Swing States in 2008

[WalterMitty]

Virginia a swing state? Sure...lol

In 2000 Bush got there 4.17% above his national number.
In 2004 he got there 2.71% above his national. This trend started in 1992. If the 2008 election is close on the national level,  VA will be a swing state. If the election is not close, then the term "Swing State" is meaningless.

Thats really meaningless. What means something is the amount in which he won Virginia by.

In 1984 Reagan won MA by 2.79% margin  ( 15% less than his national margin).
Was MA a Rep state in 1984 ?
No.

umm yes.  mass was a republican state in 84.  we award electoral votes to the candidate that won the state...not by 'trends'...or how well they did compared to the national number.

[WalterMitty]

she wasn't talking about the EV numbers, but whether that state would be considered safe for the Republicans in 1988 or not.

If all that matters is the margin won by, then Louisiana would've been considered safe for Gore in 2000.

whatever gets you through the night, brtd.

remember...there is a small factor calle dthe CANDIDATES that have a lot to do with how a state votes.