Swing States in 2008 (user search)
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  Swing States in 2008 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Swing States in 2008  (Read 8488 times)
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« on: November 19, 2004, 03:52:33 PM »

Virginia a swing state? Sure...lol
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2004, 04:05:38 PM »


In 2000 Bush got there 4.17% above his national number.
In 2004 he got there 2.71% above his national. This trend started in 1992. If the 2008 election is close on the national level,  VA will be a swing state. If the election is not close, then the term "Swing State" is meaningless.

Thats really meaningless. What means something is the amount in which he won Virginia by.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2004, 09:13:31 AM »


Lets say that the Kerry GOTV machine cranked things up in NY and CA for some reason.  If he had gotten an additional 4 million votes in those 2 states and won the PV -- but no other state had a single vote difference -- you would be on here talking about how dramatically some states swung to Bush by comparing the state result to the national average. 

Impossible situation. Had Kerry gained 4 million in these two states he would have proportionally gained in all other states.
Nothing in presidential race is CA specific.  If Kerry had gained, for example 7% in CA then he would have gained 5% - 9% in each and every state including UT and WY.

Why? The voters in UT and WY would have known that CA was going to vote at a higher rate and instict would have told them to go out and vote? lol Ridiculous theory.
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