110
Champai   11432   6752   555   279   165
Clark   34444   32824   1279   524   499
Clermont   61694   25318   1818   1031   423
Clinton   12625   5244   378   214   89
Columbia   25212   22884   1085   455   413
Coshoct   9121   6763   277   127   94
Crawford   13667   7626   424   218   121
Cuyah   215624   433262   24788   6590   13241
Darke   17869   7663   710   398   170
Defiance   11018   6683   672   335   203
Delaware   52237   26491   1891   1004   509
Erie   18019   20652   972   362   415
Fairfield   42057   24321   1306   662   383
Fayette   7221   4244   293   148   87
Franklin   234196   275573   14446   5309   6247
Fulton   13443   8098   381   190   115
Gallia   8320   5188   574   283   176
Geauga   29957   19571   668   323   211
Greene   46841   29349   2127   1046   655
Guernsey   9095   7072   558   251   195
Hamilton   215639   190956   14386   6104   5405
Hancock   24345   9930   791   449   183
Hardin   8187   4723   349   177   102
Harrison   4318   3824   89   38   33
Henry   9770   5027   250   132   68
Highland   11871   6012   494   262   133
Hocking   6821   6065   251   106   95
Holmes   8299   2622   170   103   33
Huron   14553   10354   670   313   223
Jackson   8382   5519   422   204   134
Jefferson   16887   18674   650   247   273
Knox   16677   9613   689   350   202
Lake   60615   57471   1975   811   769
Lawrence   15178   11874   599   269   210
Licking   48092   29350   1565   778   474
Logan   14084   6644   650   353   167
Lorain   59751   76512   4134   1450   1857
Lucas   85405   128874   6719   2142   3233
Madison   10931   6080   392   202   112
Mahoning   47968   81500   2717   805   1368
Marion   16729   11492   928   440   302
Medina   47499   35725   1266   578   435
Meigs   6156   4334   240   113   79
Mercer   15022   4924   931   561   184
Miami   33039   17039   1609   849   438
Monroe   3370   4164   132   47   58
Mont   134716   138262   9227   3643   3739
Morgan   3695   2810   160   73   55
Morrow   10313   5651   314   162   89
Musking   21901   16050   871   402   295
Noble   3799   2618   75   36   24
Ottawa   11820   10915   469   195   180
Paulding   6074   3544   243   123   72
Perry   7767   7205   428   178   165
Pickaway   13864   8388   553   276   167
Pike   6385   5865   285   119   109
Portage   35054   39915   1445   541   615
Preble   13512   7165   493   258   137
Putnam   14196   4348   246   151   46
Richland   36253   24056   1357   653   433
Ross   16940   13701   563   249   201
Sandusky   17824   13909   760   342   266
Scioto   17938   16438   867   362   332
Seneca   15624   10770   494   234   161
Shelby   15825   6337   791   452   181
Stark   89859   92295   6653   2626   2697
Summit   116184   152897   5932   2049   2697
Trumbull   40220   65321   2700   823   1337
Tuscara   23359   18460   987   441   349
Union   15593   6546   436   246   103
Van Wert   10484   4026   297   172   66
Vinton   3194   2612   129   57   46
Warren   66523   25399   1465   848   324
Washi   17029   12137   643   300   214
Wayne   31433   19455   818   404   250
Williams   11633   6231   694   362   194
Wood   32574   28216   2655   1138   986
Wyandot   6956   3554   138   73   37
Total   2796147   2659664   155428   62085   62257

It was Democrats who were challenged, not Republicans. You are not informed. These are going overwhelming Democrat.

[Will F.D. People]

It was Democrats who were challenged, not Republicans.

I am curious where you have seen information on the party affiliation of the people who cast provisional ballots. Is this available from an authoritative source?

Also are you saying that there were people who showed up at the polls, had the proper ID, were on the voting list for the precinct, and that these people were still challenged and soley on the basis of the challenge, they cast provisional ballots?

FWIW after the election I saw an interview with Secretary Blackwell of Ohio who said that based on past experiences, most provisional ballots were cast by first-time voters and most would be accepted. This makes sense to me in that the wheels of bureacracy may not have gotten all newly-registered people on the printouts used at the precincts.

[rbt48]

Seems to me that Republican GOTV efforts were just as likely to have yielded a provisional ballot as Democratic Party efforts.  Wouldn't you think that many would be folks who hadn't voted in some years who had registration in question forcing the ballot to be a provisional one?

I think the Ohio Secretary of State website does not address the provisional ballot results at this time.  I don't think they have touched their results page since early election night.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It was Democrats who were challenged, not Republicans.

I am curious where you have seen information on the party affiliation of the people who cast provisional ballots. Is this available from an authoritative source?

Also are you saying that there were people who showed up at the polls, had the proper ID, were on the voting list for the precinct, and that these people were still challenged and soley on the basis of the challenge, they cast provisional ballots?

FWIW after the election I saw an interview with Secretary Blackwell of Ohio who said that based on past experiences, most provisional ballots were cast by first-time voters and most would be accepted. This makes sense to me in that the wheels of bureacracy may not have gotten all newly-registered people on the printouts used at the precincts.

Yes, the Republicans were challenging people like no tommorrow, you apoligist.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Seems to me that Republican GOTV efforts were just as likely to have yielded a provisional ballot as Democratic Party efforts.  Wouldn't you think that many would be folks who hadn't voted in some years who had registration in question forcing the ballot to be a provisional one?

I think the Ohio Secretary of State website does not address the provisional ballot results at this time.  I don't think they have touched their results page since early election night.

Kerry won amoung people who hadn't voted in 2000.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry won amoung people who hadn't voted in 2000.

I have it on good authority that he also won handily among ambidextrous voters who were born on a Thursday.

Kerry won people who hadn't voted before 54-46 here, wiseass

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

[DaleC76]

Kerry won amoung people who hadn't voted in 2000.

I have it on good authority that he also won handily among ambidextrous voters who were born on a Thursday.

Kerry won people who hadn't voted before 54-46 here, wiseass

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

He also won among people who didn't vote, cumwad!

He and Bush tied amoung people who really meant to vote, but just didn't get around to it.  That was a 3% increase for Bush since 2000.